Irish stablemates set to battle for Melbourne Cup supremacy

Picking the winner of the Melbourne Cup is one of the toughest tasks in racing, but there are a couple of Irish-trained horses who seem to be standouts this year.

Vauban might be the Melbourne Cup favourite, but it’s stablemate Absurde that’s perhaps the better bet to win the great race at Flemington on Tuesday.

As always, finding a winner in the 3200m classic is an extremely difficult task.

Form obviously has to be taken into account, but for many punters, particularly those who only bet once a year, lots of other factors and variables come into the equation.

They include the barrier draw, the saddlecloth number, the sex, age and weight of a horse, and for those desperate enough, even the colours worn by the jockey.

The strong presence of international horses only adds to the complexity of making the correct choice.

Legendary Irish trainer Willie Mullins is supremely confident in the chances of Vauban and Absurde, believing they are his “best chance” of winning the Cup for the first time.

Former Courier-Mail racing editor Bart Sinclair also likes the look of both of Mullins’ hopes but would have preferred had they had some Australian form on the board.

Absurde hopes to upstage stablemate Vauban in the Melbourne Cup. Picture: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

“You understand that they are very good stayers, but no-one knows how horses travel until they actually race here, so the ones that go straight into the race, like Mullins’ two, it’s hard to know how they have travelled,” Sinclair said.

“Vauban has worked very well so that encourages you, and they’re very good stayers.

“Because they’ve got hurdle form, they’ve gone in a bit lighter at the weights, so that’s a big help, but there have been a lot of international horses that have come out here with similar reputations, and they just don’t adapt to the hard track, if it is a hard track, or coping with the travel.

“They’re coming out of a lot cooler conditions. It’s the heat, as well as the noise from the crowd, that does throw some of the European horses off.”

Recent history suggests Vauban won’t win, with the most recent favourite to have won the Cup being Fiorente in 2013.

“And Fiorente started at $7 so it was wide open race,” Sinclair said.

In fact, only four Cup favourites have finished in the top three since 2006/

So if that convinces punters not to back Vauban, stablemate Absurde, who was rated a $19 shot on Monday, could very well be the wiser choice.

“He’s the best value,” Sinclair said.

“He’s got a great trainer. Mullins has never won a Melbourne Cup but his horses always run well in it, and has a superstar jockey on him in Zac Purton, who will be desperate to ride a Melbourne Cup winner for the first time..”

Sinclair said it was “highly unusual” that Absurde had been gelded since his last run,

“He was over-racing in a couple of his races but they want him to relax and settle,” he said.

Perhaps the other top chance is Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight, an international horse who stayed in Australia after racing in last year’s Melbourne Cup.

“The Caulfield Cup is always a good indicator for the Melbourne Cup,” Sinclair said.