Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss the big races on Day Two of The Championships at Randwick.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss big races on day two of the Championships at Randwick.

R5: ARROWFIED SPRINT (1200m)

Thomas: I’m leaning to Ghisoni in a really good race. I think she is a huge talent and is very backable now at $11. She was one of the favourites in the Coolmore Classic last start and ran well when sixth behind Peeping. Ghisoni comes back to 1200m, she can slide over from her wide barrier with Petits Filous and these two fillies will be hard to run down. Egyptian Symbol continues to run very good races but is finding it hard to win. Japonisme is all quality, handles soft going, was luckless when third in the William Reid Stakes and is well placed back against his own age at set weights.

Dufficy: An outstanding race, one of the best of the season. I’m expecting a dramatic improvement from Counterattack on the rain-affected track. He got too far back and had too much to do in the Darby Munro Stakes last start and I just feel third-up on a track and distance he performs on, he is at good odds. Petits Filous is an absolutely brilliant filly, she has won five of her six starts. There is just a little query about her at 1200m but what she has done at 1100m is superb. A soft track won’t be an issue with her, either. Japonisme has to be included back to a set weights three-year-old race and the ratings suggest he should win. Hellbent’s trial was excellent but dosen’t want it too wet. Spill The Beans is a good chance, Ghisoni is coming back in distance quickly and has an outside draw but is a very good filly, and Kinglike is not without claims.

TAB market movers: Japonisme $3.50-$3.40 ($1,000 @ $3.40, $870 @ $3.40, $300 @ $3.40, $750 @ $3.40, $2,500 @ $3.20, $1,000 @ $3.20 MULTIPLE TIMES), Counterattack $11-$8 ($600 @ $11), Petits Filous $4.60-$4.20-$3.80, Kinglike $11-$17, Stellar Collision $15-$11-$13, Ghisoni $17-$13-$11 ($2,100 @ $17).

R6: ATC AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400m)

Thomas: Happy Hannah is a very promising filly. She looked unlucky in the Vinery Stud Stakes and gives the impression she will run a strong 2400m. I’ve got her on top with the obvious danger being Jameka. She won the Victoria Oaks last spring and comes off a great effort when second to Tavago in the ATC Australian Derby last week. If she backs up from last week she is going to be tough to beat. Diamond Made produced a strong staying effort to win the Adrian Knox Stakes last week and she is over the odds at $26. Single Gaze is in a rich vein of form but has to run the 2400m.

Dufficy: A good Oaks. I’ve always been a huge fan of Sofia Rosa. I remember seeing her in the spring and she looked more like a foal than a three-year-old filly — she was six months behind the others. She has really gone on with it since, her form in New Zealand has been excellent and she was first over the line in the Oaks there only to lose on protest. Sofia Rosa is one tough filly and she can run a big race today. Happy Hannah is all quality and her lead-up run in the Vinery was a perfect Oaks trial. She is holding good condition and has been brought to a peak at just the right time. Jameka should bounce off that Derby run and she does thrive on racing. Honesta’s run in the Vinery was also pretty good, she ran through the line well. I’m all over Sofia Rosa in the Oaks.

TAB market movers: Jameka $3.50-$3.80-$3.60 ($1,000 @ $3.80, $1,250 @ $3.80, $3,000 @ $3.60, $1,000 @ $3.60 MULTIPLE TIMES), Single Gaze $13-$11, Honesta $11-$9-$11, Sofia Rosa $9.50-$8-$9.50-$8.50, Diamond Made $35-$26 ($200 e/w @ $35/$8.55, $375 e/w @ $26/$6.71, $150 e/w @ $26/$6.71).

R7: SYDNEY CUP (3200m)

Thomas: I am going with Libran. His form through the handicaps has been very impressive particularly his effort last week to win the Chairman’s Handicap under 58kg. The race developed into a sprint home and Libran was there to be beaten but he was very strong late. He drops 5kg here which is very significant. Cafe Society has run well against Libran at his last two starts and drops 3kg to the limit. If the track deteriorates then Destiny’s Kiss comes right into this race. He excels on rain-affected tracks. Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman ran the quinella in the Sydney Cup last year and they are racing in great form. The weight drops sway me to Libran.

Dufficy: I’m convinced this is Chris Waller’s race and I’m working on the track being a soft 6 or worse. Given those track conditions I’m saying this could be Grand Marshal’s day again. I feel he is going better than last year but he will need to be as he is carrying 3kg more. I love the way he has come up this preparation and James McDonald is a big-race rider. If the track is drier than I anticipate then it swings back in Libran’s favour. I know Libran handles rain-affected conditions but if it is worse than a soft 6 then Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman are the ones to beat as they are “swimmers”. Who Shot Thebarman ran a great race in The BMW and that is good form for the Cup. Gallante has been solidly supported all week and is crying out for a wet track.

TAB market movers: Who Shot Thebarman $3.50-$3.80-$4.20 ($1,000 @ $4.20, $600 @ $4.20, $500 @ $4.20), Almoonqith $13-$9-$8, Grand Marshal $4.60-$4.20-$4.60, Libran $3-$3.80, Gallante $15-$9.50-$8.

R8: COOLMORE LEGACY STAKES (1600m)

Thomas: Azkadellia was fantastic in the Doncaster Mile last week finishing third to the mighty mare Winx. Back to a weight-for-age race against her own sex, Azkadellia looks very well placed, she enjoys rain-affected conditions and gets her chance to finally win a Group 1 race. Zanbagh is the danger. She is racing in great form, she was dominant in the Emancipation Stakes and will enjoy the rain-affected conditions. Risque had a slight hoof issue last start so she deserves another chance particularly as she is back to 1600m.

Dufficy: I think Azkadellia is one of the better bets of the day. She has the Winx form, simple as that. She ran an outstanding third in a high quality Doncaster last week and will get track conditions to suit here. She should have won the Myer Classic last spring on a quick back-up so she ticks just about every box. I agree, Ray, Zanbagh is the danger. She is flying this preparation and will be in the finish again. Lady Le Fay is ready to jump out of the ground. She has had two nice runs at Rosehill and will race well here and Badawiya did enough last start to suggest she has a big run in her. Azkadellia just about stands alone in this race.

TAB market movers: Suavito $11-$12-$10 ($2,000 @ $12), Azkadellia $4.20-$3.80 ($2,000 @ $4.20, $1,000 e/w @ $4.20/$1.80, $1,000 @ $3.80), Lady Le Fay $11-$10-$15, Zanbagh $6-$7 ($1,200 e/w @ $7/$2.45), Heavens Above $21-$17, Badawiya $9.50-$11-$9.50, Asinara $31-$35-$21.

R9: QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)

Thomas: Criterion can go back-to-back in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He has needed both runs this campaign to bring him to peak fitness but there were encouraging signs with his third in the Ranvet Stakes last start. He sprinted very quickly at the top of the straight and was going to be right in the finish but hit a brick wall inside the 200m. He is ready now and will enjoy the sting out of the track. Lucia Valentina ran a blinder first-up in the Coolmore Classic and has had a month between runs, trialling nicely at the Beaumont track last week. Preferment is in career-best form but has to come back slightly in distance. Hauraki is going well but probably prefers a firmer surface.

Dufficy: I’m very confident about Lucia Valentina. I thought it was a great run first-up in the Coolmore Classic and she has had a nice early barrier trial since. Everyone will want to tell you she has no second-up form but that was when she has had two weeks between runs and is still over a sprint trip. Lucia Valentina is very good fresh, she has the right going, right tempo and right distance. Hauraki hasn’t won for a while but he is going well. Happy Clapper ran a super race against Winx in the Doncaster and if he can bounce through that run then he is right in this. The United States is the best of the rest.

TAB market movers: Criterion $7-$6-$5 ($700 @ $7, $1,000 @ $6, $500 e/w @ $6/$2.14, $500 @ $6, $1,250 e/w @ $5/$1.91, $350 @ $5), Preferment $5 unchanged ($1,000 @ $5, $750 @ $5, $500 @ $5 TWICE), Mongolian Khan $21-$35, The United States $4.20-$4.60 ($1,000 @ $4.60), It’s Somewhat $17-$21-$15 ($750 @ $21), Hauraki $7-$9.50, Rising Romance $26-$21, Awesome Rock $51-$41-$26.

R10: SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: If the track deteriorates during the day, as is likely, and gets into the heavy range then I will be having something on Two Blue each way. She is a consistent mare who was runner-up in five of her six starts during the winter-spring last year. Her first-up run in the Birthday Card Stakes was very good as she hit the front in the straight only to be ambushed late. Bounding is the class mare. She was good in The Galaxy, goes into this race third-up and handles soft conditions. Private Secretary will be storming home as usual and Sultry Feeling is in great form.

Dufficy: When I first looked at this race I thought there had to be value but the more I studied the form the more I came back to Bounding. She is a quality mare with great soft track form and her effort in The Galaxy suggests she will be very hard to beat back against her own sex today. Griante won The Galaxy and has to go up 7kg but she will be in the finish again. Cradle Me drops 5kg and is a real chance provided the track is not worse than soft. Brook Road will be running on well.

TAB market movers: Griante $6.50-$7 ($400 @ $6.50, $200 e/w @ $7/$2.50), Cradle Me $8.50-$7-$5 ($300 @ $8.50, $1,200 @ $7.50), Brook Road $11-$9.50 ($1,000 @ $11), No More Tears $35-$17.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BETS

Race 8, No. 3 AZKADELLIA

Race 9, No. 12 LUCIA VALENTINA

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No. 3 KIMBERLEY STAR

Lucia Valentina will relish the soft conditions in the Queen Elizabeth. Picture: Colleen Petch

TAB MARKET MOVERS

RANDWICK

Race 1: Prized Icon $3.20-$3.40 ($1,000 @ $3.40, $200 @ $3.20), Reinforced $3.80-$4.2-$3.80 ($200 @ $4.20 THREE TIMES), Obscura $3.50-$3.20.

Race 2: Santa Ana Lane $6-$7-$8 ($200 @ $6), Kimberley Star $12-$6 ($250 e/w @ $12/$3.75, $250 e/w @ $10/$3.25, $300 @ $10, $400 @ $8, $350 @ $8, $500 e/w @ $6/$2.25), Suspense $7.50-$9.50-$9-$8.50 ($1,500 @ $9.50, $1,400 @ $9, $500 @ $7.50, $400 @ $7.50), Tulsa $15-$13, Dixie Chick $15-$11 ($300 @ $15).

Race 3: His Majesty $4.60-$5, Electric Power $21-$15-$13, Marple Miss $15-$17-$15, Danish Twist $8-$9.50-$7, Hetty Heights $6-$5-$6.

Race 4: Twist Tops $6 unchanged ($500 e/w @ $6/$2.11, $300 e/w @ $6/$2.11), Gretna $8-$7 ($500 @ $8, $300 @ $7), Palomino $21-$17-$21-$26, Thyme For Roses $6-$7-$6.

BIG MULTI: $5,000 @ $15 on Preferment (Queen Elizabeth) / Libran (Sydney Cup)

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy