Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Epsom Day at Royal Randwick

Sky Racing form expert Brad Davidson examines every race at Randwick’s big triple Group 1 day on Saturday to point you in the right direction to finding a winner.

Lost And Running is the one to beat in the Premiere Stakes at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Grant Guy

Sky Racing’s form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets, for the Rosehill Gardens meeting on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here.

RANDWICK

Track: Soft 7. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit

Race 1

Overview: Always hard to line up all these two-year-old debutants. I thought Snatchreilly trialled well enough in a fast heat and he looked professional enough to go close in this race. Empire Of Japan made up many lengths in his heat and he clocked the second best last 200m split of the trial session. Physical Graffiti and Mach Ten are also likely to have plenty of admirers.

Betting Advice: Empire Of Japan the one to beat but Snatchreilly looms as the value.

Race 2

Overview: Perfect Proposal was pretty dominant in her only trial at Randwick and it was the quickest heat of the morning as well. She looks the horse to beat here. I thought Rockabilly Rebel was all style in her Warwick Farm trial win and there’s no surprise to me that she has been well supported at odds in early markets. Sicilian is also sure to have plenty of admirers on debut.

Betting Advice: Perfect Proposal the one to beat but Rockabilly Rebel runs well at odds.

Mahagoni can make it back-to-back wins after his impressive performance here last start. Picture: Getty Images

Race 3

Overview: Mahagoni was terrific last start and there’s no reason he can’t win again here. He just doesn’t want the track too wet and he needs a good ride from the wide draw. Arnold has been crying out for the mile and gets there fourth up this weekend. He was a shade disappointing at his first try in Saturday grade last start all the same. Kalino is having a great prep and just didn’t quite see out the 1800m last start, while Hosier looks next best.

Betting Advice: Leaning to Mahagoni.

Race 4

Overview: This looks a race in two between Cascadian and Montefilia. It’s hard to tip against the favourite Montefilia and she profiles well out to 2000m second up. Second up last prep she won the Ranvet in a hand canter. Cascadian was disappointing last start but the step up in trip should suit him here as does the wet track.

Betting Advice: Montefilia on top of Cascadian.

Classy mare Montefilia can take out the Hill Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

Race 5

Overview: Pretty open race this. Communist was strong at the provincials last start and although he didn’t beat much he does find James McDonald here. Williamsburg is the weighted horse and he meets the likes of Flag Of Honour much better at the weights from recent clashes. He just gets a fair way back from the draw here. Flag Of Honour, Conqueror, Lindemann, Artmosphere and Owen County all have claims.

Betting Advice: Very open race. Communist perhaps?

Race 6

Overview: I like this race from a betting angle. I know the Tea Rose Stakes has produced the Flight Stakes winner pretty much every year in recent history but I’m pretty confident the Golden Rose is the form line here. Fireburn was terrific last weekend and the 1600m at Randwick on a wet track sets up perfectly. The gate is sticky but I think she’ll be too strong late. I think She’s Extreme is the big danger. She struggled to go with Fireburn in the Golden Rose but she did beat her in the Champagne last prep at this track and distance. She was given a peach of a ride that day though and found the right part of the track (the fence). Zougotcha and Wolverine are certainty tracking well but the Tea Rose was very soft on the clock and I’m prepared to take on that form line.

Betting Advice: Fireburn and She’s Extreme to win.

Fireburn looks a great chance to claim the Group 1 Flight Stakes. Picture: Grant Guy

Race 7

Overview: This looks a lovely race for Lost And Running and he just doesn’t want a real heavy track. He was outstanding first up and the 1200m second up profiles beautifully as a platform into the TAB Everest two weeks later. Mazu wants the rain to really arrive and he was OK fresh but needs to lift a touch all the same. Overpass beat home Lost And Running first up but I think he was flattered and this is a different ball game now at 1200m.

Betting Advice: Lost And Running on top.

Race 8

Overview: The Epsom might be lacking big numbers this year but it’s still an interesting race with plenty of angles. I know Icebath got the better of Hinged last start but Hinged gets the weight swing and I just thought they were too far apart in betting early (that gap has closed now). Icebath does set up beautifully fourth up out to 1600m on a wet track with James McDonald aboard. She’ll be hard to beat. Nimalee looms as the best roughie and it’s interesting to note she has taken on Icebath five times in the past two years and beaten her home four times.

Betting Advice: Hinged and Icebath look the two main hopes. Nimalee best roughie.

Hinged (left) is well weighted in the Epsom Handicap. Picture: Grant Guy

Race 9

Overview: Tricky race and there are plenty of different angles here. Stockman could have been a bit stronger late third up but he has been set for this and 2400m on a wet track suits him well. Yes, he has top weight but there’s not a big spread in the weights and it’s not a super strong race this year. Le Don De Vie comes right into play on a heavy track and he finds James McDonald here. Durston has bolted in his past two starts but this is a different set up here. He can win but looks too short in early betting. Grove Ferry is among a number of other chances.

Betting Advice: Stockman perhaps in an open race.

Race 10

Overview: Tough race the last as is usually the case in Sydney on a Saturday. Remarque was terrific first up but he is still yet to win at 1200m. Bacchanalia worked too hard first up and he is a good wet tracker that draws to get a more favourable run here. Chassis’ figure first up last prep stacks up well here, while Coal Crusher, O’President, Zoushack and Maotai are all capable.

Betting Advice: Go wide in this leg of the quaddie.

Originally published as Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Epsom Day at Royal Randwick