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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick

Ron Dufficy is keen to back a Group 1-winning mare who offers amazing value on Day 2 of The Championships. Get Duff and Ray Thomas’s race-by-race tips and analysis for all 10 races on Saturday.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
April 11, 2025 - 12:47PM
Punters - Hold All Tickets Ep 31 - Pro punter previews Randwick

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate all the big-race race chances on Day Two of the Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

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DUFF’S BEST VALUE BET

Race 10 No.1 LADY LAGUNA

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RACE 1: Fernhill Mile (1600m)

Ron Dufficy: They are an even lot but I think TUPAKARA (1) is a nice filly who comes here with the right form lines. She only has to run the mile out to prove hard to beat. POLISH PLAYGIRL (2) is an improver who should have won with clearer running last start. She looks suited here with plenty of upside. MICHELANGELO (4) is ready to eat up 1600m and could be dangerous late. LADY PANKHURST (7) is interesting going from 1000m to a mile but looking at her pedigree it might just work.

Ray Thomas: I’ve gone with POLISH PLAYGIRL (2). She was desperately unlucky behind Prestige Ole at Flemington last start, charging home to be beaten less than a length into third. The step up to 1600m should suit her. TUPAKARA (1) tried hard at Rosehill in the Baillieu over 1400m on a heavy track. She will be in the finish here. LADY PANKHURST (7) is a filly with obvious ability and SPICY LU (5) has done well to beat older horses at both her starts in the bush.

• Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick

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RACE 2: South Pacific Classic (1400m)

Dufficy: SERGEANT MAJOR (4) toughed it out well in a fast-race when second-up last start which sets him up well for this race. He’s right in the mix. NOSTRINGSATTACHED (5) looks a really nice horse from Victoria who has put three straight wins together. He has had a recent jumpout where he beat Another Wil so just that break between runs is a slight query. MAWJOOD (9) was beaten as an odds-on favourite last start but is down in the weights and his previous win was good. He maps nicely here. I will throw in ALABAMA STATE (8) who comes out of the same race at Sergeant Major.

Thomas: I concede this is a big jump in grade for MERIDIANA (11) but I was taken by her debut win at Kensington where she showed brilliant acceleration. She’s green and is eligible for much easier races but she is a talent. NOSTRINGSATTACHED (5) is hard to knock after winning three on the bounce and Blake Shinn is staying with the colt. MAWJOOD (9) is worth another chance back against his own age. FEARLESS (2) comes out of a strong form race and should run well.

• Kiwi filly out to repay faith – and late entry fee – in Oaks

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RACE 3: Provincial-Midway Championships Final (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m quite keen on LORD OF BISCAY (2). He has always been a horse that Kris Lees has had a big opinion of and I think he has a grip on this horse now. Lord Of Biscay is nice and fresh for the 1400m which he will need to be given he’s probably looking for further but with the James McDonald factor and the good draw he has to be hard to beat. MATCHA LATTE (1) sets up nicely third-up from the good draw. He has the highest rating in the race and gets every tick. RAPT (11) probably wants further but she is flying this preparation and will be charging home late. MONEY TEAM (8) needs a lot to go right from the outside draw but he’s an improving horse who just keeps winning.

Thomas: MATCHA LATTE (1) was narrowly beaten first-up in a Newcastle qualifier but showing significant improvement and dominating his heat last start. He goes into this race third-up, drawn to get the right run, and is the one to beat. LORD OF BISCAY (2) edged out Matcha Latte last start, has been kept fresh since and I understand why you like him, Ron. MOGUL MONARCH (5) is a young, improving sprinter who comes off a good midweek win at Kensington. MONEY TEAM (8) is aiming for five wins in succession but the wide barrier is a concern.

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RACE 4: Percy Sykes Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I like INKARUNA (5). I think she has been set for this race since her third in that highly-rated Reisling Stakes. She has a good recent trial, lovely draw and will be hard to beat. Savvy Hallie has the same form line and is massive odds here. She found Nepotism too good last start at 1400m but drops back to a fillies 1200m race she is worth something at odds. TEMPTED (2) should have just about won the Golden Slipper after being held up in the straight. She has to be hard to beat again. SEQUISTA (10) went to the paddock after her debut run but she had had two trials in recent weeks and really looked the part beating WITHIN THE LAW (1) and MEMO (3).

Thomas: I’ve got to stay with TEMPTED (2). She ran a blinder in the Golden Slipper and could have run the race with a clear run. She gets back in her races but has a powerful finishing sprint and ran very fast time winning the Reisling Stakes here two starts back. MEMO (3) scored a deserved win in the Magic Night Stakes and has been kept for this race. She will also be finishing hard. INKARUNA (5) also ran well in the Reisling and looks a big improver.

• Racing Confidential: Why the Sydney Cup field makes for sobering reading

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RACE 5: Arrowfield Sprint (1200m)

Dufficy: There are plenty of short-priced favourites today and I think AUTUMN GLOW (8) is the safest of them. She’s an unbeaten star of the future. She had to work at both ends at Rosehill first-up running fast time and should continue on her winning way. ENRICHED (3) comes out of the same race and should be up to the chase again. PUBLIC ATTENTION (2) has had a freshen and a trial since racing in New Zealand and he finds a good spot on the map. BIG SWINGER (6) is an impressive type but maybe this race is a little too soon for him.

Thomas: AUTUMN GLOW (8) has won her four starts very impressively including her comeback win in the Darby Munro Stakes in fast time three weeks ago. Gifted filly and although she is staying at 1200m bad luck is her main danger. PUBLIC ATTENTION (2) did win the Eskimo Prince brilliantly when resuming but it hasn’t gone right for him since. He’s back to the Randwick 1200m here and can improve. ENRICHED (3) tried hard behind Autumn Glow last start and will run well again but it’s hard to see him turning the tables. PRIVATE LIFE (1) won a Caulfield Guineas earlier this season and has the ability to be competitive.

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RACE 6: ATC Australian Oaks (2400m)

Dufficy: Hard to go past TREASURETHE MOMENT (2), Ray. She’s another on a winning streak and she got the job done well in the Vinery Stud Stakes on a wet track. She’s back to a dry track and has to be the one to beat. VERONA ROSE (4) looks a stayer and 2400m will suit her after she ran on well behind the favourite last start. LEICA LUCY (1) has been up since November last year and has won six from seven including the NZ Oaks. She has had to do it all in one preparation but that is the New Zealand way. BELLE DETELLE (5) was good on Saturday and has had a break between runs going into that race. She’s hitting form at the right time.

Thomas: TREASURETHE MOMENT (2) should win, for all the reasons you mentioned, Ron. She is chasing her eighth successive win and won’t have an issue at the distance as she proved last spring winning the VRC Oaks over 2500m. VERONA ROSE (4) ran on well for fourth in the Vinery Stud Stakes and she should stay the classic trip out strongly. LEICA LUCY (1) had to fight hard to win the NZ Oaks but she keeps doing just that – winning. BELLE DETELLE (5) is on the quick back-up after scoring well at Randwick last week.

• Clinton Payne’s 2025 Australian Oaks tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

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RACE 7: Sydney Cup (3200m)

Dufficy: DUKE DE SESSA (1) is a Caulfield Cup winner, brings a real class angle to this race, I know it is his first try at 3200m but this stable when they get to these staying classics they are very hard to beat. I feel that form behind Dubai Honour stands out here. ZARDOZI (6) is the danger. She ran a great race in the Melbourne Cup last year and with the jar out of the track, good draw and no weight, she has to be hard to beat. CIRCLE OF FIRE (4) has got to big odds because of a barrier but he is primed for this and I can’t get out of my mind how well he won this race last year. ALALCANCE (8) goes in as she is flying. She will be hard to beat but I feel she is too short in such a competitive race.

Thomas: ALALCANCE (8) made a mess of many of her Cup rivals last week in the Chairman’s Quality when she shouldered 56.5kg and blitzed them. She drops to 52kg for the Sydney Cup, makes her own luck racing on speed and is the one to beat. ZARDOZI (6) worked to the line nicely for third in the Australian Cup but gives the impression she is looking for further now and she did run a very good fourth in the Melbourne Cup last spring. WALTHAM (20) was third in the St Leger last spring and ran an even race in the Chairman’s last week. Tough stayer and a lightweight hope. DUKE DE SESSA (1) is the class stayer of the field and brings the right form to this race.

• Jett Hatton’s 2025 Sydney Cup tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

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RACE 8: Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m)

Dufficy: At the price I am going to have a throw at the stumps with ROUSHAM PARK (2). I just feel he looks a real quality horse and that run behind Rebel’s Romance – who is a world class, multiple Group 1-winning horse – absolutely stands out to me. I might be wrong but I want to be with him to beat VIA SISTINA (12) who picks herself but is under the odds. CEOLWULF (4) is a huge chance here. I would have liked him to draw more in the middle than outside. DUBAI HONOUR (1) has to go in as he is just a terrific horse who never lets his supporters down.

Thomas: VIA SISTINA (12) has won six Group 1 races this season including the Cox Plate when she won by eight lengths and broke a track record. She has been given an identical race program this autumn leading into this race and is set for another peak performance. Champion mare and is the one they have to beat. CEOLWULF (4) has elite finishing speed when there is a genuine tempo up front and he’s likely to get that here. DUBAI HONOUR (1) has an unbeaten Australian record and won this race two years ago. BUCKAROO (7)’s effort in the Ryder was a “hidden run” where he should have finished a lot closer. He did stretch Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes last spring and could be the knockout horse.

• Clinton Payne’s 2025 Queen Elizabeth Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

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RACE 9: Queen of the Turf Stakes (1600m)

Dufficy: FANGIRL (1) was superb in the George Ryder to do what she did against the pattern and wide run to finish a close second. If she can hold that form she looks hard to beat. ATISHU (3) is having her last run before going to the sales. I don’t mind her coming back in distance because if the race works out for her she could be charging over the top of them. STEFI MAGNETICA (2) got a few favours winning the Doncaster but she won it well and maps to get a similar run here. LAZZURA (12) is going well and probably should have won last start.

Thomas: FANGIRL (1) is racing against her own sex for the first time in three years, and at weight-for-age over her favourite course and distance, so she looks placed to advantage. Outstanding mare who should get the right run from her good barrier. She’s my best of the day. STEFI MAGNETICA (2) comes off her fast-finishing Doncaster Mile win and she has to be included among the main chances again. LAZZURA (12) should have won last start and is a filly with plenty of ability. AMELIA’S JEWEL (4) is better suited in this race and SOUNDS OF HEAVEN (10) is way over the odds.

• Clinton Payne’s 2025 Queen Of The Turf Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

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RACE 10: Sapphire Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m keen on LADY LAGUNA (1) at the right price. She finds a suitable race at 1200m with great second-up form, is beautifully placed at the weights with her rating, and should be closer to the favourite in the market. COMMEMORATIVE (5) is the favourite and very likeable. She’s drawn wide but is a big mare and I don’t mind her out there. OLENTIA (3) drops back to 1200m but her record at the distance is good. AUSTMARR (8) got away with it the other day taking control of the race and although this is tougher she fits in somewhere.

Thomas: COMMEMORATIVE (5) was a certainty beaten last start when held up inside runner. She’s drawn out wide here but that is to her advantage given she is a physically imposing mare who needs galloping room. OLENTIA (3) has had a month between runs to have her fresh enough to come back to 1200m. LADY LAGUNA (1) is a class mare and AUSTMARR (8) goes in.

• Turf Talk: The horse to send everyone home a winner at Randwick

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/nsw-racing/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-racebyrace-tips-analysis-for-day-2-of-the-championships-at-royal-randwick/news-story/04ee08f0e5233b2ae7228e9b599f2f96