Beat The Bookie value bets

PODCAST: OUR experts try to boost your bank balance with the best value bets of the weekend in the major cards around the nation.

4 min read

October 9, 2015 - 12:49PM

News Corp Australia Network

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 26: Craig Williams riding Stratum Star (ctr) defeats Damien Oliver riding Disposition (R) and Mark Zahra riding Under The Louvre (L) in Race 8, the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes during Melbourne Racing at Caulfield Racecourse on September 26, 2015 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

OUR experts try to boost your bank balance with the best value bets of the weekend in the major cards around the nation.

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Saturday meetings: CAULFIELD (10 races, start 1pm), RANDWICK (8 races, start 1.10pm), MORPHETTVILLE (8 races, start 1.42pm), DOOMBEN (8 races, start 2.02pm), BELMONT (8 races, 4.18pm). AEDT times.

LISTEN TO MACCA, MATTY AND DANNY PREVIEW CAULFIELD GUINEAS DAY

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

ANALYSIS: CAULFIELD GUINEAS PREVIEW

STABLE WATCH: CLEARY DUO READY FOR TAKEOFF

PRICE CHECK: EARLY GUIDE TO SATURDAY’S RACES

MONEY TRAIN: SPRING BETTING TRACKER

CAULFIELD

ROD NICHOLSON (Herald Sun). Form: 20336

EXCESS KNOWLEDGE

Race 5, No. 5

Gave the winner 4kg and almost ran him down last start here over this trip. Value each-way at $6.

TAB Fixed Odds: $6

MICHAEL MANLEY (Herald Sun). Form: 05606

DISPOSITION

Race 7, No. 7

Just got into an awkward spot before the turn which probably cost him victory in the Sir Rupert Clarke. Should get a great run just off the speed in the Toorak. Looks a great each-way chance.

TAB Fixed Odds: $4.80

DANNY RUSSELL (Herald Sun). Form: 31461

FAWKNER

Race 6, No. 2

Rather be on him, than not. Will turn for home ahead of favourite Kermadec, a horse that is stretching out to 2000m for the first time.

TAB Fixed Odds: $4.50

DARYL TIMMS (Herald Sun). Form: 1x868

WAWAIL

Race 10, No. 3

Ran up a succession of behinds up the straight last time. With luck, wins.

TAB Fixed Odds: $4.80

NICK QUINN (TAB) Form: 78030

SOVEREIGN NATION

Race 9, No. 8

Stylish winner at Moonee Valley thanks to a brilliant ride from Michael Walker who sticks with him and looks a tremendous each-way prospect at big odds.

TAB Fixed Odds: $15

SIMON MOY (Superracing). Form: 53930

TARZINO

Race 9, No. 13

Butchered start here last time before recording a powerful win with late surge. Exciting colt and definitely worth some thought.

TAB Fixed Odds: $11

CHRIS VERNUCCIO (Superracing) Form: 0

DISPOSITION

Race 7, No. 7

Third-up and should be ready to fire. Drawn perfectly in barrier 7 in big field and should enjoy a perfect trail. Meets Stratum Star 1.5kg better from the Rupert Clarke.

TAB fixed odds: $4.80

RANDWICK

NIC ASHMAN (Daily Telegraph). Form: 0165x

SUPARA

Race 7, No. 12

At the price, she’s the best bet of the day for mine. Desperately unlucky in two of her three runs this prep and has always shown the class to win this. I like the fact the stable galloped on Wednesday instead of Thursday as she races best a little fresh.

TAB Fixed Odds: $11

STEPHEN ZAMMIT (Daily Telegraph). Form: x0360

DIVERTIRE

Race 7, No. 2

From the in-form Joe Pride yard, this mare resumed with a fast-finishing fourth in the Group 3 Tibbie Stakes at Newcastle on September 18. Much fitter now, the 1600m will suit and she races well second-up. Expect a very prominent showing.

TAB Fixed Odds: $18

SHAYNE O’CASS (The Sportsman). Form: 40734

NOW’S THE TIME

Race 8, No. 12

Was 12th at the 800m, 11th at the turn, and was a bit of a handful to ride in the straight but Rory Hutchings kept him going forward and he was definitely hitting the line in a Rosehill midweeker the other day. He has form in Australia around some genuine Saturday class horses and while this is a leap to a Saturday Bm85 from a Wednesday Bm75, he looks like he’s in good nick and ready for the challenge.

TAB Fixed Odds: $17

DARREN PRENDERGAST (Superracing). Form: 39784

BALLET SUITE

Race 7, No. 5

Talented mare from the all conquering Chris Waller yard. Ran fourth in Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes in the autumn then headed north for the winter and defeated Bohemian Lily at Doomben. Fitter for two runs back from a spell and is two from two at this distance. Top chance.

TAB Fixed Odds: $7

DOOMBEN

NATHAN EXELBY (The Courier-Mail). Form: 32973

CROOKED BLAZE

Race 6, No 1

Had very solid Sydney/NSW form as a three-year-old and is nicely placed in 0MW grade with just 57kg after the claim. Looks like finding a nice spot from the draw and will give a huge sight.

TAB Fixed Odds: $4.60

BRAD DAVIDSON (Gold Coast Bulletin). Form: 48065

FLAMBOYER

Race 7 No. 3

Not my top pick in the race but the $21 on offer about Flamboyer is clearly over the odds. I don’t think the 1350m is his best distance but the horse is airborne right now and there is no reason he can’t run a cheeky race.

TAB Fixed Odds: $18

MORPHETTVILLE

Counter Spin (second left) appears excellent each-way value. Picture: Simon Cross

BEN SCADDEN (The Advertiser). Form: 47211

COUNTER SPIN

Race 8, No. 11

Talented gelding who wasn’t really suited from inside barrier last time before being beaten 2.5 lengths against similar opposition to this race. Stuck to his guns when second to smart galloper October Date before that and looks excellent each-way value.

TAB Fixed Odds: $8.50

LINCOLN MOORE (The Advertiser). Form: x1412

TILDY LAD

Race 8, No. 7

Has promised plenty but hasn’t yet delivered. Just the two starts and two trials in the past 10 months but gave an indication he was forward in condition winning a Naracoorte trial recently.

TAB Fixed Odds: $13

FEATURE RACE MARKETS

TAB FIXED ODDS

CAULFIELD GUINEAS

Caulfield, Saturday

$2.25 PRESS STATEMENT

$7.50 READY FOR VICTORY

$9 DAL CIELO

$11 TARZINO

$13 BASSETT, TULSA

$15 BON AURUM, SOVEREIGN NATION

$18+ Others