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Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Five Diamonds Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses Saturday’s 10-race card for Five Diamonds at Rosehill Gardens, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.

Shayne O’Cass
4 min read
November 7, 2024 - 2:22PM
Hold All Tickets - Punters (Episode 12) Champions Day

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses Saturday’s 10-race card for Five Diamonds at Rosehill Gardens, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.

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RACE 1: MIDWAY BENCHMARK 72 (1300m)

MONTE SUPREME (7) deserves some credit for her last start seventh in a good looking Midway at Randwick two weeks ago bearing in mind she drew 14 of 14, was 14th at the turn yet clocked in a bit over two and a half from the winner – and what’s more, he was behind a wall of horses and wasn’t fully tested. The market will tell the story with CONTRIBUTINGFACTOR (2) given he is resuming, off a couple of ripper trials too. This being 1300m brings Justela even more into it.

BET: Monte Supreme to win (best bet).

• ‘Sorry, he gets emotional talking about this horse’: Territory Express trainer’s remarkable ourney

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RACE 2: FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 78 (1100m)

CONFESS OUR DREAMS (1) has won half of her eight starts and was placed at two others. These 1100m races at Rosehill on good/firm tracks invariably favour horses exactly like Confess Our Dreams – ie, fast. Barrier 2 is a gift. NOT THAT EASY (7) looks to be the swooper in the race, or one of them anyway. The Jason Coyle-trained mare reeled some brilliant splits when sixth to Pisanello in a good quality midweeker on October 23. ANGEL FUND (4) got very, very close to Confess Our Dreams at the Farm.

BET: Confess Our Dreams to win, quinella 1,7.

• Ratings say Five Diamonds is a race in two

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RACE 3: HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1200m)

MONTE OUTLANDER (18) has raced in three Highways; he was very unlucky in his first one when he was $4.60 into $3.80 and as for the other two, one was a Heavy 8 (he hates that!) and he drew 15 of 16 in the third one. Horrible draw again but at least the track is firm. IVY DIVA (16) is an interesting runner in that we really don’t know what her ceiling is yet. Drawn way out but she seems to be a get back/run on horse. Ditto that last bit for ATMOSPHERIC ROCK (1) who, remember, was runner-up to Bandi’s Boy in the SERA Heat.

BET: Monte Outlander each-way.

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RACE 4: BENCHMARK 78 (2400m)

KADAVAR (5) hasn’t done more right than wrong, more good than bad, in his career reflected in his CV of three wins and two placings from 10 starts. Could be wrong, but surely he is the only horse alive that is by a VRC Derby winner, Tarzino, out of a VRC Oaks winner, Arapaho Miss. Probably explains why he is one from one at 2400m. HIAWATHA (6) sent out some very encouraging, and impressive, signs at Kembla in an amazingly strong Class 1.

BET: Kadavar to win, quinella 5,6.

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RACE 5: BENCHMARK 78 (1800m)

MODESTY (9) is so well-bred, we have to mention his pedigree and that is that his third dam is Miesque who won 10 Group 1s and then went to stud and threw Kingmambo. The Chris Waller-trained gelding was $8.50 into $7 at his Australian debut and ran accordingly. Been back to trial for a spin-around and is ready to go/win on Saturday. Stablemate CONCELLO (7) is 3 starts for zippo first-up BUT then is two from two second-up. GILDED WATER (10), The King’s horse, is a big watch.

BET: Modesty to win, Concello each-way.

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RACE 6: GROUP 3 GOLDEN GIFT (1100m)

EXTRACTOR (4) was a $300,000 yearling at the Magic Millions. Sure, the Spirit of Booms are popular but that not insignificant sum has a fair bit to do with what a great looking colt he is. Tell you what is ‘great looking’ – his trials. Barrier 5 of 9 gives Tommy Berry an option or two; both good ones. Hard not to be impressed with O’ OLE (6)’s run in the Gimcrack. Hard to say with any certainty but that might have been a strong Gimcrack. TUPAKARA (9) was huge in the Gimcrack.

BET: Extractor to win.

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RACE 7: GROUP 2 HOT DANISH STAKES (1400m)

Half the field in the Hot Danish ran in The Invitation including the winner BELCARE (1), runner-up MAGIC TIME (2) and fourth-placed OLENTIA (3). Me? Well, I liked ARCTIC GLAMOUR (5) so much in that race that day that she was my best bet. She ran seventh and it is hard to make too many excuses, except that she was run off her legs. Just hoping she can race closer from the better draw now. Outside of the Invitation mares, the one that creates most interest is ROSE BLOOM (7) who has ‘world class form’.

BET: Arctic Glamour each-way.

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RACE 8: LISTED FIVE DIAMONDS (1800m)

FREEDOM RALLY (12) ran as well as anything and better than most in the Five Diamonds Prelude. Go back one run and he finished two and three-quarters behind McHale and Big Dance winner Gringotts in the Bill Ritchie. Go back one more and he was fourth in the Tramway. PERICLES (5) was third in the Underwood but beaten a long way and fourth in the 1900m Hill beaten three and a half. My point is, and it is only my opinion, I think he is better at this sort of trip. Has a lot of class but a bad draw. YELLOW BRICK (8) had his chance in the Prelude, TERRITORY EXPRESS (11) didn’t!

BET: Freedom Rally to win, box trifecta 5,8,11,12.

• ‘Too fresh last time’: Yellow Brick to fire in Five Diamonds

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RACE 9: BENCHMARK 78 (1200m)

FIRE STAR (6) is ready and able to add a Saturday city win to his tally on the weekend. That much is obvious given he is on a hat-trick. The Peter Snowden-trained son of Deep Field has three wins and six placings (five of them, seconds) from 12 starts. Other than ‘ability’ and being incredibly well placed by his master trainer, Fire Star has a pattern conducive to winning. The same can’t be said for RINGAROSA (11) but she has a huge finish!

BET: Fire Star to win, exacta 6 to beat 11.

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RACE 10: BENCHMARK 78 (1400m)

CONGREGATION (8) has drawn 11 of 12 and given he has been nominated for a rare Rosehill midweeker on Wednesday, he could be saved for another day. Just in case he is here, my own view is he is getting close now but he owes us one. Can easily see why NEED SOME LUCK (6) is so popular. Chautauqua’s little (half) brother has Chautauqua’s (semi regular) jockey Tommy Berry on here. Berry is 4 rides, 2 wins, 2 placings on this son of Lovely Jubly.

BET: Congregation to win or if scratched Need Some Luck to win, Tommy Berry to win TAB Jockeys Challenge.

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Five Diamonds Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/nsw-racing/shayne-ocasss-racebyrace-tips-analysis-for-five-diamonds-day-at-rosehill-gardens-on-saturday/news-story/e99ded4725a276870257ea320e8c5723