Early Oil: Best bets and tips for 2022 Victoria Derby Day at Flemington
Jacquinot can bounce back to winning ways in the Coolmore Stud Stakes while the Empire Rose Stakes could produce rough result on Derby Day at Flemington.
News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s massive Victoria Derby meeting at Flemington.
BEST BET
JACQUINOT (Race 6, No.1)
Brilliant colt that charged to win the Golden Rose before a terrific effort in The Everest. That form is outstanding for the Coolmore Stud Stakes.
VALUE BET
YEARNING (Race 8, No.12)
Yearning has been excellent in her two 1400m runs and looks primed for the 1600m in the Empire Rose Stakes. Expect her to charge home late.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 6, 8, 10, 13/1, 3, 4, 5/1, 2, 3, 8/7, 8, 11, 15
$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent
BIG6
1, 2, 3, 8/7, 8, 11, 15/1, 15/1, 2, 4/7, 12, 14, 19/2, 3, 7
$100 flexi for 8.68 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 6, 14 15
Race 7: 1, 2, 4
Race 8: 7, 12, 14, 19
Race 9: 2, 3, 7
$100 flexi for 69.44 per cent
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RACE 1: 12:20PM GROUP 3 NETWORK 10 CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m)
Expecting a soft track to start the Melbourne Cup Carnival. Chris Waller has a good record in the Carbine Club Stakes and REDIENER (7) could continue that after his solid effort behind subsequent Group 2 winner Zoe’s Promise at Caulfield. SANDPAPER (2) held off a handy galloper to score at Caulfield and he should go well over 1600m. TIJUANA (1) was excellent in the Caulfield Guineas and must be respected. WATADEEL (8) is showing plenty of promise and is worth including.
SUGGESTED BET: Rediener each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Pungo $4 – $3.50.
RACE 2: 1PM GROUP 3 LEXUS ARCHER STAKES (2500m)
The last chance for most of these runners to secure a Melbourne Cup spot. SUREFIRE (8) will be at peak fitness after a good effort in the Geelong Cup and he handles soft ground. MAKRAM (6) also comes out of the Geelong Cup and he’s one of the main dangers from the perfect draw. INTERPRETATION (10) has had a few chances to book his Melbourne Cup place but should run well again. ALEGRON (1) struggled in the Caulfield Cup but could improve sharply at Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: Surefire to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Surefire $4.60 – $3.80.
RACE 3: 1:40PM GROUP 3 PARAMOUNT+ RISING FAST STAKES (1200m)
Possibly the hardest race of the day and not a race I’m keen to have a bet in. GENERAL BEAU (5) was sound with his first-up fourth at Caulfield and his straight-track form is excellent. He’s Group 1 placed at 1200m. GENERATION (3) was outsprinted over 1000m at Caulfield but he has a much better record at 1200m. THE ASTROLOGIST (1) was well held in the Manikato Stakes last Saturday but could improve down the straight. SIRIUS SUSPECT (4) comes into this fresh and he loves the straight.
SUGGESTED BET: General Beau each-way if you must.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Generation $5 – $3.70.
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RACE 4: 2:20PM GROUP 2 RACING AND SPORTS WAKEFUL STAKES (2000m)
AS TIME GOES BY (8) is a maiden but she’s a great chance to change that statistic in the Wakeful Stakes after a good effort when up to 1600m last start. She has blinkers on and the 2000m won’t worry her. PAVITRA (2) led and gave a good sight at Caulfield at her first 2000m and will be better for it. JENNY JEROME (1) was looking for more ground in a good 1000 Guineas effort and she gets it here. SO DAZZLING (3) was beaten at Newcastle last time but impressed winning at Flemington two starts back.
SUGGESTED BET: As Time Goes By to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: As Time Goes By $6 – $4.80.
RACE 5: 3:00PM GROUP 2 TAB LINLITHGOW STAKES (1400m)
Tricky race but going with TURAATH (7) on top after a terrific effort to score at Geelong second-up. She takes on the males but will be fitter, drops 4kg and has drawn perfectly. OLD FLAME (8) wasn’t disgraced in a difficult race at Caulfield but should be suited at Flemington. JIMMY THE BEAR (11) is super fit after racing through the winter and continues to perform well. PRIDE OF JENNI (15) led and fought on well at Caulfield and was close-up over this course two runs back.
SUGGESTED BET: Turaath to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Turaath $8.50 – $5.50.
RACE 6: 3:40PM GROUP 1 COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200m)
JACQUINOT (1) has performed extremely well in two of the best form races in the country at his last two runs, winning the Golden Rose and running a strong fifth in The Everest. He’ll be tough to hold out after drawing the right part of the track. BUENOS NOCHES (6) was narrowly beaten by The Everest winner Giga Kick in the Danehill Stakes and is flying down the straight. IN SECRET (15) is also a serious chance after her terrific run in the Golden Rose. COOLANGATTA (14) also demands respect after rolling the older horses in the Moir Stakes.
SUGGESTED BET: Jacquinot to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: In Secret $4 – $3.70.
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RACE 7: 4:20PM GROUP 1 PENFOLDS VICTORIA DERBY (2500m)
BERKELEY SQUARE (2) has had the perfect Derby preparation with a good fourth in the Caulfield Guineas and winning the Moonee Valley Vase last week. Confident he’ll see out the 2500m. SHARP ‘N’ SMART (1) produced a big effort to win the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney last Saturday but the wily Kiwi Graeme Rogerson will have him ready to go despite the seven-day back-up and float trip. MR MAESTRO (3) has also met every challenge on the way to the Derby and should go well despite the draw. DISTRUSTFUL AWARD (13) finished strongly at Caulfield, indicating the 2500m won’t worry him.
SUGGESTED BET: Berkeley Square to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Berkeley Square $4.20 – $3.40.
RACE 8: 5PM GROUP 1 EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m)
Tough edition of the Empire Rose Stakes made even more difficult by the redrawn barriers. Expecting the big field of mares to produce enough speed for YEARNING (12) to run on from the back of the field. Her two runs this time in have been promising. Kiwi mare LA CRIQUE (14) was awesome winning in her homeland last start and should measure up. PALAISIPAN (7) benefited from the revised barrier draw and she is always competitive in this type of race. ICEBATH (1) never runs a bad race and should be included.
SUGGESTED BET: Yearning each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: La Crique $2.80 – $2.50.
RACE 9: 5:40PM GROUP 3 FURPHY SPRINT (110m)
Big field to finish Derby Day but happy to back ZAPATEO (3) to end the day on a high after her two strong efforts at Caulfield. She’ll love the soft ground and will be nard to hold out. WRITTEN BEAUTY (7) improved sharply second-up, will be fitter again and is a straight-track winner. ASFOORA (1) was dominant in the Caulfield Sprint and is unbeaten over 1100m. NAJMATY (8) won well first-up last time in and has the quality to threaten here.
SUGGESTED BET: Zapateo to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Asfoora $3.50 – $3.
Originally published as Early Oil: Best bets and tips for 2022 Victoria Derby Day at Flemington
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