Why Australia can win the World Cup — and why they probably won’t

The Wallabies have a terrific track record at the Rugby World Cup. But can Michael Cheika really conjure up another miracle in Japan? Here are the arguments for and against Australia.

Michael Cheika waves to the crowd following defeat in the 2015 World Cup final.

WHY AUSTRALIA CAN WIN THE RUGBY WORLD CUP

* Tournament specialists

Have long over-achieved at the quadrennial showpiece (read on for a full history lesson).

There have been some serious lows over the past four years but that’s not dissimilar to pre-2015, when the Wallabies defied the odds to reach another final.

* Hard grounds

Forward grinds don’t generally end well for Australia.

Games played at speed suit their personnel and psyche, especially if fielding world class breakdown exponents Michael Hooper and David Pocock in tandem.

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WHY AUSTRALIA CAN’T WIN THE RUGBY WORLD CUP

* Quality queuing up

New Zealand still look peerless.

England and South Africa are imposing and seem to be peaking.

Wales and Ireland also boast the credentials to claim a maiden crown.

* Lack of momentum

Another sub-par Super Rugby season in Australia was dominated by the Israel Folau crisis.

Aside from a stunning trans-Tasman upset in Perth, the Wallabies’ Test performances since could be described as solid at best.

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THEY’RE BACK!

Drew Mitchell and Stephen Hoiles have released a new episode

— Wallabies’ positives vs. Samoa & their RWC Snub XV

ON YOUR PHONE? CLICK HERE TO LISTEN

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WALLABIES HISTORY AT THE RUGBY WORLD CUP

2015 (hosts England) — Runners-up

Unbeaten, including knockout stage wins over Scotland and Argentina, until running into a great All Blacks side in the Twickenham decider, losing 34-17.

2011 (NZ) — Third place

Beaten by Ireland in pool play but still advance to a victorious quarter-final against South Africa.

Lose 20-6 to eventual champions New Zealand in the semis.

2007 (France) — Quarter-finals

Untroubled in pool play before being kicked out of the tournament by Jonny Wilkinson as World Cup nemeses England prevail 12-10 in the quarters.

2003 (Australia) — Runners-up

Unbeaten on home soil, including a memorable semi-final vanquishing of New Zealand, before being pipped 20-17 by WIlkinson’s England in a Sydney final that went to extra time.

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1999 (Wales) — Champions

Among the most dominant winners in tournament history, iced by their 35-12 trouncing of France in the final.

Springboks were the toughest foe in a kick-dominated semi-final nailbiter.

1995 (South Africa) — Quarter-finals

Cape Town is the scene of a pool loss to champions-in-waiting South Africa and then again to England, 25-22 in the quarters.

Only failure of the 1990s.

1991 (UK and Ireland) — Champions

A coming of age for Nick Farr-Jones’ unbeaten men, who sneak past Ireland late and outclass the All Blacks in the knockout phase before a grinding 12-6 defeat of England at Twickenham.

1987 — (NZ and Australia) — Fourth

Reach the semi-finals effortlessly before Serge Blanco’s late try hands France a 30-24 boilover in Sydney and robs the inaugural tournament of a trans-Tasman finale.

Originally published as Why Australia can win the World Cup — and why they probably won’t