$126 bargain revealed in Victoria Derby runner-by-runner guide
The 168-year-old Victoria Derby is set to be run and won at Flemington, but a rank outsider may be the best value of the day.
Sixteen three-year-olds will test their stamina over the 2500m in Saturday’s Group 1 Victoria Derby at Flemington.
It’s been a race that has produced rough results in recent years with Manzoice saluting at $21 in the most recent edition while Johnny Get Angry won at a similar price in 2020.
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Here is our runner-by-runner analysis for every horse in the field:
1) APULIA (Barrier: 3)
Jockey: Mark Zahra, Trainer: Ben, Will & JD Hayes. TAB: $4.80
Won last Saturday’s Moonee Valley Vase in good fashion after being backed late ($5.50 – $4.20). Was given a super ride from Mark Zahra, who sticks on Saturday and jumps from a similar barrier. The way he was strong through the line would suggest the extra trip shouldn’t pose an issue.
Verdict: Hard to dismiss.
2) VERDAD (Barrier: 4)
Jockey: Jye McNeil, Trainer: Robbie Griffiths & Mathew de Kock. TAB: $8.50
Second to Apuilia last Saturday after setting a strong tempo upfront. He was game when fighting on for second and he should be thereabouts on the speed again. This has been the long term goal for the stable and we should see the best of him out to 2500m.
Verdict: Can bounce back.
3) AIR ASSAULT (Barrier: 6)
Jockey: Ben Allen, Trainer: Andrew Gluyas. TAB: $18
Has improved at every run this campaign and chased solidly behind Apulia and Verdad last week. Should be rock hard fit for this, but does lose the services of Damian Lane.
Verdict: Has to improve.
4) RIFF ROCKET (Barrier: 5)
Jockey: James McDonald, Trainer: Chris Waller. TAB: $2.10
When you consider the price ($1.35) he started last time out, Riff Rocket may have been disappointing when narrowly beaten in the Caulfield Classic but it was a super run. The winner (Sunsets) had an easy time of it up on the speed and had enough left in the tank to hold on by a narrow margin as the pair gapped the third horse by 2.5 lengths. The way he exploded to win the Super Impose Stakes two back was one of a very good horse and if he runs the 2500m, they will find it hard to beat him.
Verdict: The one to beat.
5) SUNSETS (Barrier: 16)
Jockey: John Allen, Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. TAB: $14
Did beat the favourite last start and that horse is $2.25 whereas Sunsets is $15. Did have a picnic up on the speed that day though and it’s worth noting the start prior, he was beaten six-and-a-half lengths by Riff Rocket. Will have to work from barrier 16 as well.
Verdict: Ticks boxes.
6) MAKE A CALL (Barrier: 15)
Jockey: Jamie Kah, Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden. TAB: $61
A maiden after 15 starts, so it would be some effort to break through and win this race. It was a solid effort in a Class 1 and Maiden Plate at Kembla last time out when strong through the line and it’s worth noting the blinkers go off here. While he’s yet to win a race, he’s been competitive against the likes of Tom Kitten and Militarize in the past.
Verdict: Not the worst at a big price.
7) GOLD BULLION (Barrier: 13)
Jockey: Opie Bosson, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott. TAB: $26
Winner of the Derby trial two back ahead of Sunsets before a disappointing effort in the Caulfield Classic when the market pegged him as the only real threat to Riff Rocket as a $5 chance.
Verdict: Will have to improve.
8) GATES (Barrier: 14)
Jockey: Luke Nolen, Trainer: Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman. TAB: $12
Gets here third-up off two solid runs and thought his Caulfield Classic effort had plenty of merit after he made ground from the tail in a slowly run race. The son of Frankel hit the line like a horse that has the stamina to be competitive in a Victoria Derby.
Verdict: Strong winning prospect.
9) KOSGEI (Barrier: 9)
Jockey: Blake Shinn, Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. TAB: $34
Comes through the Geelong Classic when hitting the line well to grab third. Beaten 12 lengths by Riff Rocket the start prior. Confident he’ll run the trip but unsure if he has the class to win.
Verdict: Place at best.
10) BULAWAYO (Barrier: 7)
Jockey: Celine Gaudray, Trainer: Pat Carey & Harris Walker. TAB: $61
This son of Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente was solid last Saturday in the Moonee Valley Vase when grabbing fourth, although beaten a long way. He will have to improve off what we saw on that occasion.
Verdict: Needs to lift.
11) SACRED EAGLE (Barrier: 2)
Jockey: Jordan Childs, Trainer: Symon Wilde. TAB: $81
Broke through for his maiden win two back at Kyneton before an even effort in the Geelong Classic, finishing fourth and beaten 2.5 lengths. Blinkers go on for the first time.
Verdict: Prefer others.
12) ROGUERY (Barrier: 1)
Jockey: Billy Egan, Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell & Lucy Yeomans. TAB: $41
Strong win against the older horses over the 2000m at Kilmore last time out, beating a former SA Derby contender in Reservoir Dog. The start prior was equally as impressive, coming from last to win by four lengths, albeit in a Tatura maiden over 1980m.
Verdict: Not the worst.
13) MERCANTE (Barrier: 11)
Jockey: Damien Oliver, Trainer: Nigel Blackiston. TAB: $51
Solid effort against the older horses last time out at Ballarat. This is a big rise in grade but he hit the line well over 2000m that day and Damien Oliver is in the saddle.
Verdict: Prefer others.
14) TO BE FRANK (Barrier: 10)
Jockey: Jamie Spencer, Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace. TAB: $61
Didn’t fire any shots last time out in the Caulfield Classic when finishing last. Blinkers come off.
Verdict: Can’t entertain.
15) WARIALDA WARRIOR (Barrier: 9)
Jockey: Darryl McLellan, Trainer: John Ramsey. TAB: $101
Trainer John Ramsey has used a 2200m race at Scone into a Group 1 successfully in the past with Never Listen doing it in 2019 when running second in the VRC Oaks. Warialda Warrior follows a similar path here having won in dominant style at Scone last Friday. He got back, circled them and stormed home like a good horse to take the win. As fit as anything in the race, he’ll run the trip and give an enormous sight.
Verdict: Shouldn’t be $126. Have something on him at the massive price.
16) TOKYO RUN (Barrier: 8)
Jockey: Declan Bates, Trainer: Dean Mirfin. TAB: $151
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Led them up in the Caulfield Classic and despite going along at a soft tempo, he dropped out of it and was beaten 6-½ lengths.
Verdict: Looks outclassed.
This story first appeared at Punters.com.au and was republished with permission.
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