Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Caulfield on Saturday
It’s no surprise punters have latched on to Caulfield lover Open Minded in early betting for this Saturday’s meeting.
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s big CF Orr Stakes meeting at Caulfield. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.
BEST BET
OPEN MINDED (Race 6, No.7)
Racing in outstanding form with impressive wins at Caulfield at his last two runs. Query at 1600m but he’s likely to get a soft lead and should be hard to run down again.
VALUE BET
ASFOORA (Race 5, No.9)
Asfoora has easily disposed of her opposition in her first three runs. She steps up to stakes class for the first time on Saturday and could measure up.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 3, 6, 7/1, 2, 3, 4, 5/1, 3, 5, 9, 12/2, 4, 6, 9
$100 flexi for 20 per cent
BIG6
1, 3, 5, 9, 12/2, 4, 6, 9/1, 6/1, 2, 3, 4/1, 3, 7, 8, 11/1
$100 flexi for 12.5 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 5, 6, 8
Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 4
Race 8: 1, 3, 7, 8, 11
Race 9: 1
$100 flexi for 125 per cent
RACE 1 (12:40PM): THE BIG SCREEN COMPANY HANDICAP (1400m)
Tricky field to start the Caulfield meeting but happy to have a small bet on FUNDRAISER (3) to start the day after two excellent runs to start his campaign. IN THE BOAT (2) is on trial over 1400m but his form is terrific, and he rates as the main danger to the top pick. PAPERBOY (8) steps up in class but his last two runs at Caulfield have been excellent. BEEHUNTER (6) got the money second-up at Pakenham and has a sound record over this trip.
SUGGESTED BET: Small win bet Fundraiser
TAB MARKET MOVER: In The Boat $2.70 – $2.25.
RACE 2 (1:15PM): Group 2 AUTUMN STAKES (1400m)
The Chris Waller-trained COASTWATCH (1) brings outstanding Sydney spring form to his first-up assignment where he is beautifully in at the weights. SHARP RESPONSE (2) has gone well in easier races at his first two runs this time in and will be fitter again. DECENT RAINE (7) is consistent and again won’t be far away here. MAHREZ (6) ran on well first-up at Pakenham and will be better for that outing.
SUGGESTED BET: Coastwatch to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Decent Raine $4.60 – $3.40.
RACE 3 (1:50PM): GROUP 3 BLUE DIAMOND PRELUDE (C&G) (1100m)
The two-year-old season gets a bit more serious with the Blue Diamond Preludes. COUNTTHEHEADLIGHTS (4) was impressive running good time on The Valley on debut and should get every chance. JACQUINOT (5) looked awesome winning on debut on Boxing Day and must be respected in this harder assignment. PHILOSOPHER (3) was sound in the Blue Diamond Preview and is better off at level weights here. DAUMIER (2) is a professional colt that should run well again.
SUGGESTED BET: Counttheheadlights to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Semillion $7.50 – $4.80.
RACE 4 (2:25PM): GROUP 2 BLUE DIAMOND PRELUDE (FILLIES) (1100m)
A much bigger field will tackle the fillies’ Prelude. LATIZIA (3) has drawn wide, but she has shown plenty of talent and might be looking for this trip now after her last start third over 1000m. MISS ROSEIANO (1) raced on the speed and held on first-up and could do so again. SUMATRA (9) was solid at The Valley on debut and expecting her to charge home late. BONHEUR (12) was outsprinted over the 1000m on debut but should find the 1100m more to her liking.
SUGGESTED BET: Latizia each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: English Riviera $6 – $5.
RACE 5 (3:05PM): GROUP 3 KEVIN HAYES STAKES (1200m)
ASFOORA (9) faces her toughest test to date in the Kevin Hayes Stakes but there has been plenty to like about the way she has handled her rivals in her three wins. She could measure up to stakes class at odds. MALLORY (2) was solid in harder races during the spring and has trialled well. SCORCHED EARTH (6) is flying this time in and should again be competitive. HERESY (4) was thereabouts in good races in Melbourne in the spring and races well at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: Asfoora each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Argentia $10 – $8.
RACE 6 (3:45PM): GROUP 3 TS CARLYON CUP (1600m)
OPEN MINDED (6) can keep his unbeaten Caulfield record intact with a win over 1600m here. He has rolled along in front and won well at his last couple of runs and could get a soft trip in the lead with all his rivals returning from spells. EARLSWOOD (5) showed a neat turn of foot in a couple of his Irish wins and could be over the odds. CALLSIGN MAV (1) is a Group 1 winner in New Zealand that has the quality to race well fresh. SURPRISE BABY (7) will be running on well late.
SUGGESTED BET: Open Minded to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Open Minded $3.70 – $3.
RACE 7 (4:25PM): GROUP 2 RUBITON STAKES (1100m)
Tricky edition of the Rubiton Stakes but MILEVA (3) should go well again after two solid efforts to start her summer campaign and she was a stakes winner over this course in the spring. ARTORIUS (2) is a quality colt and should be around the mark first-up. OXLEY ROAD (1) has a terrific record at Caulfield and won a Group 2 race over this course in the spring. INGRATIATING (4) is a smart three-year-old that should be competitive against older horses fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Mileva to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Artorius $4.40 – $4.20.
RACE 8 (5:05PM): GROUP 1 CF ORR STAKES (1400m)
LIGHTHOUSE (11) suffered her first Australian defeat last start at Caulfield, but she can bounce back from the perfect draw in the CF Orr Stakes. She’ll race closer and should be harder hold out this time with her significant fitness advantage. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (1) is a budding star that will be finishing hard at the end of the 1400m. TOFANE (8) is always thereabouts in this type of race and won’t be far away again. SINAWANN (7) closed well behind Marabi in the Australia Stakes and the jump to 1400m will suit him.
SUGGESTED BET: Lighthouse each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sinawann $5 – $4.
RACE 9 (5:40PM): GROUP 3 GEOFFREY BELLMAINE STAKES (1200m)
PROBABEEL (1) will start as a deserved short-priced favourite. She won the Cockram Stakes over 1200m first-up last time in and is well in at the weights again. She’ll be too classy for her rivals. FLYING MASCOT (3) will probably find the 1200m a shade short but she’ll be competitive fresh. KAHMA LASS (4) is a talented stablemate of Probabeel that has won at Caulfield. RAINBIEL (5) has plenty of speed and should be in this for a long way.
SUGGESTED BET: Probabeel to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Probabeel $2.20 – $1.95.
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Caulfield and Randwick.
BEST BET: In The Boat (Caulfield, R1 No.2)
VALUE BET: Behemoth (Caulfield, R8 No.3)
LAY OF THE WEEK: Yiyi (Randwick, R5 No.2)
RUBITON STAKES (1100M)
Caulfield, R7, 4.25pm
Last year’s Blue Diamond winner Artorius kicks off his campaign and is a soft market leader.
He ran some terrific races in the spring without winning but had bad luck along the way, some of it was his doing with his racing pattern and quirks and some was circumstantial.
Artorius clearly has talent, and should he put it together for a preparation he could propel up the sprinting ranks.
The money has come during the week for the Peter Moody-trained Oxley Road.
He was backed from $8 into $5 in the pre-post market and the money has continued since the final field was declared backed into $4.80.
He was awful up the Flemington straight on the final day of the Flemington carnival but races much better around a bend and was dominant winning the Caulfield Sprint.
He will be closer in the run than some of his market rivals and looks a good each-way play.
THE TIP: Oxley Road each-way
CF ORR STAKES (1400M)
Caulfield, R8, 5.05pm
A terrific edition of this Group 1 race with punters warming to Sinawann.
The former import caught the eye with a fast-finishing second to Marabi in the Group 2 Australia Stakes and looks set for a big campaign.
I’m Thunderstruck has been a darling to readers of this column and I feel dirty tipping against him here.
He just seems too short in the market and will be worth sticking with once he has a run under the belt.
Behemoth was beaten at $1.40 when resuming in Adelaide but should take big improvement from that run and he won the Group 1 Memsie Stakes over this trip in the spring at Caulfield.
He will get a lovely run in transit and is an each-way chance at $6.
THE TIP: BEHEMOTH each-way
LIGHT FINGERS STAKES (1200M)
Randwick, R7, 4.05pm
All eyes will be on the rising star of Australian racing Espiona as she commences what is anticipated to be a big campaign.
She won at Warwick Farm on debut by over three lengths, but it was her second victory at Flemington on Oaks Day that caught the eye of racing fans across the nation as she strolled to a 6½-length win.
She is no spoil at $1.55 but hopefully can maintain her unbeaten record.
Stablemate Fangirl was also super impressive winning at Flemington over the feature week by claiming the first race on Derby Day.
I think Fangirl might be slightly more suited over more ground but can again measure up.
There has been early support for the Robert and Luke Price-trained Jamaea, who has been backed from $15 into $9.50.
She caused an upset in the spring with a strong win in the Group 2 Furious Stakes.
THE TIP: Anchor ESPIONA in multis
APOLLO STAKES (1400M)
Randwick, R8, 4.45pm
Melbourne Cup winner Verry Elleegant opened a $3.50 early favourite for Saturday’s Apollo Stakes.
She has subsequently eased to $5 and I expect her to start longer on race day.
Verry Elleegant ran third in the race last year as a $2.50 favourite which was won by Colette, and was fourth in 2020 behind Alizee.
Verry Elleegant is a superstar and can win on Saturday, but with bigger targets in store and better suited over more ground I don’t expect her to win here first-up.
Defending champion Colette was $8 on Monday, eased to $9 and was backed into $7 heading into final field.
She is now back out to $9.
Any rain would assist her chances, and like Verry Elleegant she will be better over more ground.
The runner I am leaning to is the market mover Think it Over.
The Kerry Parker-trained galloper firmed from $4.50 into $3.50 in the pre-post market and is now $4.20.
He has a good first-up record with three wins and two seconds from seven attempts and unlike most of his main market rivals will be up on speed.
THE TIP: THINK IT OVER win, save on COLETTE
Originally published as Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Caulfield on Saturday
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