Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Bendigo on Saturday
Blue blood colt Remarque will relish a class drop when the Hawkes Racing three-year-old steps out at Bendigo on Saturday.
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s rich Golden Mile meeting at Bendigo.
BEST BET
REMARQUE (Race 4, No.7)
Smart colt with form around the likes of Anamoe and Shelby Sixtysix. He drops in class and should win if he races up to his Sydney form.
VALUE BET
SILENT SOVEREIGN (Race 5, No.5)
Smart mare with a good first-up record. The big track at Bendigo will suit and expecting her to run on hard late.
EARLY QUADDIE
4, 5, 9, 16/1, 3, 4, 9, 10, 17/4, 6, 7, 11, 14, 18/2, 3, 4, 5, 6
$100 flexi for 13.88 per cent
BIG6
4, 6, 7, 11, 14 /2, 3, 4, 5, 6/1, 2/1, 3, 4, 5/1, 5, 16/1, 3, 4
$100 flexi for 5.5 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 2, 8
Race 7: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10
Race 8: 1, 5, 14, 16
Race 9: 1, 3, 4, 14
$100 flexi for 41.66 per cent
RACE 1 (12:25PM) BM84 HANDICAP (2400m)
Interesting start to the Golden Mile meeting at Bendigo. POINT NEPEAN (9) will be much fitter for his fighting first-up second at Sandown earlier this month and should get the right run from barrier four. STEEL SKIES (10) tried hard again at Flemington last time and races well over this trip. EUREKA STREET (5) is up in trip after a steady effort at Mornington last Saturday and has won at Bendigo. VARDANI (2) is racing well and could notch a winning hat trick.
SUGGESTED BET: Point Nepean to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Point Nepean $4 – $3.50.
RACE 2 (1PM): BM70 HANDICAP (1300m)
One of several tough races on the Bendigo card. STRETTO (16) is extremely short in betting given the big field but he was dominant at Sandown second-up and will only be improved for that. BELLINGER (5) impressed when swamping his rivals at Cranbourne last start and the step to BM70 level looks suitable here. Local galloper AIR DEFENCE (4) wasn’t far away at Echuca last start and is worth thought despite the wide gate. PAL D’ORO (9) is racing consistently and blinkers go back on for this.
SUGGESTED BET: Stretto to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Stretto $3.20 – $2.25.
RACE 3 (1:35PM): VOBIS GOLD RUSH (1000m)
SOJU SESSION (9) is the only one of these runners to have won a race but raced on the speed and kept finding to score on debut. SHALAMAN (1) was no match for the subsequent Group 2 winner Let’srollthedice on debut but can improve sharply on firmer ground. OVER SHANDY (10) showed something on debut and will be better for the experience. FIELD OF FLUTES (4) is from the powerful Maher and Eustace camp and has shown enough at the jumpouts to consider here.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Soju Session.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Shalaman $6.50 – $4.80
RACE 4 (2:15PM): BM84 HANDICAP (1100m)
REMARQUE (7) drops in class after chasing home subsequent Group 1 winner Shelby Sixtysix in heavy ground in Sydney first-up. He’s well suited at this level. GOLD SPARK (11) was too strong at Echuca second-up and is unbeaten over this trip. SIMPLY OPTIMISTIC (4) wasn’t far away in this race first-up last year and his last Cranbourne jumpout was solid. COLSRIDGE (18) is a talented local galloper that goes well first-up and trialled well at Echuca leading up to this.
SUGGESTED BET: Remarque to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Remarque $5 – $3.80
RACE 5 (2:55PM): BENDIGO GOLD BRACELET (1400m)
SILENT SOVEREIGN (5) has a strong first-up record and ran a good second at The Valley first-up last time in. Expecting her to produce a big run fresh on the spacious track. FOXY FRIDA (2) is another mare that enjoys racing on big tracks and she has the quality to run well fresh. LA CHEVALEE (6) ran on well when resuming at Sandown and is yet to miss a placing first-up. VESPERTINE (4) tried hard behind the smart Annavisto at Flemington and should get every chance.
SUGGESTED BET: Silent Sovereign each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sirileo Miss $5.50 – $4.40
RACE 6 (3:35PM): BENDIGO ST LEGER TRIAL (2200m)
The Australian Derby plays a part in the thought process here. CAN’T GO WONG (1) is an acceptor in the Derby but is the clear top pick if Ciaron Maher and David Eustace decide to run him at Bendigo. THE CUNNING FOX (2) got too far back in the Alister Clark Stakes but should race closer in this easier assignment. PRINCETON AWARD (8) did his best work late over 1850m at Terang and this trip looks suitable for him. TASUMA (14) stretched out well late at Yarra Valley and could fill a place at any old odds in this.
SUGGESTED BET: Can’t Go Wong and The Cunning Fox to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Princeton Award $15 – $8.50
RACE 7 (4:15PM): BENDIGO GUINEAS (1400m)
CHARTRES (1) looked in need of this trip when a solid third at Caulfield first-up and should be harder to beat in this slightly easier contest. SHARP RESPONSE (5) lost the Mornington Guineas on protest but is a chance to atone for that here despite dropping 100m in trip. GUNDEC (3) was impressive winning an easier race first-up and he’ll be much fitter for that. MARS MISSION (4) chased OK at The Valley and looks ready for this trip. CARDIGAN QUEEN (10) is also a chance.
SUGGESTED BET: Chartres each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Cardigan Queen $3.20 – $2.80.
RACE 8 (4:50PM): GOLDEN MILE (1600m)
Tough edition of the Golden Mile for punters but going with I AM SUPERMAN (1), who was pressured up front before finishing ahead of stars Verry Elleegant and Duais in the Apollo Stakes first-up and he’s won a trial since. HOLBEIN (16) will roll forward and can give them something to chase. IRONCLAD (5) won this race last year and ran on well to score first-up in Adelaide. CHERRY TORTONI (14) has drawn wide but is racing well and won’t be far away.
SUGGESTED BET: I Am Superman each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: I Am Superman $13 – $9.50.
RACE 9 (5:30PM) BM100 HANDICAP (1400m)
CORNER POCKET (3) lost his winning streak in the Blamey Stakes but was far from disgraced when competitive with the likes of Zaaki and Inspirational Girl. He’ll find this easier and is unbeaten over this trip. GROUNDSWELL (4) will push forward and should be in this for a long way. SO SI BON (1) resumes and is always a chance in this class of race. ADELAIDE ACE (14) is another runner resuming and he has the quality to be competitive fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Corner Pocket to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Corner Pocket $4 – $3.10.
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Bendigo and Randwick.
BEST BET: Straight Arron (Randwick, R2 No.3)
VALUE BET: Mars Mission (Bendigo, R7 No.4)
LAY OF THE WEEK: Chalk Stream (Randwick, R4 No.12)
BENDIGO GUINEAS (1400m)
Bendigo, R7, 4.15pm
The money has come for the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained Cardigan Queen, who has been backed from $3.20 into $2.80.
Cardigan Queen has been a model of consistency fishing outside of the top two just once in her eight-start career.
Gundec resumed from a spell with a strong win at Geelong and is at $5.50 while there has been early support for Sharp Response, who was controversially stripped of victory at Mornington last Saturday.
The runner I am leaning towards is Mars Mission at $7.
Mars Mission was a horror watch when first-up at the Valley when back in the field and hampered when trying to make a run at the 400m mark before balancing up and hitting the line strong.
He steps up to 1400m and he looks a nice each-way play.
THE TIP: MARS MISSION each-way.
GROUP 1 SIRES’ PRODUCE (1400m)
Randwick, R6, 3.15pm
Golden Slipper winner Fireburn has been well backed to record a fifth straight victory.
The Gary Portelli-trained filly relished the heavy ground and punters have backed her from $2.80 into $2.60.
Two runners at double-figure odds that I will be having something on are Magic and Let’srollthedice.
Magic looks like he will be stronger stepping up to 1400m while Let’srollthedice could not have been any more impressive in his first two career starts winning at Bendigo and then Flemington.
THE TIP: FIREBURN win and LET’SROLLTHEDICE each-way.
GROUP 1 TJ SMITH STAKES (1200m)
Randwick, R8, 4.35pm
Nature Strip and Eduardo will once again clash in the TJ Smith Stakes
It will be the 10th time the star sprinters have raced against each other with Nature Strip holding a 5-4 head-to-head lead.
Nature Strip is looking to win this race for a third straight year and heads the market at $2.80.
He was just beaten in a photo finish in the Lightning Stakes when awkwardly away and copping interference while lumping 58.5kg but was well held by Eduardo last start in the Challenge Stakes.
Eduardo is marvellous sprinter who has not finished outside the top four in his past 10 starts and again shapes as a terrific winning hope.
Masked Crusader has been disappointing in both runs back this campaign but returns to Randwick where he does his best racing with three wins and four seconds from nine starts.
I have never seen a horse improve like Shelby Sixtysix.
On January 22 he ran 11th in a Highway Handicap and on March 19 won a Group 1 race.
There has been money for Shelby Sixtysix, $8 into $5.50.
Roch ‘N’ Horse caused a monster upset winning the Newmarket Handicap and is again worth including in the multiples.
THE TIP: EDUARDO win.
GROUP 1 DONCASTER MILE (1600m)
Randwick, R9, 5.15pm
Recent form and weights have Forbidden Love a worthy favourite in Saturday’s Doncaster Mile.
She comes into this after completing a winning hat-trick and will carry 7kg less than she did when winning the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes last start.
She has an excellent record on heavy ground with five wins from six attempts and with Jamie Kah in the saddle looks the one to beat.
Golden Eagle winner I’m Thunderstruck has been well backed and caught the eye at Flemington last start with a closing second behind Zaaki in the All-Star Mile.
Just Folk at $26 the win and $6 the place is worth including in the multiples.
The Josh Julius-trained galloper toppled Ellsberg last start and trialled well at Warwick Farm alongside Eduardo last Friday.
THE TIP: FORBIDDEN LOVE win, JUST FOLK place
Originally published as Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Bendigo on Saturday
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