Kembla tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas agree that Golden Slipper winner Stay Inside can buck the curse and win first-up in the San Domenico Stakes at Kembla.
THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances at the feature 10-race San Domenico Stakes meeting at Kembla Grange on Saturday.
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SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 5, No.1: SUBTERRANEAN
NEXT BEST
Race 7, No.13: HEART OF PUISSANCE
BEST VALUE
Race 1 No.3: FOODIE KING
RAY’S BEST
Race 3, No.5: STEEL DIAMOND
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.1: SUBTERRANEAN
BEST VALUE
Race 7, No.3: QUICK THINKER
R1: TAB HIGHWAY (1400M)
Ron Dufficy: I think there is a dark horse here called Foodie King. He’s an ex-Kiwi who was very good winning his first start here at Coonamble then came back in distance when unplaced in successive starts. This looks a target race back out to 1400m, he’s a very strong horse who likes it wet and will be hard to beat. The Storm In Me is the danger. She is an improver who has won two of her past three starts on wet and dry tracks. Danzadel positions well for this race and was good in the lead-up. She is ready to win. Propose A Toast may get a soft run up near the lead and is a definite improver.
Ray Thomas: Danzadel has had her chances but I’ve got to stay with her. She has produced three solid runs since resuming, she enjoys rain-affected conditions and gets her chance. Hurn Court is racing in very good form and has Hugh Bowman to guide him. Kelvedon Road bolted in at Albury last start is at good each way odds for this race. The Storm In Me is an emerging filly who was very impressive at Muswellbrook and is right in the mix.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Foodie King $15-$8.50-$9.50 ($500 x $2,000 e/w @ $14/$4.20), Propose A Toast $11-$5 ($400 @ $15, $200 x $300 e/w @ $9/$3, $300 @ $7.50, $500 @ $5.50, $300 @ $5), The Storm in Me $15-$7
R2: MIDWAY HCP (1300M)
Dufficy: It is hard to get away from Royalzel. He has had 56 days and a trial since winning a stakes race at Flemington in impressive style. He loves it wet and looks well placed. Bowery Breeze is the danger. She ran right up to her good trial running well-first-up at this track two weeks ago, the softer track and 1300m here is more to her liking. Trainer Gary Portelli has a strong hand in this race as apart from Royalzel he also saddles up Lord Zoulander and Exceltic. Lord Zoulander is a tough on-pacer, he has already won a Midway and gets control up front. Exceltic ran good sectionals to win first-up then did enough last start to ensure he stays in the mix.
Thomas:Royalzel showed considerable potential last season, winning three of his five starts culminating with his dominant effort in the Gibson Carmichael Stakes. All his wins have been on soft-heavy tracks so he gets conditions he enjoys here. Taking on older horses but this talented colt is the one to beat. Exceltic gets back in his races but he has a powerful late surge. Bowery Breeze will be improved by that very good last start effort and she rates highly. Awesome Lad blew the start when resuming and can be expected to improve sharply here. He is way over the odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lord Zoulander $10-$8, Royalzel $2.90-$2.10-$2.25 ($300 @ $2.90, $1,500 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.40, $500 @ $2.30)
R3: PELTZER HCP
Dufficy: I want to back the Godolphin mare Pensato. She was second-up after a long spell at Kembla last start and was as good as anything coming out of that race with more improvement to come. She has some nice, wet track form and I’m comfortably with her on the limit weight. Celestial Falls may just lack a bit of match practice after over a year off but trainer Mark Newnham gets them pretty right first-up and she has the best form. Steel Diamond ran a better race at Kembla last start and seems to get a good run from that drawn and with Hugh Bowman on board. Rock My Wand is threatening to win another race and gets her opportunity here.
Thomas:Steel Diamond had to cover extra ground and still loomed up to win only for Bring The Ransom to dive through underneath her at Kembla two weeks ago. Steel Diamond gets the soft track conditions she excels at here and should get the run of the race from her favourable draw. Rock My Wand is racing consistently, she gets in well at the weights and is also drawn to get every chance. Celestial Falls is a big watch first-up after such a long break. Hasstobegood has been improved by two runs from a spell and is up to her right trip now.
TAB MARKET MOVERS:
R4: NSWROA TROPHY (2000M)
Dufficy:Great House was back in distance and racing on a dry track last start which was against him but I noticed him making good ground late. This will top him off the 2000m and I think $10 is way over the odds. Mankayan is a well-performed import who captured everyone’s attention first-up at Flemington and will have a lot of support here. Gemmahra is racing in good heart and should go well again. Onemore Sapphire is racing well without winning and should be competitive on the wet track,
Thomas:Mankayan did run a blinder at Flemington at his Australian debut and he does look a progressive stayer. He will appreciate getting out in trip and the rain-affected conditions will help. I also have Great House right in this race for the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Gemmahra is in a rich vein of form and has to be included among the main chances. Pale King found the 1400m too short when resuming and although he is jumping sharply in trip, he will be competitive at each way odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Celestial Falls $15-$9
R5: MING DYNASTY QUALITY (1400M)
Dufficy: I’m very keen on Subterranean. He had a lot to do when he got a long way back in a moderately run race first-up. He is 2kg better off against Coastwatch and 1400m suits. Coastwatch is the danger. He is ready third-up and also looking for this trip. There was no fluke about the win of Chills in a strong midweek maiden. I wouldn’t sell her short at big odds. Military Expert got his maiden out of the way last start and is a chance of standing up to this better class.
Thomas:Subterranean shaped promisingly first-up when a close fourth behind Tiger Of Malay in the Up And Coming Stakes here two weeks ago. The step up to 1400m is in his favour but he does need a touch of luck getting into position from an awkward barrier. Dark Rebel is lightly raced but has plenty of potential. He won on debut easily on a wet track and can run a race here at value odds. Coastwatch was brave when just beaten by Tiger Of Malay last start and he rates as one of the hardest to beat. I’m expecting an improved run from Head Of State.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Subterranean $4.60-$5.50-$5 ($300 @ $5.50 TWICE), Yulong Turbo $15-$12
R6: SAN DOMENICO STAKES (1100M)
Dufficy: A terrific race, Ray. I think the wet track may play into the hands of the Golden Slipper winner Stay Inside. His two best wins were in the Pierro Plate and Golden Slipper on soft 7 tracks when he glided through the going. He has had two trials; he is ready to race and the wet track is to his advantage. Remarque is a boom colt with a possible Everest slot on the line. He was unlucky first-up and gets his chance to prove his credentials here. Paulele was absolutely brilliant first-up in The Rosebud and he did win the Kindergarten Stakes on a soft 7 in the autumn. He could be the new kid on the block. In The Congo didn’t have a lot of luck last start in The Rosebud, he is very fit and he is favoured by the inside draw.
Thomas: We’ve got the same top four. I’m also leaning to Stay Inside. He is trialling well and gets the soft track he enjoys. Brilliant colt and the one to beat. Remarque was held up for a run and should have finished much closer in The Rosebud. He’s a real talent and likely to be ridden a stalking race. With clear galloping room from the turn, Remarque is going to be hard to hold out. The same applies with Paulele. Perhaps we are overlooking the obvious because Paulele was quite outstanding winning The Rosebud. In The Congo is an underrated young sprinter and he will make his own luck on speed here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Stay Inside $2.30 unchanged ($700 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.30 TWICE, $350 @ $2.30, $300 @ $2.30 TWICE), Paulele $4-$3-$2.80 ($500 @ $4, $385 @ $3.60, $300 @ $3.50, $8,000 @ $3.10, $5,000 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3.10, $600 @ $3, $500 @ $3)
R7: PREMIER’S CUP (2000M).
Dufficy:Heart Of Puissance might be a Metropolitan contender. He has had 98 days off, won a trial in Melbourne and is a talented, up and coming stayer. He likes soft tracks and his lightweight will be hard to hold out. Spirit Ridge is his danger. He has won two 1200m trials off a short break although he has had no real exposure on a wet track in Australia other than a soft 5 so that is a query. Harpo Marx is hard to knock as he has a huge weight drop here, gets the speed up front and he’s in great form. Dashing Willoughby has shown a bit of dash in his trials and is a yard and market watch.
Thomas: I’ve gone for Quick Thinker at the odds but I’d be more bullish if this was a heavy track. A soft 7 is still OK for a stayer who needs rain-affected tracks to show his best. The Hawkesbury was just too firm for him last start and a huge improvement is on the cards here. Mubariz has held his form through a long winter campaign and is a good lightweight chance. Harpo Marx is another very well in at the weights, rock-hard fit and racing in great form. Dashing Willoughby has displayed surprising speed at the trials and should go well at his debut for the Chris Waller stable.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Spirit Ridge $6-$8 ($1,000 e/w @ $7.50/$2.60), Harpo Marx $8-$7-$7.50 ($300 @ $8.50), Heart Of Puissance $4.60-$3.80-$3.90 ($500 e/w @ $4.60/$1.95, $350 @ $4, $500 @ $3.70)
R8: RANVET HANDICAP (1200M)
Dufficy:King Of Sparta picks himself on form but whether he can accelerate like we know he can on a softer track is the gamble. He needs to switch off in his races but judging by his last win he is the one to beat again. Tycoonist has covered ground at his last two starts so he’s had excuses. He’s got the good barrier this time and James McDonald is a big plus. Madam Legend has had a month and a trial since her last start third at 1400m. She is better suited at 1200m. Peyton Place gets the lead here and is a good, tough country sprinter.
Thomas: I’m staying with King Of Sparta. He smashed the Kembla 1200m record with a brilliant win here last but he is also effective on soft tracks. He’s drawn to get cover which is the key to him settling in his races. The one to beat again. Triple Ace hasn’t missed a top three placing in 10 starts, winning five. He’s tough and genuine. Zakat is fitter now and will appreciate the give in this track. Madam Legend looks well placed here and is definitely worth another chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Animate $19-$17-$9.50 ($2,000 x $1,000 e/w @ $17/$4), Fastconi $14-$10-$11
R9: GODOLPHIN HCP (1000M)
Dufficy: I think Gleneagles might do something here. I know this is short of his best distance at 1000m but he gets in very light with only 52kg and I’m sure he will be running on. Majestic Shot has trialled the house down leading into this race after a brilliant last start win before her break. At her previous starts she ran second to Ballistic Lover which is very good form. She just has to overcome that wide barrier which is the only reason she is not on top. Andermatt has been gelded and is ready to go fresh. Sixgun maps better from the draw and back to 1000m is a big plus.
Thomas: I’m a big fan of Majestic Shot. She’s a very talented sprinter blessed with tremendous closing speed. She will have to go back from her wide barrier but provided she gets cover early, and a clear run from the turn, I’m expecting her to power over the top of this field. I’m wary of Andermatt. He has ability, his trial was good and James McDonald has the ride. Gleneagles is another emerging talent and he will be competitive. Sixgun has a race fitness edge and he’s drawn to get the right run.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Majestic Shot $6-$4.60, Andermatt $6-$4.40-$3.30 ($350 x $450 e/w @ $6/$2.30, $250 @ $6, $500 @ $5, $400 @ $4.60, $1,000 @ $4.40, $500 @ $4.20 TWICE, $500 @ $4, $400 @ $3.80)
R10: ATC THANK YOU OWNERS HCP (1500M)
Dufficy: This is the toughest racer of the day. I have gone with the emerging Kingsheir. I concede he got all the breaks when winning first-up but he was very authoritative and I expect he will be hard to hold out again. I have loved the way Soami has been hitting the line in easier races. He is a horse on the rise. Snitzify is at big odds but he has been close enough at his two runs back and is ready to peak. Yiyi had excuses last start after looking impressive, winning twice on softer tracks so he could easily bounce back.
Thomas: I’ve also got Kingsheir beating Soami. Both are promising types in winning form. Kingsheir was very impressive first-up and is probably open to more improvement. Soami commands respect and he’s found that winning habit. He will measure up to Saturday grade. Yiyi is racing well and gets back to a soft track here which he races best. Toomuchtobear has gained a start and it would not surprise if he maintained his winning momentum.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kordia $14-$13 ($356 @ $14), Soami $14-$9 ($200 x $400 e/w @ $14/$4, $250 x $300 e/w @ $12/$3.60, $500 @ $10), Toomuchtobear $7-$6 ($300 @ $7)
SATURDAY EXTRA
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
GOULBURN
BEST BET
Race 2, No.9: LEFT REELING
Dundeel filly who ran a huge race here last start splitting two horses that both won within the last week. On her way to better races.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.4: ARTHUR FRANCIS
Both runs are ‘fifths’, first one to Stay Inside, the other one to Profiteer in a $2 million race. Trialled like a bomb 8-days ago. Note he has accepted for Wyong Sunday as well.
VALUE BET
Race 7, No.7: LOVE ME QUIETLY
Third run for ‘Sarge’ on Saturday. The first two were ripper and stepping up to 1400m is the key. Placed to win.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 1,4,9,11
Race 5: 5,7,11,13
Race 6: 6,8
Race 7: 1,7
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Rory Hutchings, Sydney’s Champion Apprentice in 2015/16 is a chance to win the last two legs of the Quaddie on John Sargent pair All Things and Love Me Quietly.
PORT MACQUARIE
BEST BET
Race 5. No.7: INNERVOICE
Jenny Graham-trained mare who has raced here at home five times for two wins and two placings. Mixed and matched it in better races than this one.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.4: RAZANO
On; y won 3 from 33 but he has placed 9 times and 7 of those are seconds. More importantly; 2 of his 3 career wins are at this same track/distance.
More Coverage
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.7: ANIME
One of a handful of chances for Terry Evans on the card; drawn well and in the perfect race if she can oblige.
Originally published as Kembla tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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