Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday
Sydney sprinter Overpass should be too classy for his opposition when he heads to Melbourne for Saturday’s $750,000 Inglis Sprint at The Valley.
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look over Saturday’s Australian Guineas meeting at Flemington.
BEST BET
OVERPASS (Race 5, No.1)
Overpass has a decided class edge on his rivals and is unbeaten on soft ground. There was nothing wrong with his previous straight run and he should be too good.
VALUE BET
EXPRESS PASS (Race 8, No.5)
Express Pass is over the odds for his return to racing at Flemington. His first-up record is solid, he likes soft tracks and races well down the straight.
EARLY QUADDIE
4, 5/2, 6, 7, 9, 10/1, 2, 3, 5, 10/1, 3, 4
$100 flexi for 66 per cent
BIG6
1, 2, 3, 5, 10/1, 3, 4/1/1, 3, 4, 9, 15/1, 4, 5, 7/1, 3, 9, 10
$100 flexi for 8.33 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1
Race 7: 1, 3, 4, 9, 15
Race 8: 1, 4, 5, 7
Race 9: 1, 3, 9, 10
$100 flexi for 125 per cent
RACE 1 (12:35PM): THE AUSTRALIAN CHILDHOOD FOUNDATION PLATE (1100m)
The terrible weather forecast has made doing the form early for Flemington harder with the exact track rating unknown until Saturday. Tough two-year-old race to start a big day’s racing. BOHEMIAN DAISY (9) made a solid debut down the Flemington straight on Oaks Day last November before a break. She trialled well in Sydney last month and her straight track experience will be invaluable. MUMBAI JEWEL (1) finished hard to score in Sydney last start and could go on with it. MILLANE (7) has shown talent at the trials and can perform well on debut. CANNON (5) has trialled soundly.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Bohemian Daisy to win – if you must.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Bohemian Daisy $11 – $8.50.
RACE 2 (1:10PM): LISTED ROY HIGGINS QUALITY (2600m)
Some of these stayers will be on an Adelaide Cup path in the Roy Higgins Quality. TIGERTIGER (5) will be much fitter for his solid effort at his first run for six weeks and meets CRYSTAL PEGASUS (5) much better at the weights, courtesy of a 6.5kg weight drop. CRYSTAL PEGASUS (4) was a strong winner last start and won’t have any trouble with the extra trip. SALTO ANGEL (7) is consistent and should be around the mark again at Flemington. GOOD IDEA (2) can improve on his last two runs.
SUGGESTED BET: Tigertiger to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Playoffs $9.50 – $8.
RACE 3 (1:45PM): THE RESIMAX GROUP PLATE (1200m)
Difficult straight race but RAINBIEL (6) is a talented mare that excels first-up and loves the 1200m trip. She’ll go forward and wet ground won’t worry her too much. ROSE QUARTZ (9) is flying and can be prominent in this harder race. EVENING GLORY (10) is also an acceptor for Friday night’s meeting but will run well in either race. BERMADEZ (7) will be better over further but he’ll competitive in this open affair.
SUGGESTED BET: Rainbiel each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Rose Quartz $2.60 – $2.40.
RACE 4 (2:20PM): GROUP 3 FURPHY FRANCES TRESSADY STAKES (1400m)
SIRILEO MISS (3) impressed with her significant improvement last time in where she became a Group 3 winner. She’s drawn a touch awkwardly but can resume with a win at Flemington. ANNAVISTO (5) is a classy mare than will be on the speed throughout. MARACANA (10) resumes after a promising maiden campaign and will enjoy the wet ground. QUANTUM MECHANIC (1) is always a threat in this type of race.
SUGGESTED BET: Sirileo Miss to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Excelida $15 – $9.
RACE 5 (3PM): INGLIS SPRINT (1200m)
OVERPASS (1) is the class runner of this race with a handicap rating 13 points clear of his nearest rival in this race. He beat subsequent Group 1 winner Forbidden Love in the Expressway Stakes first-up and was far from disgraced behind Lost And Running last start. This is much easier. DAILY BUGLE (3) is a talented colt that should run on well late while SNEAKY FIVE (4) is a classy filly that flies fresh. LORD PARAMOUNT (8) is racing well and is one for the exotics.
SUGGESTED BET: Overpass to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Overpass $2.80 – $2.30.
RACE 6 (3:40PM): GROUP 2 TAB BLAMEY STAKES (1600m)
ZAAKI (1) heads to Melbourne for a race on a damp Flemington track instead of the quagmire in Sydney. He’s in the conversation as the best weight-for-age horse in Australia and should be too good fresh. PONDUS (9) is better known for his efforts over further but he’s capable of producing a surprise effort fresh. MR BRIGHTSIDE (5) resumed with a solid effort at Flemington last start and CORNER POCKET (6) steps up in class but will be competitive.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 5, 6, 9.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Zaaki $2.50 – $2.10.
RACE 7 (4:20PM): GROUP 1 AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS (1600m)
An even edition of the Australian Guineas but FORGOT YOU (4) is narrowly the top pick after an excellent first-up effort in the CS Hayes Stakes and a soft track wouldn’t worry him. HITOTSU (1) will resume but is all class and should be respected fresh. PROFONDO (3) is an outstanding three-year-old that can justify the late entry fee with a big performance. PINSTRIPED (9) is unbeaten and facing his hardest test but he can measure up. CAPTIVANT (2) doesn’t want it too wet but has the quality to win.
SUGGESTED BET: Forgot You each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Captivant $9 – $7.
RACE 8: 5:00PM LISTED ATA/BOB HOYSTED HANDICAP (1000m)
This is the toughest race of the day but EXPRESS PASS (5) has the ability to spring a minor upset. His first-up form is solid and he always races well down the straight while there looks to be enough speed on for him. MILEVA (7) hasn’t raced for six weeks but she races best over this trip and likes the straight. TREKKING (1) has plenty of weight but also has trialled well. MALKOVICH (4) was far from disgraced in the Oakleigh Plate and will find this more to his liking.
SUGGESTED BET: Express Pass each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sword Of Mercy $10 – $8.
RACE 9: 5:35PM THE SCHWEPPES PLATE (1600m)
Tricky finish with several smart types engaged but YONCE (10) was dominant when charging home from the back of the field at Flemington last start. She’s on her way to harder races and can stay unbeaten. NICOLINI VITO (3) is flying and the form around him continues to stand up. RIPPER RITA (9) was solid first-up and will be fitter. GENTLEMAN ROY (1) is flying and should be hard to beat again.
SUGGESTED BET: Yonce to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Yonce $3.50 – $3.10.
SOFT TRACK LIKELY FOR FLEMINGTON
Flemington track manager Liam O’Keeffe says current forecasts indicate a heavy track is only an outside chance for Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Guineas meeting.
The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted up to 30mm of rain for Melbourne in the early hours of Saturday morning before showers persist in the afternoon.
O’Keeffe said such falls would push the Flemington track well into the soft range for Australian Guineas Day.
“We’re expecting 25 to 35mm starting at about midnight on Friday,” O’Keeffe said.
“The Bureau (of Meteorology) thinks the bulk of it should move through by about eight or nine in the morning before showerscontinue.
“They thought there would be less than 5mm in the showers through the day.
“Using the crystal ball, if we got 25mm then got showers, we’d be looking at a Soft 6 or maybe a Soft 7.”
“If the rain stops during the raceday, it can improve but if they continue, it would probably hold around that rating.
“A lot depends on how much we get in the morning and how much rain there is during the raceday as to the rating for the meeting.”
O’Keeffe said a crew of track staff would spend Friday night at the course in case the forecast changes and worse than expectedconditions materialise.
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Flemington and Randwick.
BEST BET: OVERPASS (Flemington, R5 No.1)
VALUE BET: CAPTIVANT (Flemington, R7 No.2)
LAY OF THE WEEK: MAZU (Randwick, R6 No.3)
INGLIS SPRINT (1200m)
Flemington, R5, 3pm
Overpass comes to Melbourne and shapes as one of the better bets on the Flemington program.
The Bjorn Baker-trained galloper resumed from a spell with a strong win in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes before finishing second to rising sprint star Lost And Running.
Happy to be with him at around $2.70.
The Chris Waller-trained Able Willie has been the early market mover from $5 into $4.20.
The danger for mine at longer odds is the undefeated Shadow Devil, who is worth a saver.
THE TIP: OVERPASS win.
TAB BLAMEY STAKES (1600m)
Flemington, R6, 3.40pm
Zaaki kicks off his campaign and punters anticipate that he will return with a win, backed from $2.50 into $2.10.
The Annabel Neasham-trained galloper has been a revelation since relocating to Australia and comes into this having won six of his past seven starts.
We last saw him in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes when he led comfortably and recorded a 1¼-length win and happy to be with him again.
The money came for Mr Brightside in pre-post betting, $5 into $3.50, but is now back out to $4.20.
He resumed from a spell with third behind Corner Pocket at Flemington but the big positive is the step up to 1600m, a distance where he has won five times from six attempts.
Mr Brightside has been a big firmer in pre-post betting for the All-Star Mile backed from $26 into $9.
If you are chasing a longshot for the exotics for the multiples King Magnus has trimmed up from $34 into $31.
THE TIP: ZAAKI win
AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS (1600m)
Flemington, R7, 4.20pm
A brilliant edition of the Australian Guineas with Profondo now heading the market at $4.20.
The Richard Litt-trained runner won the Group 1 Champion Stakes at just his third career start.
Hitotsu was a long-time pre-post favourite and is now a $4.80 second elect.
The Victoria Derby winner comes into this first-up but has caught the eye with two impressive trials.
I am siding with Captivant each-way at $9 the win and $3 the place.
Captivant was runner-up behind star three-year-old Anamoe in the Caufield Guineas and hit the line strongly last start behind Pinstriped.
He has a nice draw and Jamie Kah in the saddle.
The Enver Jusufovic-trained Pinstripped has looked above average in three career starts and defied a betting drift to win well last start and is another with leading claims.
THE TIP: CAPTIVANT each-way.
RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600m)
Randwick, R8, 4.40pm
It appears Anamoe simply has to handle the heavy ground to win the Randwick Guineas.
The Caulfield Guineas winner returned to the winners’ list with a gutsy win in the Hobartville Stakes and should appreciate the step up to 1600m.
He is currently $2 but I would advise backing him on raceday as the race has the potential to be affected by scratchings and, therefore, deductions
Converge was third to Anamoe last start and shapes as the logical danger.
THE TIP: ANAMOE win.
Originally published as Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday
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