Wildcard in three-horse race, Red Bull tipped to lose $215m prize in mega F1 ‘shift'

Daniel Ricciardo has been given a reality check as the urgency mounts at Red Bull amid a three-horse race to replace a struggling driver.

Red Bull are sticking with Sergio Perez for the rest of the Formula One season, but it might end up being blind faith that costs them the constructors’ championship.

F1 has headed off on its mid-season summer break after the rumour mill went into overdrive following the Belgian Grand Prix last weekend.

Australia's Daniel Ricciardo was seen chatting to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner and VCARB RB boss Laurent Mekies in footage many interpreted as a sign he would be replacing Perez at Red Bull.

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But those rumours were swiftly shut down when Horner said: “Checo remains a Red Bull Racing driver, despite all the speculation of late. We look forward to seeing him perform on circuits where he has done well before after the summer break.”

It’s doubtful the scrutiny on Perez will ease up in the second half of the season, with Red Bull making a rod for its own back by re-signing the Mexican on a two-year deal.

Here's how Red Bull's defending drivers' champion stacks up against his team mate 👊#[e-mail]/fZgYc3Ax4Z

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Max Verstappen is expected to narrowly win his fourth world title in a row, but Red Bull are fighting one on leg in the constructors’ championship due to Perez’s struggles, particularly in qualifying.

Red Bull risk losing the constructors’ championship. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

Verstappen hasn't won a Grand Prix since Spain five races ago, and Lando Norris trails by 78 points in the drivers’ standings.

With McLaren looking like the best car on the grid, Red Bull only leads the constructors’ championship by 42 points — an advantage that could disappear quickly.

Asked by news.com.au if he can see anyone overtake Red Bull to win the constructors’ championship and the lucrative prize, former F1 driver Johnny Herbert said: “Yes, I do.

“We are seeing that slight shift because Max is able to get those points, but who once again had probably the worst drive of the weekend? It was Sergio Perez,” said Herbert, per TopOffshoreSportsbooks.com.

“He had another really tough weekend. It’s so important George (Russell) and Lewis (Hamilton) are doing a good job, Oscar (Piastri) and Lando (Norris) are doing a job. Carlos (Sainz) has done a good job and Charles (Leclerc) is always there and thereabouts.

“The one team that has a weakness is Red Bull because of Sergio. That helps the other teams especially Merc and McLaren because both their drivers are getting points.

“Lewis is potentially going to be a threat as well because Mercedes is getting stronger. I think it’s getting very closer to seeing the best of Lewis once again.

“All that is going to make Max’s job harder. He’s going to have pressure he hasn’t had for a couple of years. That’s great for us. That’s exactly what we want to see, drivers under pressure. We know Max will pull it out of the bag when he has to, we know Lewis, George, Lando and Oscar do the same thing.

“It’s great we have this wonderful mix at the moment.”

The winning team gets 14 per cent of F1’s prize pot — last year Red Bull reportedly was awarded USA$140 million (A$215 million) for finishing on top of the constructors' standings.

The heat is on Sergio Perez. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

Piastri ‘maturing’ before our eyes

Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are forming a formidable driver pairing, with 14 podium finishes between them already this season.

Herbert believes with 10 races left, McLaren have a strong chance to overtake Red Bull in the constructors’, such is the strength of their two drivers.

“Oscar had another good race. What’s wonderful for McLaren is they’ve got two drivers who are really able to get the best out of that car,” he said.

“Oscar had another strong start, strong first lap, strong race — and that’s only a very strong thing for McLaren.

“What’s good for McLaren is both drivers are pushing each other. I think that’s going be an important part of this rise we’re seeing, to keep that momentum going. At the moment they still seem to have the fastest car.

“I think at the end of the day, Oscar is really maturing brilliantly and it’s lovely to see that McLaren have that man on their books.”

McLaren are closing in on Red Bull. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)

Tensions inevitably come to the surface in strong teams (think Webber-Vettel, Hamilton-Rosberg), and Herbert said McLaren erred by not letting Norris win in Hungary.

“There is a point where it is going to happen," he said about Norris and Piastri eventually becoming championship rivals.

“Max didn’t have a good weekend (in Hungary). It would have been nice for Lando to get those points in Hungary that would have got him closer to Max.

“There is going to be a point where you’d hope they’d give Lando the chance to go for the world drivers’ championship because that’s going to be a big thing for a driver.

“The constructors is always something that’ll come to you anyway. You allow the drivers to do their job, the points will always come.”

Daniel Ricciardo’s F1 career is still alive, for now. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images)

Has Ricciardo ‘earned’ Red Bull recall?

With Carlos Sainz signing with Williams, Ricciardo, his teammate Yuki Tsunoda and reserve driver Liam Lawson are the three options to replace Perez if Red Bull decided to pull the plug on the Mexican.

Speaking before the news Red Bull was sticking with Perez, Herbert said the team faced a tough call with the Mexican and urged them to give Tsunoda a go as Verstappen’s teammate after four seasons in the junior team.

“It’s a damn hard one,” Herbert said of the candidates to replace Perez.

“Daniel’s had a tough time of it over the past couple of years. He’s done better, I must admit, but he hasn’t still quite been able to totally take control of the situation at RB. Yuki has really done a good job.

“Has he earned it, Daniel? This is just me, I think give Yuki a go, the younger one.

“Daniel’s sort of had that chance and hasn’t quite done enough. That’s just only what I’ve seen on track. He’s done better but Yuki has been strong in qualifying this season and he’s raced better as well.

Yuki Tsunoda is in his fourth year at Red Bull’s feeder team. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images)

“Then throw Liam into the mix as well. He was able to replace Daniel and do a good job, so why wouldn’t you give him a go?

“Now which one is the bigger risk in a high pressure situation? That’s always something we’ve seen historically with (Alex) Albon and (Pierre) Gasly come in and struggle.

“Those drivers didn’t quite seem able to absorb all the pressure that was there. They were young, sometimes they need that extra experience to get the best out of themselves.

“Who would I put in? I think I’d still go with Yuki at the moment. I think he’s feisty enough but I’d understand if you’d go for experience with Daniel as well.

“I just feel he’s not in the position to dig deep up against Max, like he has done but that was such a long time ago.”

The F1 season resumes on August 25 at the Dutch Grand Prix, which Verstappen has won the past three years.