Matthew Johns says only 6 teams can win the 2012 NRL premiership

NEXT week's State of Origin decider is looming as an important date for a number of reasons.

NEXT week's State of Origin decider is looming as an important date for a number of reasons.

Not only is it shaping as one of the biggest games the code has seen in decades but, in NRL terms, it marks the end of the silly season and starts the run home to the finals. Let's take a last look at those who can and those who can't push for the premiership.

MELBOURNE STORM

Why they can win it: This rebuilt Storm squad is far more prepared for September football than the one that was bundled out of the finals by the Warriors in 2011.

Three weeks ago against the Tigers - without Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith - the Storm showed me that they are far better balanced than they have been given credit for.

Slater's knee injury and subsequent month on the sideline will only freshen him, as will Gareth Widdop's little stint at fullback.

If Craig Bellamy can get over his obsession with winning minor premierships and force Cronk and Smith to take a week off here and there in July and August, the Storm will take some stopping.

Bookies price: $3.50 My price: $3

* * *

MANLY SEA EAGLES

Why they can win it:  No side has gone back-to-back since the Broncos in 1998, but Manly are a huge chance.

They have had a difficult campaign. They have lost a coach, endured injuries and the distraction of players coming off contract. They have also survived an early-season round-the-world trip, but this is a team which knows how to time its run.

The key men are Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran. These boys are the future of this club and they still have lots of improvement left in them. If they can find a fair slab of that improvement between now and October, the title will return to Brookvale.

Bookies price:  $5.50 My price: $4.50

* * *

BRISBANE BRONCOS

Why they can win it: Coach Anthony Griffin knows it, that's why he's choosing to rest key men during the Origin period.

This young squad is the fittest, fastest, strongest and most powerful in the competition. The Broncos are on the cusp of a golden period, which may start this year.

I love the way they blow sides apart through the middle of the field with their speed and footwork.

The combination of Peter Wallace and Josh Hoffman is one of the best in the NRL. Wallace is quick between the ears, and emerging superstar Hoffman is just quick quick. A very good bet.

Bookies price: $6 My price: $4.50

* * *

Sam Kasiano

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS

Why they can win it: A  month ago I would have said no, but they are finding rapid improvement in their attack to complement stoic defence. Des Hasler is proving himself to be one of the greatest signings this proud club has ever made.

The two key men are Sam Kasiano and Ben Barba. This is the best front- row, fullback combination since Beetson and Fairfax. Barba is a phenomenon.

He is becoming the attacking genius that the Bulldogs always hoped he could be when they signed him as a teenage prodigy from far North Queensland.

Meanwhile, nteKasiano is the biggest halfback in the competition. He is the man who directs where the ball needs to go and the likes of Barba, Reynolds and Keating feed off his pass selection.

My gut tells me the Dogs are still one creative player short in and around the halves and hooker. If they come up short that will be the reason.

Bookies price: $7 My price: $7.50

* * *

WESTS TIGERS

Why they can win it: The ability to win it is not the issue. The biggest test for the Tigers is the ability to knuckle down from now until October and play tough, grinding, winning football.

Discipline and defensive energy remain a difficult focus. If they get that right, they will go mighty close.

Robbie Farah has proven himself to be one of the game's most influential players. When he plays, the Tigers rarely lose. When he's out, they struggle. A fit and fresh Farah is essential.

Bookies price: $8 My price: $8

* * *

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Why they can win it: Michael Maguire has done wonders with this team. Souths haven't demonstrated this kind of toughness and consistency since the late '80s.

My issue with the Bunnies isn't ability, it's self-belief.

I've seen them explode out of the blocks and lead the likes of the Broncos, but then suddenly stop playing football and get run down.

That's self-doubt.

They have a lot of things going for them. Inglis is a genius, Adam Reynolds is exactly the halfback they need and their defence is close to the best in the NRL.

Between now and September, Maguire must find that elusive and mysterious thing which gives a team belief under pressure.

Bookies price: $15 My price: $13

* * *

Johnathan Thurston and Matt Bowen

THE NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS

Can they win it?: I don't think so. Any side that has Jonathon Thurston, Matt Bowen and Matt Scott, you would think must be a big chance.

However I'm still waiting for that Cowboys performance which has me thinking these blokes are the real deal.

It's been a good fortnight for the Cowboys, the 12-0 win over Brisbane was encouraging, however the Broncos did rest key men.

My opinion can change on the Cowboys, but I'm still waiting.

Bookies price: $15 My price: $18

* * *

CRONULLA SHARKS

Can they win it?: Not yet. Shane Flanagan has done a wonderful job, a coach of the year type performance, but this squad is still a couple of Todd Carneys away from being a Broncos or a Bulldogs. A top 4 finish would be exceptional, good times ahead.

Bookies price: $17 My price: $20

* * *

THE NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS

Can they win it? No. Talent says yes, but application says, no way. The Warriors have lost the balance in their game between discipline and natural attacking flair.

The young squad have struggled with heightened expectation and coach Brian McClennan has struggled with the week to week requirements of getting a side ready to play in the NRL.

Bookies price: $21 My price: $25

* * *

THE ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Can they win it?: No. This squad looks tired and members of the squad are starting to look old.

You have to respect the Dragons, they are a tough football team. Each game for them at the moment is a war to get the result.

They need new creative blood. Their lack of attack is putting a huge strain on their unquestionable grit in defence.

Bookies price: $51 My price: $60

* * *

THE GOLD COAST TITANS

Can they win it? No they can't, but given their circumstances a couple of months ago they would be happy to be in there, just fighting for a top 8 spot.

They have improved out of sight during the last month. Bird and Nate Myles are in terrific touch, while Scott Prince is once again re-engaging the defence.

Will be a difficult  team to play from here on in.

Bookies price: $101 My price: $90

* * *

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

Can they win it?: No. Much improved performance against the Tigers last week but given the expectations in March, a very disappointing campaign so far.

Last week Wayne Bennett had to threaten players with their careers to get them to show a bit of life. The players haven't handled the expectations Bennett has brought with him.

Bookies price: $150 My price: $150

* * *

THE SYDNEY ROOSTERS

Can they win it?: No way. Apart from being inconsistent, this squad have got too much going on. Releasing players, then not releasing them, is it any wonder they look flyblown?

They keep telling us they are building to something, but then keep knocking the building down.

Bookies price: $15 My price: $250

* * *

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Can they win it?: If I said yes I deserve to be put in a straight jacket. Things just go from bad to worse for this young squad who two years ago looked set for big things. Coach Dave Furner is under extreme pressure.

Bookies price: $250 My price: $500

* * *

PARRAMATTA EELS

Can they win it?: No. We see flickers of life but the priest is halfway through delivering the last rites.

Bookies price: $250 My price: $750

* * *

PENRITH PANTHERS

Can they win it?: Yes, if everybody else is caught cheating the salary cap.

Bookies price: $350 My price: $1000