‘High stakes game of snakes and ladders’: New data proves the 2023 NRL season is one of the tightest on record

The table is starting to look like a complicated game of snakes and ladders as new figures from the NRL prove just how tight the competition is.

Bradman Best was over the line but no chance of scoring. Picture; Scott Gardiner/Getty Images

Don’t panic if you’re struggling in tipping this year because it turns out we’re witnessing one of the tightest NRL seasons of all time, with clear favourites getting rolled every week.

The NRL released data on Monday afternoon that showed a staggering 35 per cent of games in 2023 have been won by the outsider, which explains why there have been so few perfect rounds in tipping.

Data shows that the 2023 season is one of the tightest on record, with plenty of games coming down to last-gasp moments like Scott Drinkwater’s try in golden point against Penrith. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

It’s not just the final results either, with a whopping 269 lead changes during games this year, up from 227 at the same time 12 months ago.

It’s why teams are sliding up and down the table like a high stakes game of snakes and ladders.

The Eels were winless after three rounds but are inside the top eight for the first time this year after a big win over Manly, and it’s not an anomaly given we’ve seen teams move inside or outside the top eight 38 times already this year, the most since 2015.

The gap between the Broncos and Wests Tigers is 14 points after 16 rounds – the third-closest season since 1982 based on the competition points spread between first and last.

Fans are clearly loving the closeness of the competition, with 2.24 million attending matches this season – the most in a decade – while the average attendance is up 25.7 per cent on 2022 crowds.

More than two million fans have attended NRL games this season. Picture; Scott Gardiner/Getty Images

And those fans aren’t leaving games early, with 74 matches decided by 0-12 points, the second most in the NRL era.

Plenty of games have been decided by big calls from the officials, which is why executive general manager of elite football Graham Annesley wanted to clarify an important rule at his weekly media briefing.

In a rare week free of controversy and no judiciary charges for the first time in five years, Annesley explained a key interpretation that led to two different rulings from the referees in round 16.

In the first, Roosters winger Junior Pauga was penalised for stripping Bradman Best, who was over the line but was no chance of scoring, while Parramatta’s Clint Gutherson was allowed to play on after he stole the ball off Taniela Paseka in a similar situation.

Clint Gutherson stole the ball off Taniela Paseka in the in-goal, but Graham Annesley says he should have been penalised. Picture; Matt King/Getty Images

Stealing the ball when there are two or more defenders in a tackle will always be a penalty, except if the player in possession is attempting to ground the ball for a try.

That’s been a rule for a while now, but Annesley wants to make sure everyone is on the same page and teams don’t start dragging attackers into the in-goal so they can hold a player up and steal the ball illegally when a try was never going to be scored.

“I’m not being overly critical of the referee here because one of the reasons we show incidents like this publicly is because we do want to educate clubs, players and fans about how these rules should be interpreted,” he said.

“We also want to make sure that we educate referees if there’s a difference of opinion about some of these matters.

“We’ve discussed this internally this morning with the referees coaching staff, and they’re going to go back and talk to all the referees about how this rule should be interpreted.”