Inside Mail and The Judgement: Expects give their final word on Royal Randwick

Having built a strong record, jockey Winona Costin and Philipsburg can combine for another win at Royal Randwick.

Jockey Winona Costin reunites with the James Ponsonby-trained Philipsburg at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: AAP Image

Winona Costin will reunite with James Ponsonby’s muddie Philipsburg in the Chandon Handicap (2000m) at Royal Randwick and the stats say, she’s a fifty-fifty chance of winning.

Costin was aboard the NZ-bred gelding for his first six starts after arriving at Ponsonby’s property at The Oaks.

She was there for the horse’s maiden win at Moruya, the Class 1 at Albury after that and lastly on March 26 when Philipsburg won an unusually strong Class 3 Handicap at Muswellbrook.

Philipsburg will relish the wet conditions at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

Since then, Philipsburg has won three more times starting with a TAB Highway at Kembla, a Canterbury midweeker and a near last to first win at Rosehill on a Heavy 8.

Philipsburg is a son of Per Incanto whose progeny - many of them favoured by Hong Kong owners and trainers - are more than adept on wet tracks.

On top of that, Philipsburg grandam is a daughter of Sadler’s Wells - a breed-shaper virtually without peer in the modern age and a provider of both stamina and ‘wet track ability’.

For the record, Philipsburg’s jockey Costin is the leading female jockey on the New South Wales standings for the 2021/22 season.

She will have several chances to add to her tally at headquarters on Saturday, including in the TAB Highway aboard another mudlark, Zariz No Water who is unplaced in all eight ‘Good track runs’ but unbeaten on heavy tracks - winning twice.

BEST BARRIERS

The best barrier at Royal Randwick for the last three years (in order of wins)

1100m: 3,4,5,7

1200m: 6,7,1,5

1400m: 2,1,3,5

1600m: 3,4,5,6

2000m: 2,1,4,6

THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

Race 1: Gallant Star $8-$6.50-$5.50-$6-$5 ($700 at $8, $200 at $6.50), Brudenell $11-$9-$8.50-$7.50 ($600 at $11, $250 at $9), Troach $6-$5-$5.50-$4.50-$4.20-$5.50, Luna Volanti $12-$11-$10-$9.50 ($200 at $12, 300 at $9.50)

Race 2: I’ve Bean Tryin $4.60-$4-$3.80-$3.20 ($1,200 at 4.60, $500 at 4)

Race 3: And We Danced $3.60-$3.80-$3.20, Kanazawa $8-$6.50-$7-$6-$5 ($600 at $8, $250 at $6), Riduna $8-$7.50-$6 ($500 at $8)

Race 4: Tinnie Winnie $6-$5.50-$4.80 ($400 at $6)

Race 5: Dr Evil $26-$19 ($11 e/w at $19/$5)

Race 6: Easy Single $3.60-$3.10-$3.20-$2.80-$2.60 ($800 at $3.60, $1,000 at $3.10, $1,000 at $3), Snowzone $11-$12-$9-$8.50-$7.50-$6.50 ($300 at $8.50), Conscript $11-$7-$6.50 ($200 at $11, $200 at $8)

Race 7: 11 – Waihaha Falls $4.60-$3.50-$3.40-$3.30-$3.00-$2.70-$2.60 ($600 at $4.60, $690 at $3.90, $715 at $3.70, $1,000 at $3.30)

Race 8: JoJo Was A Man $8-$8.50-$8-$7-$5.50-$5-$5.50 ($1,000 at $8), Chief Altony $8-$5-$4.60-$4.20-$3.90-$3.40-$3.30 ($960 at $5, $450 at $5, $400 e/w at $4.60/$1.75, $1,000 at $3.90)

Race 9: Siege $4.40-$4.20-$4, Beatrix $26-$19-$18 ($900 at $26), Sunrise Ruby $26-$12 ($570 at $12)

Race 10: Cross Talk $4.60-$4.80-$4.20-$3.80-$3.20 ($400 at $4.80, $500 at $4.20), Per Inaway $11-$8.50, Cyclone Sally $8-$6.50, Ready To Humble $26-$18

Jojo Was A Man (left) has been well supported to win the Listed Winter Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

EARLY QUADDIE

Race 3: 1,5,8,11

Race 4: 2,2,5,6,7

Race 5: 13

Race 6: 1,2,3,10

QUADDIE

Race 7: 6,11

Race 8: 1,2,3,10

Race 9: 1,2

Race 10: 3

PRICE CHECK

I’ve Bean Tryin’ (race two) has been backed from $4.60 into $3.20. He is a son of Spill The Beans, himself a son of Snitzel. Now there are some very good wet-trackers going around at Royal Randwick but none are any better than this Canberra-trained three-year-old who is ‘two for two’ on Heavy 9s and the way that he ploughed through it both times suggests that a 10 might suit him even better. Little aside on his breeding; his fourth dam is Tidal Light whose wins included the NZ Derby and Canterbury Guineas - what a filly she was.

TRIAL POINTERS

Casino Kid (race six) is a son of the one-time Golden Slipper favourite Casino Prince who was known in his day for being able to handle it wet. As for this Jan Bowen trained four-year-old, he has won three times on Soft tracks and has finished runner-up at his only three starts when it was Heavy. He’s quite an admirable racehorse, having won from 1100m up to 1800m and rounded out his latest campaign running fourth here at Royal Randwick over 2400m. Casino Kid resumes over 1100m and is unplaced in all three first-up runs but the way that he won that 1000m trial at home at Muswellbrook with Ashley Morgan up was just too good to ignore.

Love Tap (race eight) is a grey son of one of America’s greatest stallions of the modern era namely the grey Tapit. The Dean Watt owned/syndicated gelding was scheduled to resume at Rosehill Gardens last Saturday but went home without a run after the races were called off. It’s worth noting that there was a bit of confidence in the camp about how he might go. Granted the circumstances are a lot different this week than last - starting with the fact he’s in the Winter Stakes - he is a Group 3 winner (of the Gloaming) and the Heavy track shouldn’t be a problem for the Richard and William Freedman trained galloper.

Love Tap has trialled well ahead of his tilt at the Winter Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

SECTIONAL STARS

Kanazawa (race three) is the fourth foal of one of Sheikh Mohammed’s incalculable ‘bonny mares’ namely Kanzan and has since gone on to become an equally worthy broodmare, leaving the stakes-performers Rainier and Katalin. As for Kanazawa, he seems more likely than not to make the black-type grade. He’s not quite as ‘bad’ as his stablemate Criaderas, but he does give away big starts in his races.

Cadre Du Noir (race four) was foaled in Kentucky but raced in England before coming to Australia. The son of War front raced five times in the UK for a win and three placings. His win was at Newmarket over the mile. Cadre Du Noir has been just as consistent down here as he was in England. Granted, he turned in his worst career performance (12th of 15) at Randwick on June 11 but he was first-up over 1400m which was short of his best and in actual fact, he did a pretty good job to be beaten six and a half from where he drew and he was in the run.

BEST BET

Royalzel (race ten) has won two of his three starts on Heavy tracks, both when he was a two-year-old. The breeding buffs will rightly tell us that it is probably due to the fact that he is in-bred to Snippets’ Lass, the dam of Royalzel’s father, Snitzel. In terms of form, he is resuming of a ‘000’ but they were in high class Group races, which Saturday’s assignment isn’t and wow, what a trial.

NEXT BEST

Nomara (race one) is a Matthew Smith trained filly who stretched a very good filly on debut at Newcastle by the name of Cinderella Days who happens to be a daughter of Coolmore Classic winner Ofcourseican. No wonder then, that three weeks later Nomara went down to Kembla and beat her rivals easily and in the manner of a Saturday class horse - at least. Gets a tick on the Heavy for the second up there at Newcastle. Wide draw is the only little negative on paper at least.

Royalzel will appreciate resuming in easier company that he raced last campaign and has trialled well. Picture: Getty Images

THE JUDGMENT

R8: ATC WINTER STAKES (1400m)

Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “A fine day in Sydney it was on Friday, but Randwick is still expected to be a testing enough surface. Race 8 is the feature, the Listed Winter Stakes, and while the favourite will be awfully hard to catch, I think it sets up well for the John Thompson-trained Jojo Was A Man. He gets a lovely run off the speed, he’s very fit, and with just 53kg he has to be in the finish. Taksu is fit and flying, he’ll likely lead and be hard to run down. Agreeable is up from Melbourne searching for black-type, she loves a Heavy track and is interesting. Grove Ferry will be all the fitter for his first up run, Chief Altony will be closing off hard late.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Really competitive race this with Chief Altony far and away the best backed, from an opening price of $5.50 to the current quote of $3.10 (with deductions). I thought Jojo Was A Man would get the perfect run here and you’re getting nice each-way odds. “

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Oscar Zulu flew from the back last start to run second to Taksu by less than half a length. He gets a 1.5kg weight swing in his favour here and is double the price. There has been a very strong push for Victorian galloper Chief Altony who opened at $6 earlier in the week.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Chief Altony has been a big firmer since Wednesday. We went up $8 and he was one of the first horses backed.”

Verdict: Chief Altony

R9: ATC SCHWEPPES HCP (1100m)

Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “It looks an even race on paper, and I’m giving the Albury filly Sunrise Ruby a great chance. The Kosciuszko auditions are beginning, and this Mitch Beer-trained filly can throw her name right into the mix with a victory here. She likes a wet track, is drawn to get the right run, and she shapes as a great each-way chance. Rubinocchi will be on speed, and with fitness on her side she will be in the picture for a long way. Siege is in great form, the claim for Reece Jones is useful, she will be popular with punters. If Tony Noonan brings Beatrix to Sydney, I’ll be wary, he’s a great placer of horses.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “First appearance on heavy ground for Siege but she looks a mare who’ll continue to rise through the grades. Think deserves favouritism in this and wouldn’t be surprised to see the market gravitate that way if they can make ground. “

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Rubinocchi’s last start win was excellent and he will face similar wet track conditions here. He goes up 1.5kg here for that win but has drawn well and Sam Clipperton has ridden him four times for three wins.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Punters are going a little wide here with good early specking for Beatrix and Sunrise Ruby at each-way odds.”

Verdict: Sunrise Ruby

Sunrise Ruby can put herself into calculations for the Kosciuszko with a forward showing at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

R10: ATC RANVET HCP (1400m)

Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “Cross Talk can take care of business here. Tim Clark will likely take this Tulloch Lodge trained gelding up near the front, rate him perfectly, and send him home a winner. Mick Bell of Jungle Edge fame brings Cyclone Sally to town, and like her illustrious stablemate looks like she loves a wet track. She’ll be up on the speed (might even lead Cross Talk), it’s just if some of her rivals are too classy for her late. Silent Agenda looks over the odds, if they are getting tired late, he’s a great chance to storm over the top.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Another even race to finish the day with converging form lines. Cross Talk accounts for 40 per cent of the hold has been well supported. I think the improver and the value in the race is Blesk, who will improve second up and gets in nicely with the claim for Reece Jones. Getting away from Barrier 1 another tick.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Cross Talk was very brave last start to just miss Jojo Was A Man who has since come out and won again. Will be positive out of the gates and should be fighting out the finish again.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Per Inaway is my tip at the nice price. Comes into this third-up and doesn’t mind the sting out of the track.”

Verdict: Cross Talk

Originally published as Inside Mail and The Judgement: Expects give their final word on Royal Randwick