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Melbourne Cup runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

Racenet’s Clinton Payne presents his tips and form assessment for each of the runners in Tuesday’s $8.56m Melbourne Cup at Flemington.

Clinton Payne
10 min read
November 4, 2024 - 7:02PM
Tips to find The 2024 Melbourne Cup Winner!

The Melbourne Cup is ‘the race that stops a nation’ and here is our form assessment of each of the runners.

There was a field of 24 runners declared for the 3200m contest.

FIELDS AND FORM FOR MELBOURNE CUP DAY AT FLEMINGTON

Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up.

1 – VAUBAN

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: William Buick

Weight: 55.5kg

Barrier: 11

Comment: Started favourite in the race last year, running below expectations when finishing midfield. Trainer is a legend in the UK, he will have learned plenty from the experience and the horse’s recent form is first rate, winning the Lonsdale Cup and placing in the Irish St Leger, the race which produced 2020 winner Twilight Payment.

Verdict: Accomplished international stayer that can redeem himself this year.

2 – BUCKAROO 

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Weight: 54.5kg

Barrier: 21

Comment: He’s gone to a whole new level since being gelded. Wins in the Chelmsford and Underwood Stakes before second placings behind Cox Plate Queen Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes and then produced the best last 600m, 400m and 200m splits in the Caulfield Cup, which is a positive sign stepping up to 3200m for the first time. Australia’s premier trainer Chris Waller won his only Melbourne Cup in 2021 with Verry Elleegant so knows what it takes.

Verdict: Has the best Aussie form in the race by far and with luck in running he can win.

3 – CIRCLE OF FIRE 

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Weight: 54.5kg

Barrier: 24

Comment: Won the Sydney Cup earlier this year to stamp him as a Melbourne Cup candidate but his three runs this preparation have all been well below what is required to be given serious consideration. Most recently he finished midfield in the Caulfield Cup and 10 of his rivals closed off better than him. His biggest plus is he’s trained by 2022 Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Ciaron Maher and ridden by Mark Zahra, who’s won the race the past two years.

Verdict: His form this prep is below what’s needed to figure and the barrier draw makes it even harder.

4 – WARP SPEED 

Trainer: Noburi Takagi

Jockey: Akiri Sugawara

Weight: 54.5kg

Barrier: 3

Comment: Japanese raider that gets the award for the best dressed runner in training. Made his Aussie debut in the Caulfield Cup and finished a disappointing 13th, passing a few stragglers that didn’t run the trip in the straight, running the ninth best last 600m of the race. That was his first run since April so open to improvement and a firmer track will be more to his liking.

Verdict: Could be the big improver back on a firm track.

5 – KOVALICA 

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Damian Lane

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 17

Comment: Enigmatic galloper that won the 2023 Queensland Derby over 2400m and since then he’s only once been tried beyond 2000m, running on for fifth in the Q22 over 2200m in Brisbane back in June. The only runner this year backing up from the Cox Plate where he was well beaten, and his closing sectionals were moderate.

Verdict: He’s been running on in his races but 3200m is still a big question mark. Place best.

6 – SHARP ‘N’ SMART 

Trainer: Graeme Rogerson & Debbie Rogerson

Jockey: Michael Dee

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 15

Comment: Kiwi stayer that was a dual Group 1 winner at three, successful in the Spring Champion Stakes and Herbie Dyke Stakes, both over 2000m and the NZ Derby over 2400m but he hasn’t won since in 11 starts. Has shown glimpses of his best form this prep, most recently working home OK for third in the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. His co-trainer Graeme Rogerson won the Melbourne Cup in 2007 with Efficient.

Verdict: Not won for a long time but he has claims to finish top 10.

7 – JUST FINE 

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 13

Comment: Burst on to the local scene last year winning his first three starts, including the Group 1 Metropolitan (2400m). Didn’t fire in the autumn but has come back in better form this time, including a close up effort behind Buckaroo over 1600m before booking his place here with a win in the Bart Cummings (2520m) two starts back. No excuses offered for ordinary performance in the Moonee Valley Cup last time. Gai Waterhouse won the Melbourne Cup in 2013 with Fiorente.

Verdict: Has each-way claims if he brings his A-game.

8 – LAND LEGEND 

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Zac Purton

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 18

Comment: In his first Australian start he led throughout to win the St Leger (2600m) in Sydney during the spring last year, beating two horses that both won Melbourne Cup lead-up races. Returned to action this spring, winning the Group 1 Metropolitan (2400m) before a third placing last time in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) when over racing for much of the trip. His racing manners are key to him running the trip.

Verdict: If he settles, he can be the surprise packet in the race.

9 – ABSURDE 

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Weight: 52.5kg

Barrier: 7

Comment: Having his second go after finishing seventh in the race last year. His wily Irish trainer is on the record as saying he’s much happier with the horse this year indicating Absurde is “more mature in his mind and he just seems to have grown up”. Won the Chester Stakes (2916m) last start and has the services of the most successful Melbourne Cup-winning jockey currently riding in Kerrin McEvoy.

Verdict: Trained by a wily master of his craft and he has genuine claims.

10 – ATHABASCAN (SCRATCHED)

11 – KNIGHT’S CHOICE 

Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Weight: 51.5kg

Barrier: 6

Comment: Connections rejected an offer of $2.3m for this bloke in the winter last year and he’s only won one race since. Raced consistently in Brisbane during the winter, placing in three of five runs up to 2400m but in four runs since resuming this spring he hasn’t been a factor, his most recent effort in the Bendigo Cup his best, beaten 5¼ lengths. His co-trainer Sheila Laxon was the first woman trainer to win the Melbourne Cup with Ethereal in 2001.

Verdict: Not up to the class to be troubling the placegetters.

12 – OKITA SOUSHI 

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 10

Comment: Came to Australia last year for the Cups and was unplaced in both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Had the best part of 12 months off, didn’t fire in his first two runs this prep then sent to the front in the Herbert Power (2400m) before being run down late. In his latest start he made a long searching run and kept running to book his place here by winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m).

Verdict: Coming good at the right time and will run the trip. Each-way claims.

13 – ONESMOOTHOPERATOR 

Trainer: Brian Ellison

Jockey: Craig Williams

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 12

Comment: UK raider that created an immediate impression when striding to a dominant win in the Geelong Cup in his first Australian start. All four of his UK wins have come on synthetic tracks but he wasn’t disgraced in the Ebor three starts ago and it is regarded as one of Europe’s best Melbourne Cup guides. He did chase home last year’s winner Without A Fight in a race at York back in 2022.

Verdict: Strong win in the Geelong Cup makes him one of the better chances.

14 – ZARDOZI 

Trainer: James Cummings

Jockey: Andrea Atzeni

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 4

Comment: She’s attempting to emulate the great Light Fingers, the last mare to have won the VRC Oaks (2500m) at three. Light Fingers was trained by the late, great Bart Cummings and Zardozi is prepared by his grandson James, one for the omen punters. She races best at Flemington and has finished second and fourth respectively in her last two starts over 2400m in the Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup. Was given the Bart Cummings Melbourne Cup warm up on Saturday in the Empire Rose and she was good.

Verdict: Are the stars aligning for this famous family to add another chapter of Melbourne Cup history?

15 – SEA KING 

Trainer: Harry Eustace

Jockey: Hollie Doyle

Weight: 50.5kg

Barrier: 1

Comment: UK raider that forced his way into the field with a commanding 3¾-length win in the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday. He is trained by Harry Eustace, the brother of 2022 Melbourne Cup co-winning trainer David. Like the Geelong Cup winner Onesmoothoperator, Sea King ran in the Ebor, finishing ahead of his rival which meets Sea King half-a-kilo better this time.

Verdict: His form tied in with Onesmoothoperator so he must be respected.

16 – VALIANT KING 

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Weight: 50.5kg

Barrier: 22

Comment: On paper his form looks ordinary since finishing sixth in his first Australian start in last year’s Caulfield Cup. Two starts back he passed a couple of stragglers late when beaten almost seven lengths by Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) then last time out in the Caulfield Cup, although never a winning chance, he did produce the fourth best last 200m split of the race after covering more ground than all but one runner.

Verdict: Should run the trip better than most so could add some value into exotics.

17 – FANCY MAN 

Trainer: Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald

Jockey: Ron Stewart

Weight: 50kg

Barrier: 19

Comment: He’s going as well as he’s gone in Australia this preparation. He ran well first-up in the Naturalism then went even better in the Herbert Power (2400m) when second before performing above expectations, although never a winning chance, finishing sixth in the Caulfield Cup where he ran the fourth best last 600m split in the race.

Verdict: He’s been racing well this preparation and isn’t without place claims.

18 – INTERPRETATION 

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Teo Nugent

Weight: 50kg

Barrier: 14

Comment: Twelve months ago, he won the Bendigo Cup (2400m) before running the trip right out when sixth in the Melbourne Cup. After that he only beat home six of 46 runners in his next four starts before the switch was flicked on and he started to find some form again, making ground for sixth in the Bart Cummings (2520m) and then running on strongly for second in the Geelong Cup (2400m).

Verdict: His last two runs have been much better and was good last year. Each-way chance.

19 – MANZOICE 

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Declan Bates

Weight: 50kg

Barrier: 8

Comment: He won the Victoria Derby two years ago but hasn’t produced anything like that form since. Was gelded leading into this preparation and the early signs were good with two solid performances but then found most of the field too good for him in the Bart Cummings (2520m) and the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). Drops 5kg and he won his Derby like a horse that would run two miles.

Verdict: Hasn’t been finding the line like a horse wanting to go another 700m.

20 – MOSTLY CLOUDY 

Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Jockey: Karis Teetan

Weight: 50kg

Barrier: 16

Comment: Imported stayer that made his Aussie debut early last year and while he has only won on one occasion, he’s been a consistent stayer for the best part. In 17 Aussie starts, he won over 2500m at Flemington last year, placing another eight times over distances between 2000 and 3200m. Finished second in the Brisbane Cup over 3200m back in June and wasn’t disgraced in the Sydney Cup (3200m) back in April.

Verdict: He will run the trip better than most and could run into the placings.

21 – POSITIVITY 

Trainer: Andrew Foresman

Jockey: Winona Costin

Weight: 50kg

Barrier: 20

Comment: As a three-year-old her biggest win came in the SA Fillies’ Classic over 2500m and she also finished second in the NZ Oaks (2400m). This season she’s been consistent for the best part of this prep as a four-year-old mare, winning the Group 3 Naturalism (2000m) and beaten 2-1/4 lengths in the Bart Cummings (2520m) but then she was disappointing last time in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m).

Verdict: Was going well prior to the last run. Top 10 chance.

22 – SAINT GEORGE 

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Tyler Schiller

Weight: 50kg

Barrier: 9

Comment: Imported stayer that came touted as a Melbourne Cup contender. His form probably hasn’t been as strong as expected but he hasn’t raced with the best of luck. Should have won first-up over 1700m then not disgraced in the Naturalism (2000m) before disappointing in the Bart Cummings (2520m) but was doing his best work late in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m), running the best last 200m of the race.

Verdict: He’s the best $21 or better chance in the race.

23 – THE MAP 

Trainer: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray

Jockey: Rachel King

Weight: 50kg

Barrier: 23

Comment: The pride of South Australia and she booked her place in the race with victory in the Andrew Ramsden (2800m) back in May. She has an excellent record of two wins from three starts at Flemington while she also finished second in the Adelaide Cup (3200m) back in March. She’s been working home OK in recent starts in the Herbert Power (2400m) and Geelong Cup (2400m).

Verdict: She will stay but doubt she has the class to bother the placegetters.

24 – TRUST IN YOU 

Trainer: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley

Jockey: Mark Du Plessis

Weight: 50kg

Barrier: 5

Comment: Kiwi stayer that finished out of the placings in his only 3200m start in this year’s Auckland Cup back in March. His biggest win came in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup over 2400m back on New Year’s Day at Pukekohe. This prep he was OK when fourth in The Metropolitan (2400m) behind the likes of Land Legend and Zardozi then had his chance but came up short in the St Leger (2600m).

Verdict: Doesn’t have the class to finish at the pointy end.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

TIPS

1st – VAUBAN (No. 1)

2nd – BUCKAROO (No. 2)

3rd – ABSURDE (No. 9)

4th – ZARDOZI (No. 14)

ROUGHIE – SAINT GEORGE (No. 22)

Originally published as Melbourne Cup runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

Read related topics:Melbourne

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/nsw-racing/melbourne-cup-runnerbyrunner-form-assessments-and-selections/news-story/6430e2592e2c35bf4b7a636634e9b940