Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

PODCAST: THE Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy dissect the meetings at Canterbury and Flemington.

Hugh Bowman ( pink /black spots ) rides MR MANHATTAN to the line to win Race 4 at Warwick Farm Races . Warwick Farm .Picture Gregg Porteous

MR Manhattan, Festivity and Sabkhat look hard to beat at Canterbury while Chautauqua can confirm his rating as the nation’s best sprinter at Flemington on Saturday.

The spring carnival is coming to a close but The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy have done the homework for you at the Canterbury and Flemington meetings.

CANTERBURY PARK

R4: TAB REWARDS HCP (1100m)

Thomas: Mr Manhattan is a very promising sprinter going for a hat-trick of wins on Saturday. He ran very fast time when winning first-up at Warwick Farm then I was impressed with the way he knuckled down to his task to win at Randwick last start. He has won previously on a soft track at Canterbury. Small field suits and it is impossible to tip against him. Inside Job is a good sprinter fresh but he prefers a firmer track.

Dufficy: Mr Manhattan looks a special. Everything is set up for him here with three or four of his rivals likely to roll forward and set a genuine tempo. He is up to 1100m, which is ideal third-up, he can sit off them and should be too strong. I’m surprised he is still “black” odds. I’m thinking he is a legitimate odds-on chance, a clear top pick and I can’t find a danger.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mr Manhattan $2.10-$1.80 ($500 @ $2.10, $300 @ $1.80)

R6: LINDSAY MURPHY HCP (1550m)

Thomas: I was impressed by Lofiel’s win at Canterbury last start. She turned the tables on Binary in a very tough front-running effort. They put a huge margin on the third horse, which underlines the merit of the win. Lofiel has a great winning strike-rate, Jess Taylor’s claim brings her in with only 51kg, and she is going to take a power of running down. Wine Tales will enjoy the fast tempo, Nevagotavote is racing well and I expect Sebrina to be charging home.

LISTEN TO THE CANTERBURY PREVIEW PODCAST

Dufficy: I didn’t know how to approach Lofiel as she is up in class and I’m opposing her because of the odds. I’m keen on Sebrina. She is a mare that has had no luck this preparation, she steps up in distance, finds a wet track, Brenton Avdulla takes the ride and there are a lot of positives. She is the best value bet of the day. Nevagotavote is the danger as I feel he comes out of a stronger lead-up race than most of his opposition. Berrimilla is right in this race now there is rain around. Wine Tales has been very costly but if she put her best foot forward she would bolt in.

R7: DE BORTOLI WINES HCP (1100m)

Thomas: Festivity won her second and third race starts both at Canterbury before missing nearly 18 months racing due to injury. She resumed at this track late last month and ran a blinder to beat all but Hieroglyphics. Festivity can only be improved by that run, she should be able to lead and dictate here, I like her a lot here. Oh So Adorable is a very good bush mare who ran amazing time winning first-up at Queanbeyan. She is the danger. Big watch on Rule The River, who is resuming after a long spell but showed a lot of promise when last in work.

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Dufficy: I’ve singled two out here — Festivity and Skripchenko. I thought Festivity produced a great run first-up, she had to work very, very hard then wandered off the track as she got a bit tired. If she has taken no harm from that run she doesn’t have to improve much to win this race. She has barrier one, she should hold the fence and find the lead, she seems to hold all the aces. If they put pressure on her then Skripchenkco can charge home late. She has won at this track and distance. I say Festivity from Skripchenko, perhaps back one save on the other.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sebrina $6-$5 ($500 @ $6, $400 @ $5)

R8: VILI’S PIES HCP (1900m)

Thomas: Sabkhat is coming back a fraction in trip from his good second to Zayam at Randwick last start and looks very well placed here. He should be able to cruise over and could possibly lead if they want, Brodie Loy’s claim is handy, he goes well at Canterbury and on soft tracks. It is almost his race to lose. Quick Strike has been beaten as favourite at his last two starts and is getting closer to his win, I’m not leaving him out. Song And Laughter ran well here last start and will appreciate the rain-affected conditions.

Dufficy: I agree with you, Ray, this race sets up beautifully for Sabkhat. He gets the claim, just back that 100m, he has tactical speed, no problems in the wet, he ticks all the boxes. I’ve got him on top from Zaboss who comes out of the same race Sabkhat competed in last start. Now’s The Time and Song And Laughter have claims. A competitive race but I like Sabkhat.

R9: CELLARBRATIONS HCP (1250m)

Thomas: I was hoping to get better odds about Surfin’ Safari but I understand why he is favourite now, given his wet track form. He has needed racing and is fitter for two runs back from a spell and he wasn’t beaten all that far in Counterattack’s Brian Crowley Stakes. Sanzio is very consistent, drawn the inside gate to get a lovely run, and he also has good wet track form. Better Not Blue was good first-up, is fitter now and also handles wet tracks. Next Level can go in your multiples.

Dufficy: Better Not Blue has had a month since that encouraging first-up run, he goes well for apprentice Jess Taylor, he won his only run at this track and distance, and handles all conditions. I’m more comfortable with him than Surfin’ Safari. I’m just not totally convinced he is going as well as he can, and just because it is a wet track it is not like they can press a button and he can bounce back into form. If there is one at huge odds I’m convinced it is Cyclone.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Surfin’ Safari $7-$3.80 ($250 @ $7, $300 @ $6)

FLEMINGTON

EMIRATES STAKES: ULTIMATE GUIDE

THE EARLY OIL: EMIRATES STAKES DAY

R6: DARLEY CLASSIC (1200m)

Thomas: Chautauqua is bordering on champion status and his Manikato Stakes win was just outstanding running down Srikandi. Some of his wins have been quite phenomenal as he has this extraordinary finishing burst. He can give proven Group 1 sprinters a start and still reel them in. He did win the T.J. Smith Stakes at Randwick in the autumn on a soft track and he excels down the Flemington straight. Chautauqua is very short but I can’t tip against him. Terravista had no galloping room in the Manikato, he was excellent prior to that winning the Premiere Stakes first-up, and he handles rain-affected tracks. He did defeat Chautauqua in this race last year. Srikandi was very good first-up and is a high class mare with an unbeaten record on wet tracks.

Dufficy: I don’t think I want it too wet for Chautauqua as I feel it takes away a bit of his finishing speed. He is more vulnerable on rain-affected going. On a dry track I would say let’s just watch this champion sprinter do his thing. He is still top pick but has more work to do in the wet than the dry. The danger is Terravista. I’m convinced he has been set for this race all the way through. He is ready to roar third-up from a spell. Srikandi doesn’t get the credit she deserves. She didn’t have the easiest of runs in the Manikato Stakes and did well to run second. Delectation goes well up the straight but it is Chautauqua from Terravista and Srikandi.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Chautauqua $1.50-$1.65 ($3,000 @ $1.60, $2,000 @ $1.60, $1,000 @ $1.60 TWICE), Srikandi $8.50-$8, Lumosty $11-$10

Chautauqua is odds-on to win the Darley Classic at Flemington. Picture: Colleen Petch

R7: EMIRATES STAKES (1600m)

Thomas: Great race, Ronnie. I’m going to stick with Turn Me Loose but only just from Disposition and Bow Creek. Turn Me Loose won the Seymour Cup then backed up six days later and won the Crystal Mile, holding off Bow Creek. Turn Me Loose races up on the speed, makes his own luck and is tough to catch. Bow Creek was fantastic at his Australian debut and Flemington will suit him. Disposition found the fast lane on Derby Day but it was still a terrific win. This trio are in great form and will fight it out. I’m going to throw Magic Artist in a box trifecta.

Dufficy: I loved what I saw from Bow Creek at his first Australian start and Moonee Valley. On that effort, he doesn’t need to improve at all but you would expect he will take benefit from the run, the big Flemington straight will suit him down to the ground and I think he will win. In saying that, Turn Me Loose is an outstanding horse. He races hard, does it hard, fights hard and still sprints off it. Magic Artist was good in the Mackinnon but he is a hard horse to assess as he was coming up the fast lane on Derby Day. Magic Artist has to come back from 2000m to 1600m in a week but he looks talented. Like you I have also found Disposition in my top four although if there is a query with him it is at the end of a tough Flemington mile.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bow Creek $5-$4.80 ($1,000 @ $4.80, $500 @ $4.80 TWICE), Disposition $8.50-$8 ($4,000 @ $8.50), Amovatio $26-$19-$21, Turn Me Loose $7-$6.50-$7.50 ($800 @ $6.50), Politeness $13-$10 ($450 @ $12, $400 @ $10)

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BETS

Canterbury

Race 4, No. 2: Mr Manhattan

Race 6, No. 7: Sebrina

Flemington

Race 7, No. 4: Bow Creek

TAB BETTING PREVIEW

Flemington

Race 1: War Hero ($13-$8) has been the best supported runner today, firming from $9 earlier this morning. Flying Artie ($11-$7) is the only other runner to have had decent support.

Race 2: Divan ($4.40-$2.90) is one of the better tried runners at Flemington on Saturday. Commands around 60 per cent of the early investment on this race.

Race 3: Secret Number has commanded plenty of attention here. It’s been backed from $3.50 to $2.60.

Race 4: One of the quieter betting races of the day from Flemington with Palentino ($6-$5) the one they have zeroed in on early doors.

Race 5: Punters haven’t figured this one yet but Defiant Angel ($5.50-$4.80) is the most popular runner in terms of money taken.

Race 6: Despite being on the drift, Chautauqua is all the rage in the Darley Classic and the $1.65 is beginning to entice punters. Srikandi easily the best backed to beat it and is $8.50-8.

Race 7: Very good support on Friday for Bow Creek ($5-$4.50) including one bet of $2,500 @ $4.60. Politeness has been tried at the each-way price and is $13-$9.50 while Magic Artist ($6) and Ecuador ($18) have had some support. Disposition is $8.50 into $8 off the back of a $4,000 @ $8.50 bet.

Race 8: Lucia Valentina ($7.50-$4.80) was tried early in the week but money on Friday has been for Ballet Suite ($4.80-$4.60), including a bet of $4,000 @ $4.80.

Race 9: Even affair to round things off with Longeron having each way support earlier in the week. Malaguerra ($7-$4.20) is the current favourite.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy