‘Licking their lips’: Video clip proves England ploy all part of the plan

The bookies predict Australia will comfortably win the Ashes, and understandably so – but don’t put your money on a whitewash just yet.

The bookies predict Australia will comfortably win the 2021/22 Ashes, and understandably so – England has not won a Test match down under in nearly 11 years.

It’s almost impossible to win a Test without taking 20 wickets, something England’s bowlers have only achieved twice in their last 10 Tests in Australia.

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Joe Root’s men are coming off three consecutive Test series defeats, and only two members of their touring squad have tasted victory on Australian soil.

But despite what the numbers suggest, don’t put your money on a 5-0 whitewash just yet – England’s strategic workload management and some assistance from a once-in-a-decade climate phenomenon mean their bowlers are primed to decimate Australia’s top-order this summer.

After reports emerged on Tuesday that veteran paceman James Anderson had been ruled out of the Gabba Test due to a calf complaint, the England & Wales Cricket Board clarified he wouldn’t feature in the series opener due to precautionary reasons.

“Jimmy is fit, he’s been bowling for a while. He bowled well in the nets yesterday, and he’s bowling again today,” England wicketkeeper Jos Buttler told reporters on Tuesday.

“It’s just a precautionary measure with an incredibly long series ahead, I think the guys are just playing it a little bit safe.”

Footage later emerged of Anderson bowling at full pelt in the Brisbane nets, proving injury was not a factor in the decision.

After an aborted attempt at trying his hand at left-arm spin, James Anderson is back bowling at full tilt to Jos Buttler at the Gabba nets. The decision to not play him in the first #Ashes Test must be a precautionary pic.twitter.com/wvUmbwEOW3

— Bharat Sundaresan (@beastieboy07) December 7, 2021

Anderson is approaching his 40th birthday, and it would be difficult for him to play all five Tests this summer. England’s selectors will also be wary of what happened to Anderson in 2019, where he broke down 30 minutes into the first Ashes Test at Edgbaston and didn’t return for the remainder of the series.

It’s therefore understandable England will employ a rotation policy for the upcoming series – something the Australians did successfully in the 2019 series.

“There will be a rotation policy,” former England bowler and Fox Cricket commentator Isa Guha told news.com.au.

“To expect a group of bowlers to be able to go five Tests in a gruelling Ashes series, that’s perhaps stretching things a little bit.

“And I think Australia are going to operate under the same policy.”

England will carefully manage the workload of their bowlers over the coming six weeks, ensuring the seamers only play at grounds that suit their bowling style, where their skills are most effective.

For example, in four Ashes matches at the Gabba, Anderson has taken seven wickets at a pitiful average of 75.14. The 39-year-old has never taken more than two wickets in a Test innings in the Queensland capital.

James Anderson Test bowling average at Australian venues

MCG – 24.23

SCG – 29.00

Adelaide Oval – 29.50

Gabba – 75.14

James Anderson has a horrific record at the Gabba. Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images

However, Anderson will be readying himself for the pink-ball Test in Adelaide, where he ran riot four years ago.

Under lights at Adelaide Oval in 2017, the right-armer made Australia’s top-order look foolish during the twilight session of day three. Anderson claimed 5/43 in 22 overs as the hosts were rolled for 138 – no Australian scored more than 20.

For Root’s men to have any chance of reclaiming the coveted urn, Anderson will need to replicate that performance in the South Australian capital next week.

And following reports the fifth Test could also be a day-night fixture, England will be desperate for Anderson to remain fit through to mid-January.

Meanwhile, the English seamer most likely to make an impact at the Gabba is Mark Wood, renowned for consistently bowling above 145km/h. The 31-year-old boasts a Test bowling average of 23.93 on foreign soil, and he will be eager to work his magic on the bouncy Brisbane deck.

With the dangerous Jofra Archer and Olly Stone sidelined due to injury, Wood’s extra pace will be crucial on Australia’s flat decks.

“When you go to Australia, you want intimidating bowlers to take on Australia, as much as they intimidate everyone else that comes over,” Guha said.

“They’ll be wrapping Mark Wood in cotton wool, that’s for sure.”

Weather anomaly plays into England’s hands

Last month, the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed La Nina had returned for the 2021/22 summer, meaning Australia’s eastern states will be peppered with rain and experience cooler climates over the coming weeks.

La Nina is a major influencer of Australia’s weather, and its return virtually guarantees a soggier summer – on the east coast particularly – as well as lower temperatures. The Gabba Test is expected to be affected by rain, while Sydney’s New Year’s Test has become infamous for its relentless rain delays.

However, these cooler temperatures may work in England’s favour. Cloud cover provides an ideal environment for swing bowling – turbulence caused by hot air under sunlight is reduced and seamers have greater control of the ball’s movement, and there’s arguably no pace attack better at exploiting such conditions than England.

England’s Mark Wood. Photo by Zac Goodwin/PA Images via Getty Images

“England will be licking their lips if they get any sign of greenness on that surface,” two-time Ashes winner Steve Harmison told news.com.au, speaking on behalf of IndiaBetting.co.in.

“In Brisbane, if there is a bit of cloud cover, a bit of movement in the surface, Broad will be fancying his chances.

“If there’s anything in the surface laterally, England have probably got better bowlers to exploit that.

“These first two matches might just work in England’s benefit, rather than in Australia’s benefit. If England can hit the ground running, they’ve got a chance of making early inroads in this series.”

The other factor that could work in England’s favour is the revamped Kookaburra ball. The company’s manufacturers have added a plastic lining under the leather following Cricket Australia’s request for the ball to offer more movement for bowlers.

As revealed by The Age, this will keep the Kookaburra moving through the air and off the seam in a more sustained manner, replicating the Duke ball used in England.

“The ball will not look or feel any different to existing Kookaburra balls, and has the same weight, shape and seam as the iconic Kookaburra Turf ball,” CA and Kookaburra said in November 2019.

“The difference lies in an updated lining of the leather, which is designed to increase the resilience of the seam, having it stay harder for longer.”