Final judgment on the big races at Moonee Valley

The Daily Telegraph's racing editor Ray Thomas gets the final say from trainers and bookmakers ahead of Moonee Valley's big races.

Emily Murphy with trainer Murray Baker's stable star It's a Dundeel. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

MOONEE VALLEY

RACE 5: THE VASE (2040m)

John O'Shea (trainer) Savvy Nature: "He did a bit of evens on Saturday then galloped at the Valley on Tuesday. He will have the addition of blinkers and a tongue tie. He got his tongue over the bit on Tuesday."

Anthony Cummings (trainer) Drago: "This horse made his reputation in fast-run races as a two-year-old when he charged to the line but the only time he has been in a fast-run race this spring was first-up when he ran very well.

"Even today the speed in this race is a little quirky but he has finally drawn a barrier, he is at the right trip and Moonee Valley should really suit the horse. I think he can make the necessary improvement to be right in the finish.''

Glenn Munsie (TAB): "Savvy Nature looks the horse to beat as he has form around Derby favourite Complacent. He has easily accounted for Drago at his last two starts and it is hard to see the latter turning the tables.

"Of the Melbourne horses Tips And Beers was very impressive last start and could be on an upward spiral.''

Mark Morrissey (bookie): "Savvy Nature is close to a good thing here, gets the blinkers for the first time and had small excuses last start in the Spring Champion which is the right form reference for what looks a very weak field.

James McDonald can push the button whenever he wants here and will be winning. Drago is well under the odds while Tips And Beers is progressive but will be running for 2nd and can include in the exotics."

Tommy from Campbelltown (punter): "I have a query on the Sydney horses so going with Tips And Beers. Improving rapidly and likes give in track.

Storm Approach is tough and can stay with good form lines. Savvy Nature has been up a while but has class. Pinstripe Lane is a place hope at big odds.

Verdict: Savvy Nature

James McDonald will partner Savvy Nature in the Mitchelton Wines Vase ofer 2040m at Moonee Valley.

RACE 7: MOONEE VALLEY CUP (2500m)

James Cummings (trainer) Precedence: "I would love Precedence to be my first Melbourne Cup runner. He has been a great, old horse for the stable and he's going as well as ever. He won this race in 2010, this is a track where he always performs well.

"We have taken a slightly different path with him this spring, keeping him fresh, but Reg (Fleming, Melbourne stable foreman) said Precedence is just going so well at the moment.

"We are confident he will run a big race and hopefully get into the Melbourne Cup.''

Saab Hasan (trainer) Shoreham: "We're going in confident he will give it a shake. All the groundwork is done and if he goes and wins the Moonee Valley Cup it is a great achievement.

"He's met the prizemoney clause and the distance clause but he requires a penalty to get in (to the Melbourne Cup). If he is not a Cup horse this I guarantee he will be next year.''

Glenn Munsie (TAB): "A lot of horses haven't tasked success for a while. The form around Gotta Take Care is good with Sea Moon winning last start. Interesting move to scratch him from Moonee Valley last night to run here.

"I don't think there is a lot between her rest with no real standouts.''

Mark Morrissey (bookie): "Sneak A Peek is favourite but it's been sometime between drinks and despite having what looks the best form I'm always wary of taking short odds horses that haven't won in a while.

"Mourinho is having a fantastic preparation and does absolutely love Moonee Valley. Gotta Take Care is also racing quite well and does come from the D Weir stable whose horses are generally very fit."

Tommy from Campbelltown (punter): "An ordinary bunch and going with Gotta Take Care. Tough, stays and loves the Valley. Shoreham is a young stayer of promise. Must include.

"Mourinho is gritty and stays well while Sneak a Peak must be a chance off his placing in the Metrop.''

Verdict: Gotta Take Care

Emily Murphy with trainer Murray Baker's stable star It's a Dundeel. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

RACE 10: COX PLATE (2040m)

Gai Waterhouse (trainer) Fiorente: "I think I've got the right jockey and I've got the right horse. I'm delighted with my horse, I couldn't be happier. He's spot on for the race. But it's a very hard race. It's just a matter of how luck pulls our way.''

Murray Baker (trainer) It's A Dundeel: "We were happy with the way he worked at Moonee Valley on Tuesday. He derived good benefit from that gallop and we think he is 100 per cent fit now. There are no excuses if he is beaten.''

Glenn Munsie (TAB): "The value runner is definitely Happy Trails. He won the Turnbull well and it would surprise me if he missed a place. His run in last year's Cox Plate was good and you don't need me to tell you how good the Turnbull Stakes form has turned out to be.

"Fiorente will need luck from his wide barrier as he has developed a bad trait of missing the start but once again his Turnbull run was very good. I'm prepared to risk It's A Dundeel because of his setback and missing the Caulfield run.''

Mark Morrissey (bookie): "Outstanding race and really thought that if not for the small setback It's A Dundeel would be dominant favourite as really think 2000m is his best distance.

"He is still top pick but I see small value in both Long John and Happy Trails who look to get some on pace favours and unless something really pours the pressure on mid-race I believe these horses will fight out the finish."

Tommy from Campbelltown (punter): "Shame this is race 18 on the track and tipping wide runners to be suited. Slight leaning to Puissance de Lune. Love this horse and ready to explode.

Fiorente is a mighty horse but drawn badly. Can't split them in reality. It's a Dundeel is the only other true WFA horse in this so it's a thin race for mine. Long John lacks the experience to compete with these in my book.''

Verdict: It's A Dundeel