Last say: Catkins and Sertorius are the standout bets at Warwick Farm and Flemington
RAY Thomas reveals his best bets, punters’ warnings, money movers and track whispers in his must-read Last Say column.
WARWICK FARM
Weather: Partly cloudy, isolated showers with a forecast top temperature of 28c.
Track: Slow (7)
Rail: Normal
FLEMINGTON
Weather: Light showers in the morning then clearing to a sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 27c.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: Normal
BE WARY
More showers fell in Sydney overnight and Warwick Farm is now a slow 7 for today’s Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes meeting.
The rail is back to the normal position for the first time in two months but generally jockeys look to make their finishing runs a little wider in the straight.
Watch the first couple of races closely to see if there is any discernible track bias. At Flemington, the track is in perfect condition for Super Saturday with the rail back in the normal position.
I would expect Flemington to provide a very fair racing surface.
WARWICK FARM
THE BEST BET
Catkins (race 4) was excellent first-up, stalking Steps In Time throughout the Breeders Classic before wearing that mare down to win narrowly.
She has returned in terrific order and seems to be going as well as her breakthrough spring campaign last year when she emerged as a genuine Group 1 mare.
Her second-up record is sound. she has drawn ideally in barrier six, the soft track conditions are perfect, she’s won at Warwick Farm previously, and the set weights and penalties conditions of this race suit her.
Catkins ticks all the boxes today — only bad luck will beat her.
THE NEXT BEST
That’s A Good Idea (race 3) is a very promising sprinter who raced his way through the grades last spring, winning four races in five starts including establishing a track record for the Randwick 1200m course.
His first-up effort when fourth to Terravista in the Southern Cross Stakes was an eye-catching effort. At his second run back last campaign, he romped home by four lengths at Canterbury to begin his rise to prominence.
Significantly, the blinkers go back on today which is what That’s A Good Idea needs to show his best. Slight query on the rain-affected track but I expect him to lead and dominate this race.
VALUE BET
Alpha Miss (race 2) won the Gimcrack Stakes and Victory Vein Plate last spring before resuming with a tiring fourth to Mossfun in the Widden Stakes.
Mossfun then franked the form by romping away with the Silver Slipper Stakes last week.
Alpha Miss was competitive first-up until her condition gave out in the final 150m. Fitter now and she seems to handle rain-affected conditions well.
In a tough Lonhro Plate, Alpha Miss is rated at double figure odds which is very appealing. Good each way chance.
THE WHISPER
Terravista (race 6) was brilliant first-up in the Southern Cross Stakes, unleashing a brilliant burst of acceleration to win convincingly.
He will strip even fitter today and the rain-affected conditions are a plus. Terravista was beaten by White Sage when they clashed in the Festival Stakes last spring but the former was coming to the end of a long preparation.
I was keen on White Sage as she excels on wet tracks and wary about the three-year-old El Roca but the push for Terravista can’t be ignored.
FLEMINGTON
THE BEST BET
Sertorius (race 8) ran a blinder first-up in the Futurity Stakes, coming from the back of the field on the turn to finish fast and run second, beaten less than a half-length by Moment Of Change.
He will appreciate going to 1600m, his second-up record is good, and he has raced well at Flemington previously.
A very game horse, Sertorius won the Bendigo Cup and Zipping Classic last spring and was narrowly beaten in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He will be improved by his first-up run and this isn’t a strong Group 2 race.
Sertorius stands out as a clear top selection. Back him with confidence.
NEXT BEST
Solicit (race 5) was very impressive when resuming, leading throughout and thrashing her rivals by nearly three lengths in the Vanity Stakes.
It was a super return by Solicit after her very consistent spring campaign the included successive placings in the Manifold Stakes, Ethereal Stakes, Wakeful Stakes and Victoria Oaks.
Class act and it is worth noting that connections decided against running her in the Australian Guineas last week to reserve her for the Kewney Stakes where she is racing against her own age and sex.
This is a good field of fillies but Solicit only needs to reproduce her first-up effort and she will be too good again.
VALUE BET
Knoydart (race 6) scored three successive wins to start his campaign including the Canterbury Classic and Hareeba Stakes then produced a super effort when a fast-finishing third to Lankan Rupee in the Oakleigh Plate.
He was slowly away and got a long way out of his ground early, turning for home in 14th position before unleashing a powerful late burst to claim the minor placing.
Knoydart meets Lankan Rupee on 1.5kg better weight terms and he will appreciate the 1200m straight course.
The Newmarket is typically wide open and Knoydart is excellent each way value at $10.
THE WHISPER
Fiorente (race 7) is going to start around even money in the Australian Cup but any price a winner is a good price — and this horse is a winner.
There isn’t a tougher racehorse than Fiorente as he has shown with his gritty Melbourne Cup win and his fast finishing efforts to win the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and Peter Young Stakes this season.
The latter race was his comeback this autumn and it was Fiorente at his best, overcoming a moderate tempo to come from back in the field to swamp his rivals near the line.
With his Cox Plate conqueror Shamus Award and also Mourayan likely to set a genuine pace up front, it will suit Fiorente perfectly. With even luck in running Fiorente should win.
THE BIG MONEY
WARWICK FARM
In race 2, Wandjina is $4.20 to $3.40 with TAB Fixed Odds after bets of $1200 at $4.20, $1000 and $500 at $3.80, Memorial is firm at $3.40 after a bet of $1400 at those odds, Alpha Miss has eased from $12 to $13 despite bets of $900 and $300 at $12, Donelle is at $10 after a $1000 wager at those odds, Aerobar is $71 to $51 after a $1000 wager at $71.
Race 3, That’s A Good Idea is $3.40 to $3 after bets of $1000 at $3.40 and $600 at $3.
Race 4, Catkins is $2.60 to $2.30 after some big bets including $6000 each way at $2.60/$1.35, $1500, $1155 and $1000 at $2.60.
Race 5, It’s A Dundeel is $1.95 to $1.85 after bets of $3000, $2500, $800, $600 and $500 at $1.95, $1500 and $1000 twice at $1.90 and $2000 at $1.85.
Race 6, El Roca is $3.40 to $3.20 after bets of $800 and $500 at $3.40, Terravista is $4.60 to $4.20 after bets of $2000 at $4.60, $1900 and $500 twice at $4.40, Less Is More is $101 to $51 after bets of $100 at $101, $300 and $110 at $81, $300 at $61 and $200 at $51.
Race 7, Sweet Idea is $3.80 to $3.60 after bets of $2000, $800 and $600 at $3.80, Arabian Gold is $23 to $17 after a bet of $250 at $23 and $1000 each way at $18.
Race 8, Entirely Platinum is $4.20 to $2.60 after bets of $750 at $4.20, $500 at $3.80 and $1000 at $3.60, Too Hi Tek is $51 to $41 after a bet of $200 at $51 and Lucky Lucky Lucky is at $51 despite a bet of $500 each way at those odds.
FLEMINGTON
Race 1, Ygritte is $3.40 to $2.70 after bets of $1500 and $600 at $3.40, $1000 at $3.20 and $800 at $2.90, Thalia is $15 to $6.50 after bets of $400 at $10, $450 at $8, $1000 and $300 at $7.50 and $2100 at $6.50.
Race 2, Politeness is $9 to $6 after bets of $500 at $9 and $1000 at $6.50, I Am Titanium is $15 to $12 after bets of $300 at $15 and $240 at $13, Awasita is $15 to $8.50 after bets of $700 each way at $15 and $300 at $11.
Race 3, Marcardo $4.40 to $3.40 after bets of $550, $400 and $300 at $4.40, $500 at $4.20, $2000 and $400 at $4.20 and $2500 each way at $3.60, Awesome Rock is $7 to $4.20 after bets of $400 at $7, $500 at $6, $300 at $5, $1000 at $4.20.
Race 5. Solicit has firmed from $2.50 to $2 after bets of $2000 at $2.50, $1200 and $500 at $2.30, $1700, $1000 and $500 at $2.10, $3000 and $500 at $2.05, $4000, $2000 twice and $1500 at $2.
Race 6, Mister Milton is $101 to $61 after a $500 each way wager at $101, Knoydart is at $9.50 after a $2000 each way wager at those odds.
Race 7, Fiorente is solid at $2.05 after some big bets at those odds including ($4000, $2500, $2000, $1400 and $1000 twice, Thunder Fantasy is $9 to $8 after a $3000 wager at $9.
Race 9, Rhythm To Spare is $5.50 to $5 after a $1000 at $5.50.
INTERSTATE
Doomben race 6: Pitt Street
Doomben race 8: Tambo’s Jewel
Morphettville race 2: Differing Fortunes
Morphettville race 8: Stella Lante
PROVINCIAL MAIL
Newcastle race 3: Resurrect
Newcastle race 6: Sky Prince
#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.
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