Damien Oliver: Everything points to Attrition coming out on top in Group 1 Northerly Stakes

Damien Oliver is keen on Attrition in the Northerly Stakes and explains why the Victorian galloper will win the final Group 1 of the year.

Damien Oliver

2 min read

December 5, 2024 - 12:00PM

Final Group 1 meeting of the year! | $19 omen at Ascot | G1 Northerly preview

Everything has fallen into place nicely for Attrition to cap his breakthrough campaign with a win in Saturday’s Group 1 Northerly Stakes (1800m) at Ascot.

Mitch Freedman has done a superb job with the five-year-old, headed by that big win in the Hill Stakes at Rosehill.

It’s been noticeable and successful how he has spaced his runs and it’s the same going into this race, albeit with a bowl around in a Belmont trial since coming west.

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Attrition is drawn well, is in career-best form, will love the distance and clearly looks the horse to beat with another nice Beau Mertens ride, who gets along with him so well.

Storyville is the filly they’re all talking about and with good reason.

Three-year-olds have such a fantastic record in this race, given the great weight pull they enjoy.

I’ve got some concerns about barrier one for her. She’s a big filly, who wears ear muffs and she could get cluttered up.

That said, you have to respect the strike rate of Grant and Alana Williams, especially when they team up with Willie Pike in this race.

She’ll just need luck and room at the right time.

Super Smink’s run in the Railway Stakes was excellent, and she’s drawn for good run, but my little query is whether she will run out a strong 1800m.

• Northerly Stakes runner-by-runner guide

The blowout could be Let’s Galahvant, who ran a slashing race in the Railway and should appreciate the extra distance.

Closer to home, I’ve found a real roughie I like in the Ballarat Cup.

Have a look at the first-up run of Strawberry Rock, it was a ripper at Flemington. I can’t believe he’s about $31.

Trained by Ciaron Maher and gets Harry Coffey – the Caulfield Cup-winning combo – along with a good draw.

He’s just got to sneak into the field as an emergency. You can bet Ciaron has really set the horse for this race.

Berkeley Square made up a stack of ground at Caulfield last week, gets a good draw in a race where many key chances have drawn wide, and I’m sure he’ll run well.

I’m really wary of those wide draws for horses right in the market like Poison Chalice, Torranzino and Ain’tnodeeldun.