Randwick tips: Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy analyse the big Epsom meeting at Randwick on Saturday.

RANDWICK RACES

THE Epsom Handicap is usually a race where mares struggle but favourite Winx can lead home an “all-girls” trifecta in the $1 million race at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

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Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy has selected the mares to run 1-2-3 with Winx to beat Kirramosa and Lucia Valentina. The only previous occasion mares have filled all three placings was in 2011 when Secret Admirer defeated Pinker Pinker and Red Tracer.

Dufficy and The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas analyse all nine races on Sydney’s biggest spring carnival raceday.

R1: BREEDERS PLATE (1000m)

Thomas: The market suggests this is a race in two between Capitalist and Cohesion. I think they will fight out the finish but I’m leaning to Cohesion. I loved the way he attacked the line in his Randwick trial win.

Dufficy: I’m with the favourite here, Capitalist. He did everything right in his trial, he eased back from the wide draw and came with a big finish. His closing 200m sectionals were very good. Considering it was the last trial of the day and he had the worst going, I thought his win was impossible to ignore. Don’t underestimate his stablemate, Detective, at double figure odds. He raced greenly behind Cohesion and will race in winkers on Saturday.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Capitalist $1.90-$1.70 ($2200 @ $1.90, $3000 @ $1.85)

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R2: GIMCRACK STAKES (1000m)

Thomas: Calliope looked an absolute natural winning her trial. She was a clear standout among the fillies and is the one to beat. Jeanneau, at odds here, ran a nice trial behind Twist Tops. Jeanneau is from the Paul Perry stable, which invariably produces a good early season juvenile, and this filly could be it but I can’t tip against Calliope, she looks the winner.

Dufficy: I agree, Ray. Calliope did everything right in her trial, ran good time and should prove very hard to beat. I have her on top particularly now her main danger Twist Tops is drawn right off the track.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Twist Tops $8-$5 ($500 @ $7.50, $1500 @ $6, $1,000 @ $5, $900 @ $4.80)

R3: DULCIFY QUALITY (1600m)

Thomas: I’m giving Wudang Mountain another chance. I was disappointed in him at Newcastle but I am certain he is a better horse than what he showed in the Spring Stakes. A tongue tie goes on here and I am banking on this colt bouncing back to winning form. A Chris Waller quinella here with the promising filly Laucala the danger.

Dufficy: I have to give Wudang Mountain another chances as well. He left me a little flat after Newcastle but he was chasing the leader Clash Of Clans all the way and could not get into any sort of rhythm. I would prefer him ridden back but with little speed in this race, I will leave it to Hugh Bowman to come up with the right tactics. Laucala is a very good filly but still six months away. A good long shot is Schopenhauer.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Laucala $6-$3.80 ($300 @ $6, $511 @ $5, $800 @ $4.20), Ambience $11-$4.60 ($300 @ $11, $350 @ $9.50, $650 @ $7.50, $2000 @ $5)

R4: ROMAN CONSUL STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: Exosphere is very short but it is impossible I can’t tip against him. I know he is coming back in trip but he has had a month between runs and Godolphin’s John O’Shea will ensure the freshness is back in the colt’s legs. Sooboog is on the quick back-up after being older horses in fast time at Rosehill midweek and he is under-rated colt but Exosphere only need to avoid bad luck to win.

Dufficy: Exosphere has had a nice enough break between runs and he has looked a real star in his two wins this spring. The Golden Rose form is very strong and Exosphere was dominant. Barring traffic problems, he should just get the money. I am keeping an eye on Takedown. He can’t beat Exosphere here but he could be a player in Melbourne during the spring.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Exosphere $1.60-$1.55 ($1000 @ $1.60, $2500 @ $1.55, $2,000 @ $1.50, $1,000 @ $1.50)

R5: PREMIERE STAKES (1200m)

PREMIERE: SPRINT SHAPES AS SIZZLER

Thomas: Terravista has had a belated start to his spring campaign but he is ready to go on Saturday, Ronnie. He has looked his old self in three trials, he loves Randwick and goes well fresh. Rebel Dane has returned in great order and there is a big top around for Generalife.

Dufficy: I think Terravista is the best bet of the day. He has been kept up to the mark with three trials and he has been held back for a dry track. He will slide across from that wide barrier and I can’t see anything beating him. I don’t think there are dangers. Rebel Dane was good first-up but back to a dry track is a little bit of a question mark, That’s A Good Idea is trialling well but this is Terravista’s race.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Terravista $2.30-$2.10 ($1,500 @ $2.10, $900 @ $2.10, $500 @ $2.10 TWICE), Rebel Dane $4.60-$4.20

R6: CRAVEN PLATE (2000m)

Thomas: Complacent is my bet of the day. His weight-for-age form this spring has been terrific. He defeated Kermadec in the Chelmsford Stakes and then was very game when third to Preferment in the Hill Stakes. Complacent has had a very solid grounding going fourth up into the Craven Plate and this is an easier race than the Hill Stakes. Hauraki is the big improver on a dry track.

Dufficy: Complacent looks so well placed here because he should get a cosy lead. He was softened up early in the Hill Stakes and had the hide to fight on strongly for third. It showed there was no fluke in his Chelmsford win. Hauraki is some threat now he is back on top of the ground. Keep an eye on Grand Marshal as he is coming along nicely for the Cups.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Complacent $2.30-$2.10 ($1,500 @ $2.30), Moriarty $9.50-$8-$9.50 ($1,000 @ $9.50), Ruling Dynasty $9-$7 ($900 @ $8)

R7: EPSOM HANDICAP (1600m)

EPSOM: HAWKES HAPPY WITH DUO

Thomas: Entirely Platinum might be able to control the tempo without being put under too much pressure early in the Epsom. If that is the case, he is going to be very hard to run down. His two Melbourne runs at Group 1 weight-for-age level have been outstanding this spring, he is very fit and I prefer to be backing him at the odds than the favourite Winx. I have no knock on Winx, she was so good in the Theo Mark Stakes last start. Silverball is following the He’s Your Man preparation and it would not surprise me if he won. Sweynesse is fit now and significantly is back on a dry track which he prefers.

Dufficy: Often when it looks like a race has a lack of speed it generates pace and I think that might be the case here. I know mares have a poor record in the Epsom but I am all over Winx from Kirramosa and Lucia Valentina. Winx has such a brilliant sprint on her and she can adapt to any conditions. Kirramosa comes off a very good run in the George Main Stakes and the Epsom weights are more like a weight-for-age race on Saturday. The dry track suits her, too. Lucia Valentina’s two runs have been eye-catching and she usually excels third-up from a spell. I give Sweynesse a big chance as he has been set for this race all along. He is big odds.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Silverball $11-$9.50, Entirely Platinum $11-$9.50 ($1,000 @ $11, $400 e/w @ $11/$3.22), Teronado $101-$51-$71

R8: FLIGHT STAKES (1600m)

FLIGHT: HONESTA READY TO SOAR

Thomas: I feel class will prevail here with Speak Fondly. I appreciate there is a question mark about her at 1600m but she has class on her side. She was so dominant in the Silver Shadow Stakes and Furious Stakes and was very brave chasing home Exosphere in the Golden Rose. I have her clearly on top from Pearls and Ocean Tempest.

Dufficy: I was on Sempre Libera first-up and I’m happy to stay with her. She was in the wrong part of the track last start and held up at a vital stage. She will eat up the mile and is the value bet of the day. Speak Fondly only has to run out the 1600m to be very hard to beat as she has the best form from the Golden Rose but she has to run the mile and is a very short price — they are the negatives with the favourites. Pearls and Honesta were both very good last start.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Speak Fondly $2.60 unchanged ($1,500 @ $2.60, $900 @ $2.60), Honesta $8-$7-$8 ($2,000 e/w @ $8/$2.40), Pearls $6 unchanged ($1,550 @ $6)

R9: THE METROPOLITAN (2400m)

METROP: CUP WINNER SLIPS UNDER RADAR

Thomas: I have Godolphin potentially winning five races with a Group 1 to cap it off with Magic Hurricane. He has been racing well all spring and his run in the Hill Stakes when just beaten by Preferment was a great trial for this race. Maurus is an each-way chance, Orbec is very consistent and Almoonqith is a top four chance.

Dufficy: I love the draw for Magic Hurricane. He just box seats in a questional speed race and gets all the favours. Some say he was outstayed by Preferment last start but I feel he loomed up to win but was a run short. His preparation has been perfectly timed for this race. I would have put Beaten Up on top but he hasn’t won for such a long time. He is also drawn to get the right run. Chance To Dance and Havana Cooler are good chances, too.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Beaten Up $8-$7, Bonfire $15-$13, Magic Hurricane $4-$3.80 ($2,000 @ $3.80), Orbec $15-$13, Junoob $15-$11

FLEMINGTON (Sunday)

R7: TURNBULL STAKES (2000m)

Thomas: I’m with Hartnell from Royal Descent in the Turnbull. Hartnell was good in the Chelmsford first-up and went extra well in a barrier trial since. Hartnell is an outstanding galloper and the one to beat. Royal Descent is so well weighted and Rising Romance is peaking after two runs from a spell.

Dufficy: I had Hartnell on top until I heard John O’Shea say the horse will be given a negative ride. I was hoping they went forward early because this race is likely to be slowly run. Royal Descent’s rider Glen Boss will sum up the situation and give the mare the right run. She is racing in great form and is thrown into this race with 53.5kg. Hartnell will still run well while Chris Waller’s stayers Who Shot Thebarman and Preferment are absolutely flying.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BETS

Race 5, No. 1: TERRAVISTA

Race 6, No. 1: COMPLACENT

BEST VALUE

Race 8, No. 7: SEMPRE LIBERA

MARKET MOVERS FOR FLEMINGTON

Race 1: Manuel has been the best tried runner in this and is $3.80 to $2.20.

Race 3: All Chautauqua here. Despite the $1.40 punters are backing it and putting in Multis too. BETS: Chautauqua $5,000 @ $1.40.

Race 4: In what is a fairly quiet betting race Tivaci is $3.50 to $3.30. BETS: Tivaci $1,599 @ $3.50.

Race 5: When the market first opened Sacred Eye was smashed. TAB put up $7 and has now bottomed out at $3.80. Support on Friday came for Don’t Doubt Mama ($6.50-$5). BETS: Sacred Eye $2,000 @ $4.

Race 6: Foundry was specked early ($3.80-$2.80) but little else has happened since.

Race 7 (Turnbull Stakes): The best move at this early stage is for Amralah ($11-$6). Others that have had support include Happy Trails ($15-$12) and Alpine Eagle ($6-$5.50). There has been some each-way money for Who Shot Thebarman, Preferment and Rising Romance.

Race 9: Chivalry was specked earlier in the week and is $15 into $9.50.

Originally published as Randwick tips: Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy