Matt Stewart says overseas raiders making local stayers look inept

THE parochial thing would be to rate Side Glance and Adelaide as overseas also-rans merely making up the Cox Plate numbers.

International Horse's trackwork at Werribee Racecourse, The Andrew Balding trained Side Glance with Leanne Masterton on the track. Melbourne. 22nd October 2014. Picture: Colleen Petch.

YOU can’t eat value nor do the bookies pay out on parochialism.

The parochial thing would be to rate Side Glance and Adelaide as overseas also-rans merely making up the Cox Plate numbers, merely here to provide a hint of international flavour.

But punting parochially might leave you broke at Moonee Valley tomorrow.

Put down the flag for a moment and take note of what’s been happening.

A non-famous Japanese horse racing almost as wide as Veandercross and with less cover than Jean Shrimpton stormed down the outside to win last Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.

An hour or so before Admire Rakti, Japan’s 213th best horse, won the Caulfield Cup, recent arrivals Contributor and Noble Protector, flogged the humble locals in the David Jones Cup.

At Geelong on Wednesday another import, Caravan Rolls On, beat another import, Marksmanship, in the Geelong Cup.

Overseas bred and raced horses, whether raiders from Werribee or ones now trained here, are making our middle distance and staying horses look inept.

There are 11 locals (including long-ago imported Foreteller and Kiwi Silent Achiever) and three raiders in tomorrow’s Cox Plate.

Guest Of Honour, trained at Newmarket by Marco Botti, ran ninth in the Toorak Handicap at his first run here, when he never got warm.

Guest Of Honour is a fringe dweller in good European 1600m to 2000m races but those races are far deeper than our equivalents.

At $81, he is some sort of fringe chance tomorrow.

Side Glance is a $26 Cox Plate chance. He ran a sound third to top Plate fancies Fawkner and Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes, a race described by his trainer Andrew Balding as a “gasser’’ for the Cox Plate.

A year ago Side Glance ran sixth in the Cox Plate when fresh. Tightened up, he then won the Mackinnon.

Side Glance is not fresh in the Cox Plate this year, he is second-up as he was in the Mackinnon in 2013.

Side Glance was placed recently in an Arlington Million, ran fourth in a Dubai World Cup and was beaten less than two lengths in last year’s Hong Kong Cup.

Seriously, can you imagine Happy Trails or Criterion trotting around the globe with such success?

The $26, in from $34, is a great price.

Adelaide is the best horse in Aidan O’Brien’s stable, albeit by default. Australia, O’Brien’s dual Derby winner, was recently retired and Adelaide was bumped up the list.

O’Brien is the top trainer in Europe, with the biggest string of horses. So his best horse, even one who wasn’t a week ago and is more promising than proven, is significant.

The European (and Japanese) horses have lengths on ours, recent sobering carnival results have proven it. Adelaide wobbled around the home turn in a Group One race at Saratoga two starts back but still won.

He was a moral beaten in a Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe lead-up last start. Most of his Cox Plate rivals would not get through the front gate on Arc day, let alone warrant a start in the race.

Adelaide is a $6 chance.

The parochial punters will tiptoe around Adelaide and Side Glance, assuming our best, even in a plain year, will surely be too strong for a handful of Europeans who are not regarded as top notch back home.

But there is a trend that cannot be ignored.

Put a line through the visitors tomorrow and you might end up with a flag and little else.

Originally published as Matt Stewart says overseas raiders making local stayers look inept