MotoGP: Without his DNFs, Marc Marquez would have been leading the 2015 title heading to Valencia

MARC Marquez can’t win the MotoGP title this weekend but, had he used his head in 2015, he could instead have been the man to beat at Valencia.

MARC Marquez can’t win the MotoGP title this weekend but, had he used his head more in 2015, he could have been the man to beat at Valencia.

The 22-year-old prodigy lost his shot at a third-straight world championship with a succession of crashes throughout the season as he struggled with a Honda that was not handling as sweetly as the 2014 machine that conquered all before it.

In all, Marquez retired from six of the 17 races so far this season through crashes, including his controversial clash with Valentino Rossi in Malaysia.

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The Yamaha veteran leads the world championship heading to the season finale using an approach that differed starkly from Marquez’s — Rossi has finished every single race this year, and done so inside the top five.

Here’s how the points look heading into Valencia this weekend:

MotoGP World Championship points after 17 of 18 races:
1. Valentino Rossi — 312 points
2. Jorge Lorenzo — 305 points
3. Marc Marquez — 222 points

All of Marquez’s crashes — Malaysia excluded — came from trying too hard to extract victories from a bike that wasn’t capable of them.

But what would have happened if Marquez had adopted a more conservative approach, electing to take the points that were on offer instead of trying for a win that was not?

Let’s look at the six races where Marquez crashed to see what result he could have salvaged.

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ROUND 3 — ARGENTINA

This is where Marquez’s year properly started going downhill. Knowing he couldn’t outpace his rivals in a straight fight, Marquez and his team took a punt on running softer tyres in the hope of building an insurmountable lead in the early laps.

It looked that way initially, Marquez checking out to a lead of over four seconds. And then his tyres started to fade. Rossi caught him and pounced immediately, seizing the lead. As he tried to fight back, Marquez clipped the rear of Rossi’s bike and crashed out.

Actual result: DNF

The last time Marquez passed the start/finish line in Argentina.

So what if Marquez had accepted defeat, letting Rossi go and consolidating his position? The crash happened with a lap and a half remaining, the pair almost three seconds up the road from Andrea Dovizioso in third.

Marquez’s tyres were fading, while Dovi would not have eased off on the final lap had there been the carrot of second place dangling just up the road. At best Marquez could have finished second, but we can conservatively pencil him in for the final step of the podium.

Also, Marquez finishing would have pushed Lorenzo, struggling with rear tyre issues, down to sixth place.

Theoretical result: 3rd, 16 points

ROUND 6 — ITALY

Marquez was embroiled in a scrap for second with Iannone, Pedrosa and Rossi.

Marquez shocked all by failing to make it through to the second phase of qualifying, but a mercurial first lap saw him carve through to fourth. He’d run as high as second but would lose the spot to pole sitter Andrea Iannone.

Battling to hang onto the Ducati’s tail, Marquez bit the dust on Lap 18 with what would become a recurring theme in the next few races — a front-end lose that he simply couldn’t save.

Actual result: DNF

It was clear that Marquez was struggling, but had he backed off a notch and rode to the Honda’s limits at Mugello he may have just conceded one more spot to Rossi and finished one spot off the podium.

It’s easy to suggest that Pedrosa, recently returned from his arm-pump layoff and well outside title contention, may have deferred to the only Honda rider still capable of winning the championship.

Theoretical result: 4th, 13 points

ROUND 7 — CATALUNYA

Marquez pursues Lorenzo on the opening lap.

This time Marquez tasted the gravel much sooner, a mistake at the end of the back straight on Lap 4 seeing him plough off into the sand trap. The bike’s gearlever bent on impact with the ground, and that was race over.

Struggling with an ill-handling machine and watching his title hopes slip away, Marquez was throwing caution to the wind in pursuit of victory.

“Sure I can finish the race 20 seconds behind them but you know it is not my style,” he told Motomatters.com afterwards.

Actual result: DNF

20 seconds was the gap between eventual winner Lorenzo and the still-not-quite-fit Pedrosa in third. Even if Marquez had not been able to hold off Rossi, he would certainly have picked up a solid haul of points for the final rostrum spot.

Theoretical result: 3rd, 16 points

ROUND 12 — GREAT BRITAIN

Rossi and Marquez raced away in the early laps at Silverstone.

Although he arrived at Silverstone 52 points behind, Marquez believed he still had a slender shot at the title. But he knew he had to take risks and win virtually every remaining race on the calendar.

In a bid to do just that, he crashed out of second place in the wet race day conditions.

Actual result: DNF

Without his string of early-season crashes, Marquez would not have needed a victory so badly. A second placing, holding off the charging Danilo Petrucci, was more than possible.

Theoretical result: 2nd, 20 points

ROUND 14 — ARAGON

Marquez gave chase to a fast-starting Lorenzo at Aragon.

Lorenzo took the lead early and Marquez tried to give chase. Cue the 12566th front-end crash from the No. 93 Repsol Honda in season 2015.

Actual result: DNF

Would his early pace have taken its toll on his tyres, allowing Pedrosa and Rossi to nip past him in the closing stages? It could instead have been a staggering battle for second place.

Continuing the conservative estimate theme, let’s assume Marquez finishes at the tail of the trio in fourth.

Theoretical result: 4th, 13 points

ROUND 17 — SEPANG

So much has been said and written on Marquez and this race, but the salient point for this article is that he didn’t finish it after a clash with Rossi.

Actual result: DNF

We’ll never know, of course, if Marquez would have had the pace to pass and ride away from Rossi on merit. Continuing our conservative theme, let’s assume the No. 46 Yamaha was the better package on the day, its rider suitably motivated by the presence of his title rival up the road.

And, of course, Rossi wouldn’t have been accusing Marquez of trying to manipulate the title battle if he was in the thick of it himself at Phillip Island. Perhaps ‘the clash’ would never have happened ...

Theoretical result: 4th, 13 points

THE ALTERNATE POINTS TALLY

But for 6 DNFs, Marquez’s 2015 season would be poised very differently.

MotoGP World Championship points after 17 of 18 races:
1. Marc Marquez — 313 points
2. Valentino Rossi — 312 points
3. Jorge Lorenzo — 302 points

Marquez would have earnt 91 extra points simply by finishing the six races he crashed out of, vaulting him into a one-point lead over Rossi and 11 over Lorenzo heading to Valencia.

And that is just a conservative estimate.

Marquez could well have finished even higher in Argentina (2nd, beating Dovizioso), Aragon (2nd, beating both Pedrosa and Rossi) and Sepang (3rd, beating Rossi).

Extrapolate that parallel universe and you would have Marquez leading the championship on 327 points, 21 ahead of Rossi and 25 ahead of Lorenzo, with a third consecutive title a mere formality.

But, as the old cliche goes: “If ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ were candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas.”

The reality is that Marquez persisted with a ‘win or bust’ approach to almost every race, the exceptions being Jerez where he eased off with his injured hand, and Le Mans where two near-crashes convinced him to cool his jets.

The all-in approach drove him to some utterly supreme moments throughout the season — his Austin pole lap, his incredible victory at Phillip Island — but too often he has come unstuck, leaving him with precious little to celebrate come the 2015 festive season.

Originally published as MotoGP: Without his DNFs, Marc Marquez would have been leading the 2015 title heading to Valencia