Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday
High-class import Zaaki can bounce back in the All-Star Mile while a $34 chance is worth an each-way bet at Flemington on Saturday.
Herald-Sun form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over Saturday’s All-Star Mile card at Flemington.
BEST BET
ZAAKI (Race 6, No.2)
Zaaki was run down late in the Blamey Stakes first-up but will be much fitter for the All-Star Mile. Jamie Kah can overcome the wide gate on the classy performer.
VALUE BET
DON’T DOUBT DORY (Race 7, No.6)
Don’t Doubt Dory won well first-up last time in and has a good record at 1600m. He’s drawn perfectly and looks over the odds in an even race.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 3, 6, 9/1,/1, 4, 5, 6/3, 8, 9, 13, 15
$100 flexi for 100 per cent
BIG6
1, 4, 5, 6/3, 8, 9, 13, 15/1, 2, 3, 9/1, 6, 9, 10/1, 3/11, 13, 15
$100 flexi for 19.2 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 2, 3, 9
Race 7: 1, 6, 9, 10
Race 8: 1, 3
Race 9: 11, 13, 15
$100 flexi for 104 per cent
RACE 1 (12:25PM): KENNEDY GRAND HANDICAP CLASSIC (2500m)
One of several tricky races on the All-Star Mile card. Going with OH SO FAR (8) to handle the step up in class after a luckless midweek outing at Sandown. SIGN SEAL DELIVER (2) was narrowly beaten at Cranbourne last time out and will be fitter again. UNIQUELY (6) is flying on her home track at Ballarat and looks ready for this trip. FRENCH MOON (2) is racing well and should be respected as should the top weight THROUGH IRISH EYES (1)
SUGGESTED BET: Small win bet Oh So Far.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Through Irish Eyes $7 – $4.80
RACE 2 (1:05PM): VOBIS GOLD COMET (1000m)
The speedsters will charge down the Flemington straight in the second. EXPRESS PASS (1) made an excellent return in Listed company last time out and has a strong second-up record. LOMBARDO (3) races well first-up and won well at Listed level in the spring. KING OF HASTINGS (2) is an honest sprinter that could threaten first-up while GRANDVIEW AVENUE (6) enjoys the 1000m and is hard-fit for this assignment.
SUGGESTED BET: Express Pass to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sword Of Mercy $8 – $6
RACE 3 (1:40PM): THE G.H. MUMM MYSTIC JOURNEY (2000m)
YONCE (1) has met every challenge thrown her way and posted her most impressive win on this track last time out. Her pedigree says the 2000m won’t worry her and she’s in beautifully at the weights. UNIQUE ARTIST (2) will be better suited back over the Flemington 2000m where she has produced her most impressive performances to date. NERVE NOT VERVE (3) was a fighting winner at The Valley last time out and is proven at the trip. ANGEL ROCK (5) chased well at The Valley and should again be thereabouts.
SUGGESTED BET: Yonce to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: No movements of note.
RACE 4 (2:20PM): VOBIS GOLD REEF (1600m)
One of the harder races on the card but happy to back CHATEAU NUE (8) after his solid on-pace effort at Sandown at only his second start. POUNDING (4) hit the line hard for a deserved win at Sandown last time and has drawn barrier one. PALANI (5) enjoyed the soft ground to win at Ballarat but could measure up to this. TEEWATERS (4) was placed in the Victoria Derby so has the class to show up fresh here.
SUGGESTED BET: Chateau Nue to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Daily Bugle $11 – $7.50.
RACE 5 (2:55PM): FURPHY COUNTRY SERIES FINAL (1600m)
Probably the toughest race of the All-Star Mile card but have VASMEE (8) on top after his dominant frontrunning win at Pakenham at his last run. BELLA TIARA (9) ran on from the back to win her heat of the series but could race closer from the better draw. MARK OF THE MAN (15) also comes out of the Ararat heat and has performed well at his last two runs. INVINCIBLE BAY (13) drops 5.5kg on his solid second at Pakenham and should run well.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Vasmee to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Vasmee $6 – $4
RACE 6 (3:40PM): THE SEPPELT WINES ALL-STAR MILE (1600m)
ZAAKI (2) turned in a terrific first-up run after a late change of plans to tackle 1600m first-up in the Blamey Stakes. He’ll be much harder to beat with extra fitness irrespective of the wide barrier. CASCADIAN (3) was OK over 2000m last Saturday but drops back to his favourite distance for this and could improve significantly. ICEBATH (9) was narrowly beaten in the Cantala Stakes and will be finishing hard. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (1) looked in need of 1600m at Caulfield second-up and the bigger Flemington track should suit.
SUGGESTED BET: Zaaki to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Pinstriped $8 – $6
RACE 7 (4:20PM): THE MUGATOO (1600M)
DON’T DOUBT DORY (6) could produce a blowout result in an even race here. His first-up record is terrific and he races best over 1600m while he finished well for second in a Cranbourne 1400m jumpout leading up to this. He might be over the odds. GENTLEMAN ROY (10) was solid again behind Yonce last start and should give a good sight on the speed. BERMADEZ (9) won well first-up and could go on with it over this longer trip. NUMERIAN (1) wasn’t far away first-up in Sydney in the spring and could find this a shade easier.
SUGGESTED BET: Don’t Doubt Dory each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Gentleman Roy $4.60 – $3.40
RACE 8 (5PM): THE SEPPELT WINES REGAL POWER (2000m)
Happy to back DEFIBRILLATE (1) to win again after his impressive first-up effort at Caulfield. He’ll only be improved for that run and boasts excellent 2nd-up and Flemington records. DARK DREAM (3) tackles this race fresh after a sound effort at Caulfield last month. He’ll be around the mark if there’s enough speed on. DESERT ICON (8) was no match for Defibrillate at Caulfield but impressed with his win two starts back. PONDUS (4) will be much fitter for his first-up effort.
SUGGESTED BET: Defibrillate to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Defibrillate $11 – $7
RACE 9 (5:40PM): TAB SPRINT (1200m)
Tough race to finish All-Star Mile day but LA VINA (11) could provide a bit of each-way value for punters. She’s a first-up specialist that races well over this trip and she easily won a Colac trial. GRINZINGER PRINCE (15) is a horse on the up and impressed winning at Pakenham last month. ZAC DE BOSS (9) was a strong winner at Sandown last month and is worth including here. MOEEN (13) is another resuming mare that is an each-way chance.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Ashford Street $11 – $7
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Flemington and Rosehill.
BEST BET: Anamoe (Rosehill, R6 No.1)
VALUE BET: Away Game (Rosehill, R9 No.6)
LAY OF THE WEEK: Le Lude (Rosehill, R4, No.1)
ALL-STAR MILE (1600m)
Flemington, R6, 3.40pm
The fourth running of the All-Star Mile, and despite the wide draw the Annabel Neasham-trained Zaaki is a deserving $3.40 favourite.
He has won six of his past eight starts and ticked every box resuming in the Blamey Stakes when nabbed on the post by Inspirational Girl. Stepping up in trip and with a monumental weight swing on Inspirational Girl, he can switch the result.
There has been money for Pinstriped, from $8 into $6. The Enver Jusufovic galloper had no luck in the Australian Guineas.
I’m Thunderstruck was an alarming betting drifter in the Futurity and ran accordingly; if he can recapture his best form he can measure up, although gate one is a challenge.
There has been specking for Sierra Sue from $26 into $21, but her record over 1600m is poor with just one placing from five attempts.
THE TIP: ZAAKI win
RANVET STAKES (GROUP 1, 2000m)
Rosehill R5, 2.40pm
Verry Elleegant claimed her 11th Group 1 victory with a typically brave performance in the Chipping Norton Stakes a fortnight ago and looks to have a mortgage on the Ranvet.
She loves Rosehill having had five starts at the track for four wins and a second to Addeybb in the 2020 edition of this race and dominates the market at $1.35.
Montefilia is second elect and looks a logical quinella.
THE TIP: Anchor VERRY ELLEEGANT in multis
GEORGE RYDER STAKES (GROUP 1, 1500m)
Rosehill, R7, 4pm
Mo’unga caught the eye when runner-up to Sierra Sue in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and has been backed from $4.80 into $4.20.
Mo’unga has won five of his 15 starts and deserves to be favourite. Forbidden Love has relished heavy ground at her past two starts, but while her form on top of the ground is not as strong, she shapes as a leading chance.
Provided he contests this race and not the Guineas, I am sticking with Converge. He won the Randwick Guineas last start holding off Anamoe.
At longer odds Hilal is a place chance.
THE TIP: MO’UNGA win
GOLDEN SLIPPER (GROUP 1, 1200m)
Rosehill, R8, 4.45pm
Magic Millions winner Coolangatta is the one to beat. She could not have been any more impressive winning a recent jumpout.
Gary Portelli’s Fireburn Fireburn has won three in a row and held off the fast finishing She’s Extreme in the Sweet Embrace. They look over the odds.
THE TIP: FIREBURN and SHE’S EXTREME each-way
Originally published as Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday
‘I want more Group 1s’: Collett hungry for bigger wins after breakout year
Quiet achieving jockey Jason Collett has laid the platform for a big spring following his best-ever season in Sydney, and he won’t be content with just riding winners.
Hayes brothers aim to challenge Maher for metro title
The Hayes brothers were the leading trainers in the state last season but want to give Ciaron Maher a run for his money in the metro premiership when the new season begins this weekend.
Coffs Harbour, Kembla Friday tips: $6 best bet
Form analyst Shayne O’Cass provides his best bets and race-by-race analysis for Coffs Harbour and best bets for Kembla Grange on Friday.