Caulfield Cup: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy run the rule over every starter

RAY Thomas and Sky Sports Radio’s formexpert Ron Dufficy look at Saturday’s Caulfield Cup runners

RAY THOMAS AND RON DUFFICY

5 min read

October 17, 2014 - 9:00PM

Turnbull Stakes Day Races at Flemington, Turnbull Stakes 2000m, (L) Kerrin McEvoy on board Lucia Valentina makes a mover at the 100m mark on Lidari and Brambles. 4th October 2014. Picture : Colleen Petch.

RAY Thomas and Sky Sports Radio’s form expert Ron Dufficy look at Saturday’s Caulfield Cup runners

ADMIRE RAKTI

Ray Thomas: The Japanese have a terrific record with stayers in Australia — he is not topweight for nothing.

Ron Dufficy: Look, he is obviously a quality animal. This is his first start since May, where he can be forgiven because the track was very hard. He has run fourth in a Japan Cup so you know he is quality. Leave him out at your own risk.

CLICK HERE: CAULFIELD CUP FORM

GREEN MOON

Thomas: Green Moon is well weighted given his record. He was OK first-up but was poor last start. I can’t have him, Ronnie, but there is the Lloyd Williams-Robert Hickmott factor.

Dufficy: We know he is good enough but it was a career-worst run last start and I can’t get involved after a run like that.

SEA MOON

Thomas: This horse intrigues me. He was OK in The Bart Cummings and will be improved. He won the Herbert Power Stakes over this course and distance last spring and is a strong stayer, but I think he might be more a Melbourne Cup horse.

Dufficy: This looks like his Melbourne Cup lead-up race. He was just fair first-up and I want to see him again.

THE OFFER

Thomas: He has drawn a horror barrier but he will go forward and we know he can stay. Another who needed to pass a veterinary examination yesterday morning.

Dufficy: He is crying out for the distance and probably further but I think his best chance is if there is any rain but it looks like a firm track for the race.

CLICK HERE: CAULFIELD CUP FORM

SEISMOS

Thomas: It’s hard to get a handle on him except he did win a Group 1 in Germany at 2400m and was a last-start Group 3 winner in England. His trainer is a genius with a phenomenal record when he travels with horses. A chance.

Dufficy: When he won at Newbury in that Group 3 race he box-seated, so the inside barrier is OK today. They all went past him and he looked gone but he fought back and won. He’s a real stayer. I don’t want to back him but I don’t want to knock him, either.

HAWKSPUR

Thomas: He won the Chelmsford Stakes but fair to say he was disappointing in the Turnbull. He’s good enough and is one of four chances for Chris Waller. He’s an each way chance.

Dufficy: I was disappointed in his Turnbull run as well but he had the trip from Sydney to Melbourne and maybe he needed the run. He wasn’t beaten far in this race last year with similar lead-up form. I can’t back him but I won’t bag anyone that wants to back him.

Blake Shinn wins the Metropolitan on Junooob.

JUNOOB

Thomas:Douglas Whyte comes down from Hong Kong to ride and this horse comes off a very tough win in The Metropolitan in record time. He went to the front a long way out at Randwick and sustained his run to the line. He will roll forward again, be up on the speed out of trouble, and this horse is in the zone right now.

Dufficy: Whether he can get up on the speed from that barrier, I don’t know. But if he does get over without a problem, then he is right in this race. His only previous Caulfield run was a second so he handles this track.

MORIARTY

Thomas: He won the Craven Plate when ridden a clever, stalking race. He is a Brisbane Cup winner, he’s a seasoned stayer who has had a perfect preparation. He’s not the roughest in this race.

Dufficy: He ran well in the Caulfield Cup last year after a fifth in The Metropolitan so he goes into this race with similar form. I can’t put him in my top chances.

CLICK HERE: CAULFIELD CUP FORM

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

Thomas: He might struggle to get around Caulfield, but I’ve liked his two Flemington wins because he was so strong through the line. Barrier is terrible, but he will roll forward and if he gets up on the speed in a fast-run Caulfield Cup he could be the knockout horse of this race.

Dufficy: Caulfield is a big worry and for this race you need a bit of class. I think he is more a Flemington horse and I think his best chance is in a Melbourne Cup.

STIPULATE

Thomas: Was good in the Turnbull but I don’t know whether he is good enough to win a Caulfield Cup.

Dufficy: I think he is a distance query, too. He was brilliant first-up but just fair at his last two runs.

LIDARI

Thomas: He was terrific in the Turnbull, Peter Moody was desperate to get him into the Cup and has done so now, he races up on the speed and has drawn the right barrier. He ticks a lot of boxes.

Dufficy: What’s wrong with his form? He’s a tough on-pacer, gets 2400m, peaking at the right time and is on his home track. Not the worst chance in this.

LUCIA VALENTINA

Thomas: She was fantastic winning the Turnbull Stakes. She is not the biggest mare in training but she has no fear, diving into gaps and shouldering horses aside. This mare does have an electrifying turn of foot and you need horses with dash and class to win Caulfield Cups.

Dufficy: She has returned in great order. She did get a great ride in the Turnbull which may have been a little flattering but she still has upside, she goes on wet or dry, gets the distance, peaking at the right time — hard to beat.

Australian Oaks winner Rising Romance.

RISING ROMANCE

Thomas: I’m not ruling this mare out. She won the Oaks brilliantly at Randwick back in the autumn, beating Lucia Valentina, and she has improved with each of her three runs this spring. There was merit in her Craven Plate effort and she is right in this.

Dufficy: I’m warming to her. I’ve been watching her closely in Sydney. She has presents fourth-up, stays well. There is a lot to like.

CLICK HERE: CAULFIELD CUP FORM

BIG MEMORY

Thomas: He won the Herbert Power last week but he drew well and had all the favours. Today, Big Memory has a horror barrier and will have to work hard to get across. This will be much tougher.

Dufficy: The barrier draw has put paid to any hope.

BRAMBLES

Thomas: His Turnbull run was very competitive. He’s a Queensland Derby winner and rates as a terrific lightweight chance.

Dufficy: Peaking at the right time, he has found form again. I’m not ruling him out.

ARALDO

Thomas: Was good in The Metropolitan but I’d say an outside chance at best.

Dufficy: He’s a strong stayer but lacks quality.

UNCHAIN MY HEART

Thomas: This mare needs Flemington and 3200m minimum.

Dufficy: Not good enough for a Caulfield Cup.

RENEW

Thomas: He produced an ordinary in the Herbert Power.