Caulfield Cup 2019: Race-by-race guide and betting strategy for 2400m handicap

A wide-open Caulfield Cup became a crapshoot at the barrier draw but the booking of a big-race rider has this stallion primed.

The 142nd running of the great 2400m handicap that is the Caulfield Cup is here again.

A wide-open affair became a crapshoot when several favourites suffered poor barrier draws, but the experts at punters.com.au have the inside look at who to back in our ultimate guide.

HOW TO WATCH

Catch all the action on Sky Racing or Channel 7 from midday. The feature race is 5.15pm (AEST).

CAULFIELD CUP — RACE 9, 5.15pm

Mirage Dancer (2) looks over the odds at $15 (Odds: BetEasy). The European import, set to have his first run for the in-form Busuttin and Young team, boasts an outstanding record at 2400m (10:3-4-2) and his 0.5L 2nd to the 2018 Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution over this distance last year obviously reads incredibly well. He also has form around Benbatl who performed at such a high level in Australia last spring. From his middle barrier he should be able to find some nice cover just beyond midfield and the booking of big-race rider Ben Melham is a real positive.

Mr Quickie (12) ran a slashing 3rd in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) on resumption, savaging the line after getting a long way back in the field. He again went back in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start but failed to make any impression, labouring home in an underwhelming display. It was later reported that the Stokes gelding was quite stirred up pre-race, wasting energy before the gates had even opened. You should always forgive a good horse one bad run, and given Mr Quickie has won 9 from 15 — his bad runs are few and far between. The last time he stepped out over this trip he sailed home from beyond midfield to take out the G1 Queensland Derby.

Vow And Declare (14) chased home Mr Quickie in the Queensland Derby and was unlucky not to finish closer after covering extra ground in the run. He then went to the G3 Tatt’s Cup (3000m) and strolled home by 3.25L in an imposing staying performance. His first-up effort in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) was outstanding, going stride-for-stride with then-Cox Plate favourite Mystic Journey from the 200m to the post. The extra 400m here is perfect and Williams should be able to find a nice spot just forward of midfield from the favourable draw.

Mustajeer (4) is coming off a stylish victory in the Ebor Handicap (2787m) at York just 56 days ago. Fitness shouldn’t be an issue for the Australian Bloodstock-owned galloper and all reports indicate that he’s settled in well in his new surroundings. He has the talent to win but the barrier is a worry given he’s a horse who has shown a real liking for the rail when racing in Europe.

Danny O'Brien's Vow and Declare. Picture Jay Town

Constantinople (11) has a stack of ability but is a quirky customer whose mind can often wander at the business end of a race. If he brings his A-game to Caulfield and isn’t overawed by the occasion (big crowd, big field, different track to what he’s used to) he’ll take plenty of beating … but it’s a big ‘if’. The amount of gear changes is a fair indication that he has his issues: cross-over noseband first time, ear muffs pre-race, lugging bit first time, and winkers first time.

Mer De Glace (3), the Japanese galloper, has won five on the bounce, all at 2000m-2200m. He’s a classy type but may not find conditions to suit here given his best efforts have come on bone-dry tracks.

SPEED MAP

Wolfe looks the leader ahead of Finche working over from out wide. Angel of Truth and Hartnell are likely to look for spots in the first five or six, while Crown Prosecutor should have the early toe to hold a position just in behind the leaders. Mustajeer probably has no real choice but to drift back from his barrier. It wouldn’t come as a huge shock to see Constantinople settle closer than the above graphic indicates.

VERDICT

2. Mirage Dancer

12. Mr Quickie

14. Vow And Declare

4. Mustajeer

$100 BETTING STRATEGY

$40 on Mirage Dancer (2) @ $15

$30 on Mr Quickie (12) @ $8.50

$30 on Vow And Declare (14) @ $9

Mirage Dancer. (AAP Image/Vince Caligiuri)

RACE 1 — KENO CLASSIC HANDICAP (1700m) 12.15pm

Vigere will probably roll across to take up the running. Arctic Shock won’t be too far away from the inside gate. Extreme Pride and Quality Seeker should settle forward of midfield.

Starcaster (3) strikes a winnable race first-up in Australia. The Freedman import hit the line nicely in a recent 1190m trial at Cranbourne and comes here in winning form having bolted in over 2385m at York at his most recent outing. He has a bit of an awkward alley (10) to overcome but looks to have a higher ceiling than most of his rivals.

Vigere (11) maps to lead and there’s no reason why he can’t show further improvement third-up after a strong on-pace victory over 1600m at Seymour last start. Third in that race was Diplomac Jack who was a winner at his next start.

Arctic Shock (7) found So You Swing a bit too good last start but she meets that galloper 2.5kg better at the weights and she’ll strip fitter fourth-up. Melham should land in a handy trailing position from barrier one. So You Swing (8) also maps favourably from barrier three with Lane piloting.

Extreme Pride (9) is shooting for four on the bounce after wins at Pakenham, Seymour and Sale. This is harder but she was a dominant winner last start and is undoubtedly on an upward curve.

VERDICT: Starcaster (3) on top

RACE 2 — QMS MEDIA PLATE (1400m) 12.50pm

Speed out wide from Stay Gold and Wild Vixen — one of those two should lead. Charleise and Night Express should settle in the first four or five. Ready Set Sail will probably drop out the back from barrier two.

Charleise (7) looks to have the right form for this. She was competitive against the likes of Loving Gaby and Exhilarates in the G3 Champagne (1200m) at Moonee Valley last start, whereas the vast majority of her rivals here are stepping out of Maiden or Class 1 grade. The Maher and Eustace-trained filly should find a nice spot in running from barrier six.

Pretty Brazen (3) didn’t beat much last start but it was hard not to be impressed by her final 200m, careering away to score by 4.25L. She’s likely to get a fair way back from the wide draw but should be strong late provided Dee can find a cart into the race.

Ready Set Sail (1) did little on resumption but The Valley probably isn’t her ideal track. Two-back she dead-heated with Thousand Guineas winner Flit, which is obviously handy form for a race like this.

Night Express (12) won in good time on debut, with the first two home putting 7L on the rest of the field. She should land in the first four from the inside alley. Splendoronthegrass (8) warrants consideration third-up.

VERDICT: Charleise (7) for the win

RACE 3 — POLYTRACK GOTHIC STAKES (1400m) 1.25pm

Lord Markel will probably lead here from barrier two. Hilo maps for a nice run just off the speed. Alabama Express should land in the first five, with Astraeus looking to hold a forward position from the inside alley.

Hilo (3) beat Thousand Guineas placegetter Southbank two-back before finishing midfield in the Guineas Prelude over this route last start. Although he was 6.25L off the winner, the fact that he crossed the line alongside Super Seth reads well. This is a drop in class and he maps to get every possible from barrier four.

Triton Rising (7) backed up a dominant maiden win on the Pakenham Synthetic with an eye-catching 3rd at Flemington last start. He was no match for Hilo when they clashed at Sandown three-back but the Sebring colt is improving with each run.

Heirborn (1) is 2 from 2 and the form out of his last-start win has stacked up well through 3rd-placegetter Vegas Knight. Hard to know where he’ll end up from the wide draw but he can’t be ruled out. Lord Markel (9) broke his maiden in fine style last start but this is obviously much harder.

VERDICT: Hilo (3) for the win

RACE 4 — LADBROKES CLASSIC (2000m) 2pm

Thought Of That led and absolutely bolted in last start, so you’d imagine the same tactics will be adopted here. Brilliant Venture and Miroku shouldn’t be too far from the action. Huntly Castle and Warning are likely to drift back from their wide gates.

Thought Of That (7) led and strolled home by a lazy 8L at Donald last start. Obviously this is much harder but he shapes as though he’ll relish 2000m and Meech might just be able to dictate terms to suit from the front. The son of So You Think had genuine excuses when well-beaten two-back so don’t read too much into that performance.

Warning (3) got off heels and charged to the line last start to take out the Listed Super Impose (1800m) in dominant fashion. The extra 200m here won’t pose him any problems and he takes on similar opposition.

Miami Bound (9) hit the front but was run down by Moonlight Maid and Fascino in the G2 Edward Manifold (1600m) at Flemington last start. She certainly lost no admirers there after back-to-back Bendigo victories and she maps to enjoy a lovely run in this just forward of midfield.

Confident the winner comes from the above three but Huntly Castle (2) is in the minor mix.

VERDICT: Thought Of That (7) faces a stiff class rise but looks promising

RACE 5 — ALINGHI STAKES (1100m) 2.35pm

Vinicunca looks the leader from barrier two, with Working From Home likely to push forward from out wide to race in 2nd. Tatiara, Demerara and Victory Kingdom are likely to be looking for spots just off the pace.

Soothing (3) was awesome winning in Adelaide last start, scorching home from 12th at the 400m to salute by a widening 1.8L. That followed an unlucky 2nd in Sydney when checked at a vital stage. The Godolphin mare has clearly come back in terrific order from a little freshen and the likelihood of a strong tempo suits.

Prophet’s Thumb (4) isn’t a great beginner, so barrier one isn’t exactly a positive for her. Dunn should however be able to angle off the fence in the smallish field, as Damian Lane did when guiding the Pfieffer mare to a stylish victory at this track/distance last start. She’s still very much on the rise third-up.

Humma Humma (2) has a sticky gate to overcome but she’s an absolute ripper who rarely runs a bad race. The McArdle mare is yet to miss a place in three Caulfield runs and there was plenty to like about her first-up victory at The Valley when flashing home from the rear.

The speedy Vinicunca (5) should give her rivals something to chase from barrier two. She was well-beaten in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) here but her two fresh efforts have been good. Demerara (1) is also in the mix coming back from the G2 Bobbie Lewis (1200m).

VERDICT: Soothing (3) on top in a strong mares race

RACE 6 — ETHEREAL STAKES (2000m) 3.10pm

Tricky race to map. Atame and Celestial Falls will probably work forward from out wide, with Ocean Miss potentially coming across with them. Snapdancer and Gamay can race handy.

Leven Lass (3) worked home nicely for 6th in the G2 Edward Manifold (1600m) last start and looks suited stepping up to 2000m. The daughter of Reliable Man comes into this fourth-up and has experience at Caulfield having chased home Skiddaw here two-back. She might need a slice of luck from barrier two but looks overs at $13.

Celestial Falls (2) enjoyed a relatively easy time of it up front last start and was able to bound away in the straight to score by 1.25L ahead of Gamay. She has since trialled at Warwick Farm to keep her ticking over for this and her only ‘average’ showing in five outings came when finishing 5th to the smart California Zimbol in a 1200m race.

Cape Leopard (14) jumped from 1300m to 1800m last start and picked up nicely late to grab 3rd behind Celestial Falls. The daughter of Cup winner Fiorente looks a genuine 2000m+ horse and could be over the odds at $19.

Snapdancer (4) had her chance last start but ran well and should appreciate the extra distance here after back-to-back 1400m runs. Vegas Jewel (7) has won 2 from 2 and couldn’t have been any more impressive scoring over the mile at The Valley last time.

VERDICT: Open affair but happy to have something on Leven Lass (3) each-way at $13

RACE 7 — CAULFIELD SPRINT (1000m) 3.45pm

I Am Immortal should have the early toe to get across and lead from barrier nine. Not Enough Effort went back last start but has shown early dash in the past. Miss Leonidas and Mclaren are also quick beginners so the tempo should be hot.

Found this race incredibly difficult and will be playing wide from a quaddie perspective. With minimal confidence, God Of Thunder (9) goes on top. The lightly-raced Hawkes gelding got a long way back at The Valley last start before charging home for 2nd behind Humma Humma. He can settle closer here from barrier three.

Intuition (5) isn’t renowned for his first-up performances (5:1-0-0) but he did win at Listed level back in April when 43 days between runs. The Godolphin galloper has trialled twice in preparation for this following a G3 placing in Queensland prior to a spell.

Miss Leonidas (4) is sure to cop a bit of pressure in the early stages but if she can hold the front and pinch a length or two at the top of the lane, she should prove hard to run down. The speedy mare split Nature Strip and Sunlight in the G1 Moir Stakes (1000m) last start, which obviously reads well for this.

Malibu Style (2) is always thereabouts in these sprint handicaps, while Crystal Dreamer (1) was a stylish winner here on resumption.

VERDICT: God Of Thunder (9) on top but not overly confident here

RACE 8 — MOONGA STAKES (1400m) 4.30pm

Streets of Avalon may have a look for the front from the outside gate but Tom Melbourne might keep him out. Terbium and Desert Lord can race handy. Land of Plenty and Royal Meeting will probably settle in the second half of proceedings.

Royal Meeting (2) won a G1 at just his second career start, defeating Hermosa who went on to record back-to-back G1 victories. That form looks strong enough to be highly-competitive in this G3 event against a number of horses who have probably hit their career peaks already. The bin Suroor galloper will probably end up in the second half of the field from the wide draw but expect him to be charging late.

Desert Lord (9) was good in the G3 Ritchie (1400m) behind a couple of subsequent G1 winners in Kolding and Fierce Impact. He then went to the Epsom where he probably struggled to see out the Randwick mile. The drop back to 1400m looks suitable and he maps for a nice trail just off the leaders.

Land Of Plenty (1) has been beaten big margins at his last couple but has trialled three times in preparation for this first-up assignment. He’s had 5 starts over this route for 3 placings and Lane boasts an incredible record on the well-travelled galloper (6:2-1-2).

Tom Melbourne (6) should run his usual honest race without winning.

VERDICT: Royal Meeting (2) for the win

RACE 9 — CAULFIELD CUP (2400m) 5.15pm (Preview at top of page)

RACE 10 — TRISTARC STAKES (1400m) 5.50pm

Jamaican Rain should find the top without burning too much early petrol. Savatiano and Spanish Whisper will probably work across from out wide. Naantali and Bella Martini map for favourable runs just off the speed.

Invincibella (1) looks overs. The veteran mare won the G1 Tatt’s Tiara (1400m) two-back after covering ground, defeating Pohutukawa and Savatiano who she meets again here. She was a bit plain on resumption at Rosehill but may have needed the run first-up over 1400m. She’s only missed a place twice in 7 second-up outings.

Pohutukawa (7) charged home for 2nd in an on-pace dominated affair at Flemington last start. She’s again likely to be giving her rivals a big start from barrier 11 but she should be just about at her peak third-up. Any give in the track would be a bonus.

Naantali (10) did enough first-up in the G2 Gilgai (1200m) to suggest she can improve over this more suitable trip. The Maher and Eustace-trained mare loves it here at Caulfield (6:2-3-0) and maps for a lovely run just off the pace.

Savatiano (6) was a touch disappointing over this trip last start but she’s never finished worse than 2nd in five second-up runs. She needs to improve but certainly looks capable of doing so based on her record.

Doubt the chances end there in a tough race to close the meeting.

VERDICT: Something on Invincibella (1) each-way

Finche. (AAP Image/Vince Caligiuri)

These articles were originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission