Last say: Savvy Nature will prove a clever bet for punters in Vase
The Daily Telegraph's Ray Thomas has the final word on a bumper Cox Plate raceday and a very competitive Rosehill Gardens meeting.
Weather: Cool, partly cloudy with isolated showers and a forecast top temperature of 17c.
Track: Dead (4)
Rail: 2m out
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Weather: Mild, mostly sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 23c.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: 6m out
BE WARY: Melbourne has endured a week of cool, wet weather but the Moonee Valley track has held up well and is currently rated a dead 4. Given there was eight races held there last night and the Cox Plate will be race 10 today, it is likely horses away from the inside will be favoured.
At Rosehill, a cooler day after a week of very hot weather. The Rosehill track is rated a good 3 but will be very firm. With small fields in most races, race tempo will be crucial.
MOONEE VALLEY
THE BEST BET: Savvy Nature (race 5) is racing very well, winning the Spring Stakes at Newcastle then chasing home Complacent in the Gloaming Stakes and Spring Champion Stakes, finishing second and third respectively. Continues to hit the line strongly in his races and he has only seven rivals today so the small field will suit him.
Trainer John O'Shea has added blinkers to Savvy Nature today which may keep him just that little bit sharper in this race. He's better than his rivals and simply should win.
THE NEXT BEST: Catkins (race 9) is one of the most consistent mares in training. Her form this spring has been excellent including a Group 3 win at Caulfield before her close third to Fire Up Fifi in the Blazer Stakes at Flemington.
She was scratched from the Tristarc Stakes last week because of the wide barrier and is drawn a little awkwardly again today. She does have good speed out of the barrier and I'm confident she will get across into a good position right on the pace.
She has never been to 1600m before which is the only concern but she is very fit, so genuine and will be in the finish.
VALUE BET: Fiorente (race 10) goes into the Cox Plate on the back of two excellent lead-up efforts. He circled the field and finished over the top of his rivals to win the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and then was desperately unlucky when fourth to Happy Trails in the Turnbull Stakes.
Cox Plates are stamina-sapping tests but Fiorente absorbs pressure and is an outstanding stayer with a tremendous late finishing surge.
I think the wide barrier he has drawn will be too his advantage by race 10 today - he is out to $7 which is terrific value.
THE WHISPER: Not Listenin'tome (race 6) looks a very exciting young sprinter. He showed dazzling acceleration on debut, albeit against moderate opposition, to win his maiden at Bendigo easing down by nearly five lengths then repeated the effort at Ballarat last start romping home by more than two lengths.
This is a big step up in class but highly promising. He should settle just off the speed and if he shows the same acceleration he has produced at his last two starts, he could put a margin on his rivals from the turn. He can remain unbeaten.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
THE BEST BET: Landing (race 6) needed the run when resuming after a 17-month break and he did well to hold on for sixth to That's A Good Idea after racing up on the speed early.
He will certainly strip much fitter now and it is worth remembering the promise he showed as a three-year-old when he won his first four starts including a stakes race at Randwick before he was injured in the Hawkesbury Guineas last year.
Tough frontrunner and although he is second-up at 1500m today, he can dictate terms in front and prove very hard to run down.
NEXT BEST: Chateau Lafaite (race 2) is a full sister to Royal Descent and she is showing considerable promise with two wins and a second from her only three starts.
Resumed with a solid second to Earnest Desire before finishing strongly to run down Gamblestown right on the line at Randwick last start.
She is staying at 1400m but with the scratching of stablemate Earnest Desire she has only four rivals. Small field ensures she won't be too far off the speed throughout and should finish too strongly for her rivals.
VALUE BET: Angel Bee (race 7) continues to hold her form. She won scored a tough win over Maximillian at Randwick then raced up on the speed and held on gamely for fourth, beaten less than a length to Goldstone.
She has drawn nicely and will enjoy the run of the race on the limit weight. She is out to $8.50 which is way over the odds.
THE WHISPER: Disciple (race 8) goes very well fresh. He resumed in May and unleashed a powerful late surge to win before repeating the effort next start, both over the Rosehill 1200m course.
He is resuming today but showed in his four-race preparation last winter that he is a more seasoned, consistent racehorse.
He has had two soft barrier trials to prepare for his return and the good track conditions are his preferred racing surface. There is good speed in this race which will suit his come-from-behind racing pattern. With the apprentice's 3kg claim, he gets in very well a kilo under the limit.
THE BIG MONEY
MOONEE VALLEY
In the Cox Plate (race 10), Foreteller is $26 to $21 after a bet of $1000 each way at $26/$6.55 on TAB Fixed Odds. Mull Of Killough is $51 to $35 after a bet of $1000 at $41, It's A Dundeel is solid at $4 after a bet of $5000, $3600, $3000 and $2000 at those odds, Super Cool is $26 to $21 after bets of $1500 at $26, $1100 each way at $21/$5.44, and $1000 at $21, Long John is $9 to $7 after bets of $6000 at $9, $1500 at $8, $3000 at $7.50, Shamus Award is $31 to $21 after bets of $500 each way at $31/$7.85, $500 each way at $26/$6.71, $500 at $31 and $4000 each way at $26/$6.55.
In race 1, Good Prince $4.60 to $4 after a bet of $1500 each way at $4.60/$1.90,
In race 2, Vatican is $6 to $3.50 after bets of $1500 at $4 and $1500 at $3.70, Esprit De Bullet is $8 to $5 after bets of $1200 and $715 at $5.
In race 3, Such Hope is $18 to $14 after bets of $1000 each way at $18/$4.88 and $1000 each way at $16/$4.42.
In race 5, Savvy Nature is $2.30 to $2.15 after bets of $10,000 at $2.30 and $1500 at $2.20 and Tips And Beers is $7 to $5 after a bet of $2000 at $6,
In race 7, Shoreham is $7 to $5.50 after a bet of $1200 at $7.
In race 8, Toydini is $3.60 to $3.20 after bets of $1500 at $3.40 and $2000 and $1000 [twice] at $3.20.
In race 9, Lake Sententia is $8 to $4.20 after bets of $800 at $8, $900/$1000 at $6.50/$2.12, $800/$750 at $5/$2 and $1000 at $4.20.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
In race 1, Bold Circle is $8 to $3.80 after bets of $1000 at $8 and $755 at $7.
In race 4, Marden is $12 to $9 after a $1000 wager at $10, Animoso is $9 to $7 after a bet of $630 at $9. Gold Epona is $13 to $9 after a bet of $870 at $10, Pendolin is $8.50 to $4.20 after bets of $500 at $8.50 and $1250 at $5.
In race 6, Landing is $3.40 to $3.20 after bets of $835 and $800 at $3.40, and $1000 at $3.20.
In race 7, Monbazillac is $4.60 to $4 after a bet of $960 at $4.20.
In race 8, Heart Testa is $4.60 to $3.40 after bets of $800 at $4.60, $600 at $4.40 and $2000 at $3.60.
TAB FIXED ODDS MULTIS
$1000 Double at $26 on It's A Dundeel (Cox Plate) / Fiorente (Melbourne Cup)
INTERSTATE
Eagle Farm race 4: Leviosa
Eagle Farm race 6: What About Me
Morphettville race 6: Streetcar Valour
Morphettville race 7: Our Littletreasure
PROVINCIAL MAIL
Kembla Grange race 3: Flight Academy
Kembla Grange race 8: Press Club
#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.
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