Australia will win a record 18 gold medals at Rio Olympic Games, says sports data research organisation

AUSTRALIA will win a record 18 gold medals and finish fourth on the medal tally at the Rio Olympics, predicts a respected sports data research organisation.

AUSTRALIA will win a record 18 gold medals and finish fourth on the medal tally at the Rio Olympics, according to the latest predictions of an internationally respected sports data research organisation.

And should Russia be barred from competing in the athletics meet following last year’s drug scandal, Australia could leapfrog them into third place.

US-owned company Gracenote, a leading provider of entertainment and sports data to major corporations and sporting organisations including the Australian Institute of Sport, has Australia below only the US, China and Russia on its most recent “Virtual Medal Table”, with a predicted total medal count of 41 that includes 13 silver and 10 bronze.

Mitch Larkin is predicted to win two gold medals in Rio.

Australia’s record gold medal haul is the 17 won in Athens in 2004.

The predicted 18 gold medals come mainly from swimming, with eight, then two each to rowing and sailing and one each to track cycling, BMX cycling, slalom canoe, shooting, men’s hockey and women’s rugby sevens.

In the pool world champions Mitch Larkin and Emily Seebohm are tipped to win two gold medals each in the 200m and 100m backstroke, with individual golds going to Cameron McEvoy and Cate Campbell in the men’s and women’s 100m freestyle, and Bronte Campbell in the 50m freestyle. The women’s 4x100m freestyle relay is also favoured for gold.

The other athletes tipped for gold are Jessica Fox (slalom canoe), Caroline Buchanan (BMX), Men’s Four and Kim Brennan (rowing), Warren Potent (shooting), Tom Burton and the pairing of Matt Belcher and Will Ryan (sailing), and the men’s team pursuit (cycling).

Australia’s only projected medal in track and field at present is a silver to walker Jared Tallent, although defending 100m hurdles champion Sally Pearson – now ranked 12th in her event by Gracenote analysts – is expected to move into contention as she continues to produce improved performances after injury.

Australia’s world No.1 golfer Jason Day is tipped to win silver behind the USA’s Jordan Spieth.

Speaking from his base in the Netherlands, Gracepoint’s Head of Analysis, Sport, Simon Gleave, said the projections were based on extensive data collected over a four-year period between Olympics.

BMX star Caroline Buchanan is tipped to win gold in Rio.

“We take into account all competitions of world class, such as world championships and world cups, for all 306 Olympic medal events over the four years,” he said.

“We weight them on two criteria, how recent they are, and the strength of the competition.

“We look at the top eight in each event and then through calculations using a set algorithm, we come up with a projected ranking.

“In events such as swimming and athletics we are able to take results of events through the Olympic qualifying period and, using the best time recorded, hold a virtual race to come up with the most likely winners.

Of course when it comes to actual Olympic competition anything can happen, but we calculate the projected results based on all the information available.”

With some countries still to hold their Olympic selections, the predictions will be continually updated but, as it now stands, Australia sits four gold medals behind Russia and only one ahead of fifth placed Great Britain with Germany a further two behind.

Originally published as Australia will win a record 18 gold medals at Rio Olympic Games, says sports data research organisation