Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Caulfield on Saturday
Callsign Mav can go one better than his narrow first-up second while the Blue Diamond Stakes trophy could be heading back to Sydney after Saturday’s Caulfield meeting.
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters has an early look at Saturday’s Blue Diamond Stakes meeting at Caulfield.
BEST BET
CALLSIGN MAV (Race 5, No.5)
Fought on well when narrowly beaten first-up and will only be fitter for that. He’ll roll forward and in a race of little speed and should be hard to run down.
VALUE BET
FORBIDDEN CITY (Race 4, No.10)
Raced on the speed and disposed of her rivals with ease first-up. It’s a big ask to step straight into stakes company but she’s a filly with a bright future.
EARLY QUADDIE
2/1, 2, 3, 4, 14/1, 2, 4, 7, 10/1, 5
$100 flexi for 200 per cent
BIG6
1, 2, 4, 7, 10/1, 5/1, 3, 4, 6/2, 4, 6, 11, 12, 14 /1, 2, 5, 9/1, 5
$100 flexi for 5.2 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 3, 4, 6
Race 7: 2, 4, 6, 11, 12, 14
Race 8: 1, 2, 5, 9
Race 9: 1, 5
$100 flexi for 52.08 per cent
RACE 1 (12:40PM): GROUP 3 ZEDITAVE STAKES (1200m)
A small field to start the day but the speed should be OK. GENERATION (2) was a solid first-up winner in the Manfred Stakes and can win again with Jamie Kah aboard. MARS MISSION (5) steps up in class but was impressive winning at The Valley. FINANCE TYCOON (1) chased home Pinstriped first-up and will be fitter. ALONG THE RIVER (4) is honest and should run well again.
SUGGESTED BET: Generation to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Generation $2.30 – $2.25.
RACE 2 (1:15PM): GROUP 3 MANNERISM STAKES (1400m)
Not much speed in this race, which will make the favourite FLYING MASCOT (2) even harder to beat as she can roll forward and either lead or race handy to the pace. GALGANI (6) could lead and battle on honestly in her usual fashion. BOUND TO WIN (7) is up in class but should get every chance from barrier two. UNDER MY SPELL (5) is consistent and won’t be far away.
SUGGESTED BET: Flying Mascot to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Rich Hips $8.50 – $5.
RACE 3 (1:50PM): GROUP 2 AUTUMN CLASSIC (1800m)
Tricky race with a likely slow speed to complicate matters. CASTLEREAGH KID (3) should lead and there was a lot to like about the way he relished the contest at Sandown before scoring again. He’s up in class but has a great racing style. LUCKY DECISION (1) wasn’t far away at this level last time and should handle the 1800m. EL PATRONESS (14) was solid in similar races last time in and should threaten at some stage. ATTRACTABLE (2) was a good winner over 1600m last time and should see out the 1800m well.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Castlereagh Kid.
TAB MARKET MOVER: El Patroness $4.80 – $4.20.
RACE 4 (2:25PM): GROUP 2 ANGUS ARMANASCO STAKES (1400m)
This race might be trickier than it looks on paper as it will probably be run at a slowish speed. It will be interesting to see if FORBIDDEN CITY (10) can make the big jump from maiden to stakes class, but she was an outstanding winner at Sandown and will race handy to the speed. ARGENTIA (4) was a terrific winner first-up and will be charging late if she gets a clear run from barrier one. BON’S A PEARLA (2) did a good job first-up and won a Group 2 race over this course in the spring. The Thousand Guineas winner YEARNING (1) resumes here and has the class to show up fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Forbidden City each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Argentia $2.40 – $2.10
RACE 5 (3:05PM) GROUP 2 PETER YOUNG STAKES (1800m)
Happy to back CALLSIGN MAV (5) here after his fighting second when resuming in the Carlyon Cup over 1600m. He’ll roll forward in a race that doesn’t look to have too much speed in it and could be harder to get past this time. CASCADIAN (1) is probably the only danger to the top pick after his good first-up third in the CF Orr Stakes. YONKERS (4) ran on steadily first-up and races well at Caulfield. WENTWOOD (6) progressed to Group 3 level last time in and could place fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Callsign Mav to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Callsign Mav $3.80 – $3.60
RACE 6 (3:45PM): GROUP 1 FUTURITY STAKES (1400m)
Very even edition of the Futurity Stakes, which offers an All-Star Mile wildcard to the winner. TOFANE (4) led throughout to win the CF Orr Stakes first-up and should be hard to beat again, especially as she looks to get a softer run behind the leaders. TURAATH (6) is a 1400m specialist that will probably lead and could be tough to run down. MO’UNGA (3) is a quality Sydney galloper that must be respected. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (1) needed the run in the CF Orr Stakes and will be fitter for that.
SUGGESTED BET: Tofane to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Tofane $2.80 – $2.60
RACE 7 (4:25PM): GROUP 1 BLUE DIAMOND STAKES (1200m)
This looks one of the toughest Blue Diamonds for punters in a few years with any number of chances engaged. REVOLUTIONARY MISS (11) raced like the 1200m would be perfect when charging home to win the fillies’ Prelude last start and the Snowden stable knows how to develop a Blue Diamond winner. MISS ROSEIANO (12) was close-up behind Revolutionary Miss last start and there won’t be much between them again. LOFTY STRIKE (2) finished well to win the colts and geldings’ Prelude and should be doing his best work late. SEBONACK (4) was a comfortable debut winner and could measure up. Chances also to JACQUINOT (6) and ENGLISH RIVIERA (14)
SUGGESTED BET: Revolutionary Miss to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Revolutionary Miss $8 – $6.
RACE 8 (5:05PM): GROUP 1 OAKLEIGH PLATE (1100m)
MARABI (5) gets her first crack at Group 1 level in the Oakleigh Plate after comfortably winning in Group 2 company at The Valley. She’s drawn well and looks up to this level but is short enough at $2.40. ZOUTORI (2) has run cracking races in the last two Oakleigh Plates and carries the same weight as last year despite winning a Newmarket Handicap since. MINHAAJ (9) has thrived since joining the John O’Shea camp and has trialled well in Sydney. WILD RULER (1) is a Group 1 winner at weight-for-age so has the quality to show up fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Marabi with a saver on Zoutori.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Marabi $2.80 – $2.40.
RACE 9 (5:40PM): LISTED MORNINGTON CUP PRELUDE (2000m)
DESERT ICON (5) is the short-priced way to get out of the Caulfield meeting on a winning note. He was dominant at Caulfield last time out and his 2000m record is excellent. DEFIBRILLATE (1) is the big query runner. He has won first-up, his record at Caulfield and over 2000m is strong and he easily won a trial leading up to this. Watch the betting closely on him. ZIEGFELD (3) hasn’t won for a while but his two runs this time in have been sound. PANCHO (4) could be ready to show more after three runs this time in.
SUGGESTED BET: Desert Icon to win with a small bet on Defibrillate.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Desert Icon $2.50 – $2.20
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Caulfield and Randwick.
BEST BET: DESERT ICON (Caulfield, R9 No.5)
VALUE BET: ENGLISH RIVIERA (Caulfield, R7 No.14)
LAY OF THE WEEK: DELEXO (Randwick, R2 No.1)
FUTURITY STAKES (1400m)
Caulfield, R6, 3.45pm
I’m Thunderstruck enjoyed a brilliant spring which included victories in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and the $7.5m Golden Eagle.
I am surprised I’m Thunderstruck isn’t favourite and he is the one to beat.
He ticked every box when resuming in the CF Orr Stakes and happy to be with him at the $3.50 on offer to salute second-up.
Tofane was outstanding once again when winning the Orr, she is worth a saver again here but I expect she will ease from her current $2.70 quote.
If you are chasing one at longer odds for the trifecta or first four, I anticipate Extreme Flight will run well second-up.
THE TIP: I’M THUNDERSTRUCK win.
BLUE DIAMOND STAKES (1200m)
Caulfield, R7, 4.25pm
An even edition of the Blue Diamond and I am sticking with English Riviera at double-figure odds to break her maiden on the big stage.
The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained filly was heavily backed on debut at Flemington and raced greenly to finish second behind Lofty Strike.
She then showed better race manners at her second start when up on speed and sticking on well for third.
From a nice draw and with John Allen in the saddle, happy to be with her at $19 the win and $5 the place.
Since the barrier draw the money has come for Jacquinot, who won brilliantly on debut at Caulfield before making a meal of the start last time and effectively blowing his winning chances behind Lofty Strike.
Jacquinot has been backed from $6 into $5 and did get as low as $4.40 since the draw.
Lofty Strike has done everything right in his two starts winning on both occasions.
The Julius Sandhu-trained runner is again a leading chance at $6.
THE TIP: ENGLISH RIVIERA each-way.
OAKLEIGH PLATE (1100m)
Caulfield, R8, 5.05pm
Rising sprinting star Marabi steps up to Group 1 level for the first time but looks primed to record her seventh career victory.
The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained six year-old was again emphatic last start in the Australia Stakes and is a commanding market leader at $2.70.
This race will involve much more speed and pressure than she has previously encountered, but she is not one dimensional and can take a sit off the lead or push forward.
She is again the one to beat.
Wild Ruler has attracted early support, specked from $8 into $7.50.
He hasn’t raced since finishing last behind Nature Strip in The Everest but has caught the eye recently winning two barrier trials and warrants respect.
At longer odds it is worth including the ultra-consistent Away Game in the multiples. She has finished in the placings 14 times from 20 career starts and again holds appeal at $3 the place.
THE TIP: MARABI win and AWAY GAME place.
CHIPPING NORTON STAKES (1600m)
Randwick, R7, 4.05pm
Verry Elleegant won this race last year, Te Akau Shark the year before that and Winx had won the four previous editions.
After resuming from a spell with a tick-over run in the Apollo Stakes, the Melbourne Cup winner Verry Elleegant will be better suited stepping up in trip, but for mine she is too short at $2.80.
Wet-track specialist Colette is $4.80 and will relish the conditions. She’s won three of her five starts on soft ground and is a perfect three from three on the heavy.
Think It Over was strong when resuming from a spell and there is no reason why he won’t carry on his winning ways.
I expect improvement from Maximal second-up. He was disappointing when resuming but can get his Australian Cup bid back on track.
THE TIP: COLETTE and THINK IT OVER to win.
Originally published as Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Caulfield on Saturday
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