Inside Mail: All the big bets, market movers, work whispers, trial pointers and quaddies for day one of The Championships at Randwick

YANKEE Rose and Telperion have come through outstanding Golden Slipper runs and look set to dominate the Group 1 ATC Sires Produce Stakes at Randwick on Saturday.

YANKEE Rose and Telperion have come through outstanding Golden Slipper runs and look set to dominate the Group 1 $1 million ATC Sires Produce Stakes at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Form guru Gary Crispe of Racing and Sports said Slipper form invariably stands up into the Sires.

“The Golden Slipper has served up 14 of the last 20 winners of the Sires,’’ Crispe said. “Pierro, Sebring, Dance Hero and Merlene won both races, while eight of the other 10 Sires winners who came through the Golden Slipper were placed at Rosehill prior to their Randwick triumph.’’

Crispe said this profile points to the David Vandyke-trained Yankee Rose proving the one to beat in the Sires and that is supported by Timeform’s ratings assessment of the race.

“Yankee Rose’s effort to storm home for second behind Capitalist in the Golden Slipper was hugely promising and she returned a 117 Timeform rating,’’ Crispe said.

“With that run under her belt it would seem that she is now better prepared for her Sires target and improvement could be expected on her Golden Slipper performance.

“The key danger to her is Telperion who closed into fourth in the Golden Slipper and looks well suited by the step up to 1400m.

“But he’s got some work to do if he is to turn the tables on Yankee Rose, not only from their Rosehill meeting last time but from their clash back in October when Yankee Rose held an almost identical margin to Telperion.’’

BEST BARRIERS

The best winning barriers at Royal Randwick for the last three years.

(In order of most wins)

1100m: 2,5,8,4

1200m: 4,5,6,7

1400m: 2,6,1,5

1600m: 6,8,1,5

2000m: 6,4,2,7

2400m: 5,4,1,9

2600m: 2,1,8,6

TAB BIG BETS & MARKET MOVERS

Race 1: TAB Fixed Odds reports Astern has eased from $1.90-$2.50, El Divino has firmed from $3.80-$2.60 after bets of $350 at $3.80, $300 at $3.50, $600 at $3.20.

Race 2: Odyssey Moon $8-$4.40 after bets of $700 at $8, $350 at $7, Data Point $6-$3.80 after bets of $400 at $6, $500 at $5, $600 at $4.60, $300 at $4.20.

Race 3: Libran $2.30-$2.10 after a $4,000 wager at $2.30.

Race 4: Clearly Innocent $1.90-$2.30 despite a $10,000 bet at $2.30, Lofty’s Menu $6-$4.60, All Summer Long $11-$9.50 with a $2,000 wager at $9.50.

Race 5: Perignon $7-$8.50, Egyptian Symbol $7-$4.00 with bets of $500 at $7, $1,200 at $6, $2,500 at $4.80, $1,750 at $4.40, $2,460 at $4.20, Denmagic $10-$8.

Race 6: Telperion $3.80 unchanged, Seaburge $8 unchanged despite bets of $1,000 e/w at $8/$2.47, $400 at $8, Yankee Rose $4.60-$3.70 with bets of $1,000 at $4.20, $1,400 at $3.80, $1,000 at $3.70, $800 at $3.70.

Yankee Rose has been well backed to win the Sires. Picture: Jenny Evans

Race 7: Tarzino $2-$1.90 after bets of $2,280 at $2, $2,000 at $2, $4,000 at $1.90, $2,000 at $1.90, Tally $6-$7-$6.50, Jameka $7-$6.50.

Race 8: Chautauqua $3.40 unchanged after a $500 bet at $3.40, Exosphere firm at $2.70 after bets of $8,400 at $2.70, $2,000 at $2.70 (twice), English $11-$9.

Race 9: Kermadec $6.50-$7.50, Winx $1.85-$1.80 after bets of $10,000 at $1.85, $4,000 at $1.80, Turn Me Loose $26 unchanged after a $1,000 bet at $26, Volkstok’n’barrell $26-$23, Azkadellia $13-$10 after a wager of $400 e/w at $13/$3.28, He Or She $26-$23.

Race 10: Sacred Eye $6-$5, Bulla Baby $9.50-$7.50.

EARLY QUADDIE

Race 3: 1

Race 4: 1,3,4,8

Race 5: 1,6,10,13

Race 6: 1,5,8

Suggested bet: $20

Bet percentage: 41.66%

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1,4

Race 8: 1,14

Race 9: 3,5,10,11

Race 10: 1,2,5,10

Suggested bet: $20

Bet percentage: 31.25%

PRICE CHECK

El Divino (race one) is a half-brother to the mighty mare and Doncaster Mile favourite Winx. El Divino made his debut at Gosford late last month and could not have been more impressive as he romped home by more than four lengths. He should take improvement from that race but jumps straight to Group 3 grade here. There has been good, consistent support for the colt who has firmed from $3.80 to $2.60 and is challenging Astern for favouritism. El Divino is under the odds now.

TRIAL POINTERS

Tempt Me Not (race five) was beaten a neck in the Light Fingers Stakes first-up but was less impressive next time in the Fireball also at Randwick. The Gooree-bred filly looked very sharp winning her 807m heat at Warwick Farm on March 22 with regular rider Glyn Schofield in the saddle. She has an awkward alley to contend with but otherwise has sound credentials in an open and competitive PJ Bell.

Exosphere (race eight) is back home in Sydney after finishing fourth in the Lightning behind TJ Smith rivals Chautauqua and Terravista. This handsome and imposing son of Lonhro was at his breathtaking best winning a 1045m Randwick trial by 2.3-lens. Short enough at the current quote given the line-up, but he is an X-Factor racehorse par excellence.

Will the return to Randwick bring out the best in Exosphere? Picture: Simon Bullard

WORK WHISPERS

Omei Sword (race six) is a superbly bred filly by High Chaparral out of the Group 1 winner Irish Lights trained by Chris Waller. She won on debut at Rosehill before her closing second in the Magic Night Stakes. She was in great shape on Tuesday working with stablemate Hembrook over 800m in 53.1s with a 12.03s last 200m. She should relish the 1400m.

Turn Me Loose (race nine) faces an almost insurmountable task up against the champion mare Winx in the Doncaster but the Murray Baker trained Kiwi is a triple Group 1 winner, two of them a mile. He rounded his Doncaster lead-up work with a lovely gallop at Warwick Farm on Thursday covering the 1000m in 1:07.1s, quickening up the last bit with a 24.74s last 400m. Good odds for a horse of his quality and C.V.

THE BEST BET

Clearly Innocent (race six) won his Scone qualifier in course record time then was tuned up for the Couintry Championships Final with another brilliant win at Scone last week. Promising sprinter with five wins from seven starts. Slight concern about a hoof problem and he will wear bar plates in front today. Such a talent, if he gets galloping room from the turn, he can still win this race as he has a devastating burst of acceleration.

EACH WAY

Bulla Baby (race 10) is still a maiden after five starts but she is bred to stay — her dam Bulla Borghese won the Victoria Oaks — and is finally getting out to a middle distance today. She comes off a solid effort over 1600m at Gosford last start when she closed late to be just beaten by Mauzel. In a very open race she represents good value around $8.

THE JUDGMENT

ROYAL RANDWICK

RACE 7: ATC AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m)

Mick Price (trainer) Tarzino: “The horse is spot on and has had a good preparation for the Derby. He goes from 2000m to 2400m which seems a beautiful distance for him, he has a great set of lungs. I was happy with his Rosehill Guineas win and that race has brought him on for the Derby.’’

Steve McKee (trainer) What’s The Story: “I think What’s The Story will be competitive in the Derby as he is a very clean-winded horse and staying is his go. Once we got him out over a trip he has showed he can stay well. He just missed in the New Zealand Derby (second to Rangipo). This is a good field headed by Tarzino but we are not going to be scared off by one horse. He is drawn well enough and Blake Shinn is in white-hot form so we are hopeful he can run well.’’

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “Tarzino easily accounted for the opposition in the Rosehill Guineas and meets six of them again here. Impossible to see them turning the tables on him as he’ll have no trouble with the step to 2400m. Settled much closer last start from an inside alley and with a midfield draw today settles wherever he wants. Happy with Vanbrugh as the danger as he looks to be the one with upside out of Rosehill and loves Randwick. The filly Jameka is as honest as the day is long and wouldn’t surprise to see D Oliver try and control from front.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Tarzino is the obvious favourite and our top pick but at the value, suggest backing Vanbrugh. Our market has them much closer with around $10 seeming very attractive for the Waller/Bowman combination.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “Tarzino was a stunning winner of the Rosehill Guineas, and the extra distance suits him even better. Four straight wins tells you Tally is tough and will push the favourite all the way.’’

Verdict: TARZINO

Derby favourite Tarzino enjoys a splash at Randwick. Picture: Adam Taylor

RACE 8: T.J. SMITH STAKES (1200m)

John O’Shea (trainer) Exosphere: “He’s fit and well and there’s no question that he’s come on a lot since returning from Melbourne. He’s bright in himself, his coat has improved, we’re all very pleased with him. We all know what a turn of foot he has and he showed in his Roman Consul win at Randwick last spring that he is right at home there. He’s drawn barrier four which shouldn’t be a problem. I think you’ll find he’ll settle a bit closer to the pace than last time.”

Matthew Dale (trainer) Fell Swoop: “This is probably the strongest sprint race in Australia, it is Fell Swoop’s first crack at weight-for-age so it is a big task. But he should have won the Oakleigh Plate first-up and the form out of that race has held up. I thought he might have had the dash out of his legs for 1100m again second-up but he still ran a very good race in The Galaxy. He goes into this race third-up at 1200m so the timing is right to have a look at him. He is such a competitive horse we are happy to be there.’’

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “This looks a great race but with limited winning hopes. Exosphere gets away from what appears to be his nemesis, the Flemington straight, has five weeks off and has trialled brilliantly. Wet track no concern either. Looks the one to beat. Great value in exotics with Shiraz, who is flying and loves wet tracks while Our Boy Malachi looks to control lead here and will give you a sight for a long way.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “I do have giant respect for Exosphere as a horse and were well and truly on his bandwagon early on. But can’t work out how Chautauqua isn’t favourite with what we see as a better lead in and ticking a few more boxes with the track and draw.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “Barrier 14 is never a help, but the way English can reel off sizzling sectionals she only has to be within striking distance to give this a real fright at fantastic odds.’’

Verdict: EXOSPHERE

RACE 9: DONCASTER MILE (1600m)

Chris Waller (trainer) Winx, Kermadec, Good Project: “Winx is going very well. Her trackwork over the last two weeks since racing has been faultless, possibly even the best of her work she’s even shown according to her track riders this week. Kermadec’s fitness levels have steadily improved, he will be fitter again and he does get a small turnaround in weight. Good Project is a rough lightweight chance.’’

David Hayes (trainer) He Or She: “He Or She is flying under the radar. He won the Blamey Stakes from Group 1 horses The United States and Stratum Star so there is very good form around him. He goes get in very well at the weights with 50kg and he is going into the Doncaster a very fit horse but it is hard to say we can beat Winx — she is pretty special.’’

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “Hard to see them beating Winx with her dominance this time in and only the great uncertainty of racing stands in her way. Striving for ninth straight win. Just wants the field to break up, which it should, slot in midfield and be too good. Her stablemate Good Project is ready to run a huge race at his third run in andtrialled well recently after pulling up sore at Rosehill. Good 1600m stats and strong Randwick form. Happy Clapper is the weight runner dropping back from wfa with only 50.5kgs while Rudy will appreciate the sting out.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “I’m not going to risk Winx as she is simply too good but going to suggest a play just chopping out. Loving what Azkadellia is doing and our numbers are saying she can go very close to causing a boilover; back her each-way or use Winx to chop out.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “Some say the weights and history are against her, but that’s what makes Winx so special, her champion qualities allow her to overcome obstacles and I’ll be cheering. Happy Clapper best outsider.’’

Verdict: WINX

Originally published as Inside Mail: All the big bets, market movers, work whispers, trial pointers and quaddies for day one of The Championships at Randwick