State of Origin 2016: NSW can’t match Queensland’s mix of talent, consistency and luck

HISTORY shows that if Cooper Cronk is ruled out of an Origin game, the odds of a Blues win get a dramatic boost. writes PAUL KENT.

Paul Kent

3 min read

May 30, 2016 - 9:00PM

Can the Blues find a way to match Queensland’s experience and consistency?

SOMEHOW, the Blues got backed in from $1.92 to $1.85 on Monday.

This is said less as a promotion for the TAB, who need no help from me pulling the wings off flies, than a genuine nod to the fragility of line-ups in a contest that is supposed to be 50-50.

Their confidence is based on the uncertainty around Cooper Cronk and what happens when he is not part of the series.

Just a subtle tour through the record books shows it last happened in 2014 when Cronk ran out in Game I as part of the Queensland team that hammered NSW’s line for the first 10 minutes and looked set for a solid breakthrough on the scoreboard when Cronk broke his arm.

Nobody could believe what happened next.

Daly Cherry-Evans replaced Cronk and most thought it would be seamless. It wasn’t.

With Cherry-Evans and Johnathan Thurston never quite gelling the contest stayed close and NSW took an early series lead, winning 12-8 at Suncorp Stadium.

Preparation, everybody thought. Queensland practised little with Cherry-Evans at halfback for that game but with a full camp behind him for Game II the Maroons would roar back.

They didn’t.

Daly Cherry-Evans’s struggles showed how Queensland’s dominance won’t last forever.

Queensland’s problems continued in Game II and the Blues, taking advantage of it, snatched it late, 6-4 when Trent Hodkinson passed left but held the ball and slipped through the defence.

Cronk returned last year and Queensland resumed as Origin champions and when he was picked there again for Wednesday’s night’s game there was nothing to change the form guide.

Then Cronk rolled an ankle at training last week after acceptances were in. Nobody worried too much about it at the time but his ankle blew out like a pregnant frog and suddenly there was doubt about whether he will be fit to play.

Sensing an edge, punters moved in.

Such a shift on the back of one injury shows how fortunate Queensland has been for the past decade.

Johnathan Thurston is running out for his 34th straight game on Wednesday. He has never missed a game since his debut in 2005.

Ahead of Thurston, Cameron Smith will break the record for most games in Origin history. Wednesday is his 37th Origin game. Since his debut in 2003 he has missed one.

Nate Myles has played Origin for 10 years and missed just one game. Greg Inglis just three in his 10 seasons.

It is the Queensland way, a streak of unbelievable consistency in the important positions. Darren Lockyer, for instance, missed just six games in his 14 seasons.

It also shows how difficult it remains for the Blues.

Josh Dugan is the latest Blue to be wiped out by injury.

The most NSW can offer in Origin experience is Brad Fittler (31), who retired 12 years ago.

The most experienced current NSW player is Paul Gallen with 21 Origins in 10 seasons. Next is Michael Jennings, with 15 in seven seasons.

To add to Daley’s elevated heart rate he goes into the game with a halves pairing of James Maloney, with three games experience, and Adam Reynolds on debut.

Queensland have always had a champion playing in the halves. For the entire 1980s it was Wally Lewis, whose career overlapped with Allan Langer.

Langer’s career overlapped with Lockyer and Lockyer’s overlapped with Thurston.

Can the Blues find a way to match Queensland’s experience and consistency?

NSW has not had a player of equal quality since Andrew Johns retired in 2005.

Cronk falls just a little short of being classified in the champion status, but only just. The measure of his talent is how far the uncertainty of his availability alongside Thurston shifted the betting markets.

That, and a simmering confusion about this Blues side.