Last say: Guelph, Prince Cheri and Dear Demi ready to shine at Rosehill
RACING editor Ray Thomas brings you the final word on today’s races with the best bets, late mail, money trail and punter warnings.
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with isolated showers from early in the afternoon and a forecast top temperature of 29c.
Track: Dead (5)
Rail: True
SANDOWN LAKESIDE
Weather: Cloudy with isolated showers and a forecast top temperature of 19c.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: 4m out
BE WARY
Rosehill’s track surface is improving but with the rating certain to stay in the dead range, expect riders to ease away from the inside from the home turn. Sandown’s good rating should provide an ideal racing surface today.
Follow our live coverage of today’s races
Spirit Of Boom wins first Group 1
ROSEHILL GARDENS
THE BEST BET: Guelph (race 9) has disappointed in both runs this time in but there has been genuine excuses for both flops.
A champion filly on her day, she was trapped wide first-up in the Light Fingers Stakes then seemed to struggle in the slow track conditions in the Surround Stakes at Warwick Farm.
With a better surface at Rosehill today, she definitely deserves another chance. Remember, Guelph has won four Group 1 races, three over 1600m, so the step up to 1500m will suit. There is good speed in this race so the tempo will suit.
Guelph has been heavily backed in the last 48 hours suggesting there is stable confidence the filly is ready to produce a form turnaround.
The bottom line is Guelph is the best horse in the race.
THE NEXT BEST: Prince Cheri (race 5) ran very well first-up, finishing just over three lengths behind weight-for-age stars Boban and It’s A Dundeel in the Chipping Norton Stakes.
It was an excellent return in an unsuitable race and augurs well for his chances today.
The increase in distance to 1900m and a return to handicap conditions are ideal. Prince Cheri is unbeaten in two starts at Rosehill and he does perform well second-up.
Talented stayer who won over 1500m and 2000m at this track last spring. Drawn well, track conditions suit and this isn’t an on overly strong race. Very hard to beat.
VALUE BET: Dear Demi (race 7) ran a blinder first-up when a closing third to Catkins in the Wiggle Stakes.
She sprinted very well fresh, a good sign that an arduous spring campaign which including a Caulfield Cup third and a down-the-track Melbourne Cup run has not taken a toll on her.
Her second-up record is very good — she won the Surround Stakes over 1400m at this point of her campaign last autumn and during the spring was beaten less than a length when third to champions It’s A Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood Stakes.
Tough mare who races well at Rosehill. She meets Catkins on 2.5kg better weight terms today.
A very good chance around the $13 mark in a wide open Coolmore Classic.
THE WHISPER: Earthquake (race 4) is the shortest favourite on the program and with good reason.
Unbeaten in three starts, she was dynamic in the Blue Diamond Stakes last month, winning easing down — as she has done in each of her wins.
Super talent with the ability to accelerate of a slow or fast pace. Earthquake has been sensationally backed in the last two days to win the Reisling Stakes today and the Golden Slipper in two weeks. She should win again.
SANDOWN
THE BEST BET: Pentometer (race 3) has been racing well in Sydney and is an emerging stayer.
He won well over 2400m at Randwick, defeating subsequent Auckland Cup runner-up Celtic Prince, then chased home Lucky Liaison over 2400m at Warwick Farm.
Comes back in distance to 2100m today for his Melbourne debut but the roomy Sandown track is ideal for his racing pattern.
Trainer Chris Waller has had a lot of success switching his horses between states and he has Pentometer placed to advantage today.
NEXT BEST: Wales (race 7) won the race stakes race named after his sire Redoute’s Choice on debut two years ago but had a long time out with injury.
He made a stunning return when finishing powerfully to win over 1400m on this track earlier this month.
Wales, a superbly bred four-year-old stallion and closely related to triple Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva, will only be fitter for his comeback win.
Very promising and his racing pattern to get back early negates his wide barrier. He only needs even luck from the turn to mow his rivals down again.
VALUE BET: Happy Galaxy (race 6) hasn’t been sighted in the Oakleigh Plate and Abell Stakes in two disappointing runs since resuming from a spell.
Hard to make excuses for either flop but today he is in a much easier race and drawn to advantage.
From barrier two he will jump and settle right on the pace, giving himself every chance. This time last year Happy Galaxy had reeled off four successive wins including the Zeditave Stakes at Caulfield and the Expressway Stakes at Warwick Farm. Given his race record, Happy Galaxy is very well in just a half kilo over the limit.
Fitter for two runs back after a long spell and I expect a vastly improved showing.
The $15 about Happy Galaxy is way over the odds.
THE WHISPER: Tango’s Daughter (race 5) showed promise as a juvenile and won at Sandown on the Hillside track back in June.
She failed in two spring carnival starts but really caught the eye first-up when she ran on well for a close third to Amatina and Gregers in the Security Stakes at Flemington earlier this month.
Tango’s Daughter will have derived considerable improvement from that first-up run and drops in grade today.
She’s drawn well and her apprentice’s claim brings her in just 2.5kg over the limit. Tango’s Daughter ticks a lot of boxes today.
THE BIG MONEY
ROSEHILL GARDENS
In race 1, Senta De Noche has been backed on TAB Fixed Odds, firming from $8 to $7 after a $1000 wager at $8.
Race 2, Desert Wizard is $6.50 to $4.60 after bets of $500 at $6.50, $350 each way at $6.50 and $800 at $5.50, Casino Swoop is also $6.50 to $4.60 after bets of $500 at $6.50 and $450 at $5.50,
Race 3, Jabali is $4.20 to $4 after a bet of $6000 at $4.20.
Race 4, Earthquake has firmed from $2 to $1.70 after bets of $3000 at $2, $30,000 at $1.90 and $1500 at $1.80.
Race 5, Entirely Platinum is $6 to $5.50 after bets of $500 and $400 at $6, Diametric is $11 to $7.50 after bets of $500 and $200 at $11, $650 at $7.50, $500 at $7.50 [twice] and $500 at $5.50.
Race 6, Messene has been heavily backed from $4.60 to $3.20 after bets of $600 at $4.60, $500 at $4.20, $1000 at $3.80 and $750 at $3.50.
Race 7, Catkins is $5 to $3.80 after bets of $1000 and $300 each way at $5, $2000 at $4, $1800 at $3.80, $1800 and $500 at $3.60, $2000 at $3.40, Bonaria is firm at $15 after a bet of $500 at those odds,
Race 8, Fiorente is firm at $2.50 after bets of $5000 at $2.50 and $3700 at $2.50, It’s A Dundeel is also solid at $2.90 after bets of $3000 and $2500 at those odds, and Foreteller remains at $11 after a $1000 bet at those odds.
Race 9, Guelph has firmed from $3.80 to $3 after bets of $2000 at $3.80, $2000 at $3.50 and $3000 at $3.50, Traitor is $6 to $5 after bets of $2000 (twice) at $6, and Equator is firm at $15 after a $1000/$500 at $15/$4.02.
SANDOWN
In race 2, Lady Lakshmi is $6 to $5 after a $2000 wager at $6.
Race 4, Late Charge is $4.50 to $4.20 after a bet of $800 at $4.50.
Race 5, Tango’s Daughter is $5.50 to $3.90 after bets of $500 at $5.50, $500 at $5, $800 at $4.80 and $600 at $4.20.
Race 7, Wales is $6.50 to $5 after bets of $1500 at $6.50 and $1000 at $5.50, Trade Commissioner is $9.50 to $7.50 after bets of $800 each way at $9.50 and $500 at $8.
INTERSTATE
Eagle Farm race 4: Listen Son
Eagle Farm race 6: Little Bit Ditsy
Morphettville race 2: Classy Jack
Morphettville race 3: Stella Lante
PROVINCIALS
Newcastle race 5: Saghann
Newcastle race 7: Lures
#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.
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