Last Say: all can Mecir continue great run of summer form at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday?
ALL the last-minute tips, market movers and form for Saturday's big race meetings at Rosehill Gardens and Caulfield.
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy with a forecast top temperature of 31c.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: True
CAULFIELD
Weather: Warm, sunny day before a late gusty change a forecast top temperature of 35c.
Track: Dead (4)
Rail: 9m out
BE WARY: The first raceday at Rosehill since the January 4 meeting. The rail shifts 3m back to the true today but watch the early races closely to determine if there is a slight bias to on-pacers, as there has been at recent Rosehill meetings. Caulfield has come up a dead 4 but will improve into the good range, probably even before the first race. With the rail out 9m, the track may favour those racing up on the pace.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
THE BEST BET: Mecir (race 6) should nearly be unbeaten this preparation. He has won two of his four starts this summer but also had two luckless defeats including his last-start fourth behind Red Excitement at Randwick two weeks ago. Mecir never got a clear crack at them at any stage at Randwick and probably should have won. He scored at his previous start over today's 1400m course and in fast time. Drawn ideally in barrier one and I doubt he will get as far back as he has in recent starts. Very fit, in-form galloper and with the scratching of Ecuador, he is a clear top pick.
THE NEXT BEST: Reply Churlish (race 8) faces the toughest test of her career but she has been in brilliant form this campaign. Unbeaten in four runs this time in, she began her winning sequence in a Canberra maiden and has raced her way through the grades impressively. She won her first three starts by big margins and was set to do the same when she dashed clear half way down the straight at Rosehill over 1800m last start but got tired near the line and just held on to score. She has been given a month between runs and is switching back to a more suitable 1500m distance today. Admittedly she is up in grade but gets in on the limit, has drawn to get the gun run from barrier two and has champion jockey Jim Cassidy in the saddle. Reply Churlish is poised to continue her winning momentum.
VALUE BET: Hurrara (race 5) appeals as a good each way chance today. He has been improved by two runs back from a spell, most notably his last-start second to Party Dress at Randwick after he led for a long way. His form third-up from a spell is impressive and he generally races well over this course and distance. Hurrara likes to lead but he may not be able to cross the speedy Kencella who is drawn inside him. Hurrara can settle outside the favourite and really put the pressure on his younger rival. With the apprentice's claim, Hurrara gets into the race with 57kg and is giving Kencella only 1kg. Hurrara at $13 is terrific value.
THE WHISPER: Sense And Reason (race 3) is an improving filly with impressive formlines. She broke through at her fourth start when storming home from the back of the field to win at Randwick's Kensington meeting late in December. She then ran up to that effort when finishing strongly for second to the talented Shamalia at Randwick three weeks ago. Define ran fourth that day and has since won well at Randwick. Sense And Reason is up against stablemate and favourite All Cerise, an impressive first-up winner at Canterbury recently but the former is race fit, drawn well and will appreciate 1400m.
CAULFIELD
THE BEST BET: Lord Of The Sky (race 7) is a boom young sprinter set to win again. He has won three of his only four starts and probably should be unbeaten. Exciting efforts in both wins this preparation, scoring easily when resuming over 1000m at Caulfield back in December then gave a compelling exhibition of sustained speed when he romped home by nearly seven lengths again over the Caulfield 1000m last start. He obviously enjoys this course and distance and has drawn an ideal barrier (five) for his debut at stakes level. The only negative is that he has never raced on a good track before but this is hardly a reason not to back him with confidence today. A very promising sprinter on the Oakleigh Plate trail.
NEXT BEST: Laidback Larry (race 8) has created a huge impression with three runaway wins in Sydney this summer. He has won those races by an aggregate margin of 12 lengths including his easy four-and-a-half lengths romp at Randwick two weeks ago. Laidback Larry is a natural, front-running stayer with a high cruising speed and he gets his chasing rivals off the bit and under pressure a long way from home. This is his first time racing the Melbourne direction but if he handles the reverse way and brings his Sydney form to Caulfield, he will win.
VALUE BET: Bugatty (race 4) is over the odds around $6. Dashing colt and readymade juvenile, he was run down late by the very smart Chivalry on debut at Moonee Valley then was never troubled leading throughout to score over 1000m at Flemington last start. Drawn to suit in barrier two, he has the natural pace to take advantage of the inside gate and will be in front for a long way. The Caulfield 1100m should suit his racing style. Hard to beat again.
THE WHISPER: Prince Harada (race 6) resumes in the Manfred Stakes but he has performed fresh previously. Very talented colt who raced without luck in the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas at Group 1 level at the end of his spring campaign. Reportedly flying in trackwork and I expect he will make a winning return today, setting up a big autumn campaign.
THE BIG MONEY
ROSEHILL GARDENS
In race 1, I'm No Phony is $16 to$13 after bets of $500 at $16 and $300 at $15. Race 2, Delecation has firmed from $3.80 to $3.40 after bets of $840 at $3.70 and $1500 at $3.40. Race 3, All Cerise is $2.90 to $2.40 after bets of $1500 at $2.90, $1200 at $2.80, $3500at $2.70 and $2000 at $2.50. Race 4 and Watabout is the big firmer coming in from $5 to $2.70 after some important scratchings and bets of $600 at $5 and $370 at $4.40. Race 5, Kencella is firm at $3.10 after some big bets including $1500 at $3.60. Race 7, Junoob is all the rage and has firmed from $3.40 to $2.80 after bets of $1000 at $3.20 twice and $2000 at $2.80. Race 8, Reply Churlish has been backed from $6 to $5.50 after bets of $1100 each way at $6 and $3000 at $6.
CAULFIELD
In race 2, Commanding Time has firmed from $35 to $18 after bets of $300 at $34, $200 each way at $26 and $1000 at $17, Our Hand Of Faith is $5 to $3.60 after bets of $500 at $5, $1500 at $4.60 and $2000 at $4. Race 3, Flying Hostess is $4.40 to $3.60 after bets of $1000 at $4.40, $1800 at $4 and $1500 at $3.80. Race 4, Nayeli has firmed from $3.50 to $3.20 after a bet of $2000 at $3.50. Race 5, Five All is $5.50 to $5 after a bet of $1000 at $5.50. Race 6, Bull Point is $4.20 to $3.40 after bets of $3500 at $4.20, $2000 at $4, $2800 at $3.80 and $1500 at $3.60. Race 7, Lord Of The Sky has been heavily backed from $2.80 to $2 after bets of $2,500 at $2.80 $2000 at $2.70 $1500 at $2.35 and $4000 at $2.25. Race 8, Laidback Larry is $2.50 to $2.30 after bets of $2500 at $2.50 and $1900 at $2.50.
INTERSTATE
Doomben race 2: Agitate
Doomben race 8: Mishani Persuader
Morphettville race 2: Hucklebuck
Morphettville race 5: Whitlam
PROVINCIAL MAIL
Kembla Grange race 5: Palliate
Kembla Grange race 7: Il Dominatore
Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.
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