Melbourne spring carnival crystal ball: Our experts’ Group 1 predictions

Our racing experts have taken out the crystal ball and cast their Melbourne spring carnival Group 1 predictions.

Racenet

6 min read

August 30, 2024 - 12:00AM

Our experts 2024 Melbourne spring carnival crystal ball.

Via Sistina can get revenge on Pride Of Jenni in the Cox Plate, while trainer Chris Waller can also take home the Caulfield Cup and a Ciaron Maher import can justify Melbourne Cup favouritism.

The Racenet and Herald Sun give their early predictions for the big Group 1 races of the Melbourne spring carnival.

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MANIKATO STAKES

September 27, 1200m

GILBERT GARDINER

Veight: Went from a boy to a man last campaign and could now graduate to a beast. Likes The Valley and Tony and Calvin McEvoy know how to prepare a Manikato winner.

BRAD WATERS

Veight: Won the Australia Stakes at The Valley first-up last time in before his Group 1 triumph in Sydney. Can repeat the feat in the Manikato Stakes.

DANIEL SANKEY

Lady Of Camelot: The Golden Slipper winner is a bombproof filly who should be suited racing up on the pace at the tight Valley circuit. If she heads south, I want to be with her.

CHRIS VERNUCCIO

Bella Nipotina: She was brilliant during a long autumn/winter campaign with two wins and three seconds in Group 1s. Won this race two years ago.

GLENN McFARLANE

Veight: Super exciting colt who graduated as a Group 1 winner in the George Ryder and there looks to be much more in store this spring. Star!

JAMES LAMB

Bella Nipotina: Like a fine wine, she’s getting better with age – and after a dominant winter prep in Brisbane, she can land herself another Manikato after bolting up in this race in 2022.

VERDICT: Veight

Veight. Picture: Brett Holburt/Racing Photos via Getty Images

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CAULFIELD GUINEAS

October 12, 1600m

GILBERT GARDINER

Traffic Warden: Won the Group 2 VRC Sires’ Produce and touched off in the Group 1 Inglis Sires’ Produce in Sydney. Fourth in the Golden Slipper in between. Improving type.

BRAD WATERS

Traffic Warden: Quality Godolphin colt that was thereabouts at Group 1 level in the autumn. His racing style makes him the perfect Guineas horse.

DANIEL SANKEY

Epimeles: Patiently-handled Dundeel colt who turned heads in his two wins as a 2YO. Going to be a super stayer in time but as a 3YO, reckon the mile will be right up his alley.

CHRIS VERNUCCIO

Linebacker: He finished second in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes behind Broadsiding in just his third start on a Heavy 10. An exciting prospect this spring.

GLENN McFARLANE

Traffic Warden: So much will depend on which state James Cummings targets for his three-year-old guns Traffic Warden and Broadsiding. At the value, we’re with Sires’ Produce runner-up if he runs at Caulfield.

JAMES LAMB

Growing Empire: The Ciaron Maher-trained colt has won his last two starts by big margins after being narrowly denied on debut. He still has a few quirks but looks to have a stack of talent.

VERDICT: Traffic Warden

Traffic Warden. Picture: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

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CAULFIELD CUP

October 19, 2400m

GILBERT GARDINER

Middle Earth: Gelded since last-start failure in Europe. Form prior strong enough for Caulfield Cup.

BRAD WATERS

Riff Rocket: Dual Derby winner as a three-year-old and, as part of the Chris Waller camp, he’s in the right hands to measure up in the Caulfield Cup.

DANIEL SANKEY

Riff Rocket: Chris Waller has won two of the past four Caulfield Cups and the dual Derby winner has the perfect credentials to make it three from five.

CHRIS VERNUCCIO

Fawkner Park: Destroyed his rivals in the Q22, the same race which launched last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight.

GLENN McFARLANE

Riff Rocket: Looks ready-made for a Caulfield Cup assault off the back of two tough, impressive Derby wins and has that Chris Waller magic on his side too.

JAMES LAMB

Eliyass: When in doubt, go with the imports/internationals. This French-bred stayer was super winning at his Australian debut and will only improve off that.

VERDICT: Riff Rocket

Riff Rocket. Picture: Brett Holburt/Racing Photos via Getty Images

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COX PLATE

October 26, 2040m

GILBERT GARDINER

Via Sistina: Beware a James McDonald scorned. Nothing but respect for Pride Of Jenni but seven-day back-up King Charles III into Cox Plate has to be a query this far out.

BRAD WATERS

Prognosis: Smart Japanese galloper with strong form around last year’s Cox Plate winner Romantic Warrior. Hard to beat if he makes the trip.

DANIEL SANKEY

Via Sistina: Famously towelled up by Pride of Jenni in the autumn but I fancy she’s going to be a different beast in her second Australian preparation.

CHRIS VERNUCCIO

Via Sistina: Made a statement with her Winx Stakes win and will only get better over more ground. She can turn the tables on Pride Of Jenni.

GLENN McFARLANE

Via Sista: The Valley spectacular could be a battle of the girls this year, with Via Sistina’s breathtaking win in the Winx Stakes looking like a portent for the spring. Will she be beaten this campaign?

JAMES LAMB

Pride Of Jenni: It’s hard to go around the freewheeling mare after her Queen Elizabeth demolition job. Provided she’s sound, she’ll definitely be there.

VERDICT: Via Sistina

Via Sistina. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

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VICTORIA DERBY

November 2, 2500m

GILBERT GARDINER

Narbold: Showed promise in three starts to date, placed twice at Flemington including the Listed Anzac Day Stakes.

BRAD WATERS

Epimeles: Unbeaten son of Dundeel that should make the grade in the three-year-old ranks in the spring.

DANIEL SANKEY

Red Aces: $380,000 yearling who won the Byerley (1800m) impressively in July. Trainer Nick Ryan is bullish about his staying potential.

CHRIS VERNUCCIO

Politely Dun: He showed his staying potential with a big run in the Byerley Handicap, which looks a strong edition of the race this year.

GLENN McFARLANE

Politely Dun: Still learning, but this lightly-raced maiden is bred to be a staying star – by Australian Derby winner Dundeel out of Group 1 winner Politeness. The 2500m trip should be perfect.

JAMES LAMB

Red Aces: The son of Dundeel was going from 1300m to 1800m when winning at just his second start, suggesting he’ll have no issues at all stepping out beyond 2000m.

VERDICT: Politely Dun, Red Aces

Red Aces. Picture: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

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MELBOURNE CUP

November 5, 3200m

GILBERT GARDINER

Circle Of Fire: One of the favourites for a reason – ticks all the boxes this far out. Watch on Riff Rocket at a price.

BRAD WATERS

Tower Of London: Showed his Melbourne Cup credentials with an impressive Curragh Cup win and he could be the one to finally give Aidan O’Brien victory in Australia’s great race.

DANIEL SANKEY

Circle Of Fire: Proved his two-mile credentials with his Sydney Cup win but it’s his explosive turn of foot that makes him an exciting Melbourne Cup prospect. Ciaron Maher polish is the cherry on top.

CHRIS VERNUCCIO

Vauban: Redemption bid confirmed after his gutsy win in the Lonsdale Cup last weekend which followed brave efforts in the Curragh Cup and Ascot Gold Cup.

GLENN McFARLANE

Vauban: It’s still early doors for Cup selections, but you couldn’t help but be impressed by Vauban’s Lonsdale Cup win. He burnt some fingers here last year. But we’re a forgiving lot, and depending on the weight, he might get another chance.

JAMES LAMB

Circle Of Fire: He certainly ticks enough boxes to go on top: imported stayer, trained by Ciaron Maher, handles all conditions, and has already won over two miles in Australia in this year’s Sydney Cup.

VERDICT: Circle Of Fire

Circle Of Fire. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

VRC OAKS

November 7, 2500m

GILBERT GARDINER

Star Croupier: Won her Geelong maiden in May with authority and tipped out. Older brother Ain’tnodeeldun won multiple stakes races as a spring three-year-old.

BRAD WATERS

Sneaky Sunrise: Showed staying ability with her second over 1600m at Flemington in July and she’ll only improve as she steps up in trip.

DANIEL SANKEY

Matisse: Classy filly who was placed in both the Blue Diamond Fillies Preview and Prelude in her first campaign. She’s going to be electric at a mile and beyond this spring.

CHRIS VERNUCCIO

Femminile: The Dundeel filly charged home from last to win impressively in her second career start and should keep improving as she steps up in distance.

GLENN McFARLANE

Sneaky Sunrise: By The Autumn Sun out of a So You Think mare, that’s a nice little pointer to the future for the Lindsay Park filly. Looks like an Oaks trip and Flemington would suit her after two wins from her first five starts.

JAMES LAMB

Sneaky Sunrise: Her winter preparation will see her carry plenty of residual fitness into the spring and it was only her big weight that saw her beaten over the Flemington mile last start.

VERDICT: Sneaky Sunrise