Our Desert Warrior goes into battle for punters at Royal Randwick
GET all you need to know on today’s races as Ray Thomas gives you track conditions, big bets, punter warnings and expert analysis.
Weather: Cool and cloudy with a clearing shower and a forecast top temperature of 24c.
Track: Dead (5)
Rail: 7m out
CAULFIELD
Weather: Cool day with a clearing shower and a forecast top temperature of 22c.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: 3m out
BE WARY
After some rain fell in Sydney earlier this week, Randwick’s track surface is a dead 5 but punters should take careful note of the first couple of races to determine how the track is playing.
Randwick has had a tendency to dry out slowly in recent times so I expect the track to remain in the dead range. Caulfield is a good 3 but there is some rain forecast in Melbourne today.
With the rail out 3m the track should race fairly.
ROYAL RANDWICK
THE BEST BET
Our Desert Warrior (race 2) looks the day’s best bet - anywhere. He needed the run first-up with fifth to Almighty Charge over 1400m here two weeks ago.
Our Desert Warrior shouldered 60.5kg that day and was out-sprinted from the turn although he boxed on well. He will certainly strip fitter for that outing, is suited by the step up to 1600m on his home track, and significantly he drops 5kg to 55.5kg.
There isn’t a lot of depth to this field and he should prove too good.
THE NEXT BEST
Valentia (race 1) was well beaten behind Rubick in fast time over 1000m here a month ago but there was a lot to like about his debut effort.
An imposing colt, Valentia was warming to his task nicely late to claim third prize - giving the distinct impression he will appreciate going to 1200m today.
Valentia is by Fastnet Rock and cost $1.35 million as a yearling. He is out of a Mister C mare and the breed generally excel on rain-affected surfaces so today’s dead-to-slow surface will suit this colt.
Valentia has a race fitness edge over favourite Double Happy and rates as the one to beat.
VALUE BET
Sweet Idea (race 5) goes into her showdown with Guelph in the Light Fingers Stakes on the back of a two-start summer campaign for wins at Wyong and then the Magic Millions Guineas which might give her a decisive edge.
She has race fitness over her side and also excels on rain-affected track surfaces.
Sweet Idea was given another barrier trial hitout late last month to fine tune her for today’s race. Guelph is vulnerable first-up and is yet to win at 1200m but is into odds-on while Sweet Idea is around the $5 mark and represents good value.
THE WHISPER
Leebaz (race 6) has shown considerable promise during his short career to date. He’s bred to stay being by Zabeel but seems to be blessed with good natural pace.
He won first-up last preparation over 1300m at Hawkesbury then backed up that effort to win on the Kensington over 1550m again by controlling the race from in front.
He has had two barrier trials to prepare for his return today. Leebaz is an emerging talent and is capable of developing into an autumn carnival contender. This isn’t a strong race and he is set for a winning return.
CAULFIELD
THE BEST BET
Not Listentin’tome (race 2) could be a star. He won his maiden on debut back in September but by the end of spring had improved his record to two wins and two seconds from fours including finishing runner-up to the outstanding Zoustar in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington.
Resuming today but scored a stylish barrier trial win at Rosehill earlier this week and is primed for a winning comeback. He was entered for Royal Randwick today but the stable elected to send this three-year-old to Melbourne for the Zeditave Stakes, Drawn ideally, he should get the gun run and prove too classy for this field.
NEXT BEST
Fiorente (race 5) is first-up from a spell over 1800m but this won’t bother him. The Melbourne Cup winner has been given some solid exhibition gallops between races in Sydney and Melbourne in recent weeks plus a barrier trial at Randwick late last month. He usually performs well and this isn’t an overly strong weight-for-age race today.
I’m anticipating Damien Oliver will position Fiorente about midfield and then let the stayer’s powerful finish do the rest. He will win.
VALUE BET
Diamond Glow (race 3) has had two runs back after a long spell and her form doesn’t read all that encouragingly on paper — but she has raced without luck.
She came from near last early for a good first-up fifth in a 1000m scamper at Flemington before finishing only ninth to Spirits Dance in the Kevin Hayes Stakes last start.
Nothing went right for her last start as she drew wide, was forced off the track on the turn and wasn’t suited by the sit-sprint tactics. The 1400m will suit her today and she is going to strip much fitter. The $21 on offer is very appealing. Terrific each way chance.
THE WHISPER
Bull Point (race 6) was dynamic first-up in the Manfred Stakes, dominating his rivals to score very impressively.
Richly talented colt who showed last start that he has returned a more mature and complete racehorse this preparation. This is a big jump in grade to take on the older horses at weight-for-age but three-year-olds have a good record in the Futurity and Bull Point can improve that record today.
He should get a lovely run probably trailing Moment Of Change and can out-sprint his rivals over the final 400m.
THE BIG MONEY
ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1, Valentia has been well backed on TAB Fixed Odds from $5.50 to $4.80 after a wager of $700 at $5.50.
Race 2, Our Desert Warrior is firm at $1.85 after a wager of $1000 at those odds.
Race 3, Kukri has had some support at big odds including a wager of $500 at $15 while Transonic continues to attract support and is $6 to $3.80 after bets of $625 at $5, $1000 at $4.60 and $800 at $4.20.
Race 4, That’s A Good Idea is $6 into $4.20 after a bet of $500 at $6 while his stablemate Terravista is the big firmer, $5 to $3 after bets of $700 at $5 and $4000 at $3.30.
Race 5, Guelph has firmed from $1.95 to $1.90 after some huge bets including $10,000 and $1000 at $1.95 and $1000 at $1.90, Sweet Idea has firmed from $6.50 to $5 after a bet of $600 at $6, and Champagne Cath is $11 to $9.50 after a bet of $400 at $11.
Race 6, Gamblestown is $7 to $6 after a bet of $600 at $7.
Race 7, Appearance is $3.70 to $2.80 after a bet of $2000 at $3.50. Race 8, Any Day Will Do is $10 to $9 after a bet of $400 at $10.
CAULFIELD
Race 2, Not Listenin’tome has been heavily backed from $2.20 to $1.95 after bets of $2000 at $2.20 and $1000 at $2.10.
Race 3, Marianne is $3.30 to $2.35 after bets of $1000 at $3.30 and $1800 at $2.40.
Race 4, Bring Something has firmed from $8 to $4.80 after bets of $400 [twice] at $8 and $800 at $5.50, Saguaro is firm at $9 after bets of $900 at $9 and $500 each way at $9/$2.93, and Deliberate is $5.50 to $3.70 after bets of $500 at $5.50 and $840 at $4.60.
Race 5, Fiorente has firmed from $2.20 to $2.10 after bets of $4000, $2500 and $1750 at $2.20, and $1000 [twice] at $2.10, Star Rolling is $6 to $5.50 after a bet of $600 at $6.
Race 6, Smokin’ Joey is $18 to $13 after bets of $800 at $18 and $1400 at $15, while Bull Point has been well backed from $3.40 to $2.80 after bets of $1670 at $3, and $2000 and $1500 at $2.90.
Race 7, Rubick is a firm favourite being backed form ig$3 to $2.90 after bets of $5000 and $1100 at $3, $5000, $3000, $2000 and $1200 at $2.90, $3000 and $1000 at $2.80 and $1100 at $2.90, Chivalry is $8 to $7.50 after bets of $1430 at $8 and $1000 at $7, Jabali has been backed from $18 to $14 after bets of $3000/$1000 at $18/$4.40 and $625 at $16, Malaguerra is $41 to $31 after a bet of $2000/$1000 at $41/$9, Earthquake is firm at $3.50 after a bet of $5000 at $3.50 followed two bets of $1000 at $3.60, Nayeli is $10 to $9 after bets of $5000 at $10, $1000 [twice] at $9, and $500 each way at $9/$2.68.
Race 8, Lankan Rupee is into $2.80 after bets of $1550 at $3, and $1800, $1400 and $1000 at $2.80, Knoydart is $7.50 into $5 after bets of $600 at $7.50, $1500/$1000 at $7/$2.45 and $2000 at $6, Shamal Wind is $9 to $8.50 after bets of $1000/$500 at $9/$2.93, $400 at $9 and $600 at $8.50, Gregers is $21 to $15 after a bet of $400 at $18, and Minaj has firmed from $26 to $18 after bets of $400 at $26 and $400 each way at $21/$5.70.
Race 9, Arinosa is $4.80 to $4.40 after a $800 wager at $4.60, and Bonaria is $5 to $4.80 after a bet of $1000 at $4.80.
INTERSTATE
Eagle Farm race 2: Trakstar
Eagle Farm race 4: Rare Fragrance
Morphettville race 6: Caton
Morphettville race 7: Wise Journey
PROVINCIAL MAIL
Gosford race 3: Happy Meteor
Gosford race 8: Countryman
#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.
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