Nightmare, dream runs for AFL contenders as Rounds 16-23 locked in

The AFL has confirmed the rest of this seaon’s fixture, with contending teams dealt mixed fortunes as one day was ditched altogether.

See the Rounds 16 to 23 fixture.

Carlton and Geelong are poised to surge into September, while Essendon must survive a nightmare run to fulfil its finals dream as the fixture for the final months of the season is locked in.

On Tuesday afternoon the AFL confirmed the fixture for Rounds 16 to 23, while the Round 24 finale will be locked in closer to the time, allowing the league to maximise pre-finals intrigue.

The first 14 weeks of the season will feature a Thursday night game, but there will be no Thursday night footy from Round 16 to Round 23.

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The Blues have the easiest last nine games of any team, according to Foxfooty.com.au’s analysis, which is based on the average percentage of their opponents in those fixtures.

While Michael Voss’ men will battle contenders GWS (Engie), Port Adelaide (Marvel) and Collingwood (MCG) plus a Bulldogs side with a very strong percentage (Marvel), they also get very winnable games against Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (Marvel), Hawthorn (MCG), West Coast (Optus) and St Kilda (Marvel) - the latter three games ending the season.

The Cats, with the second-easiest draw, have four games at the Cattery including visits by Hawthorn and West Coast, plus games against North Melbourne (Hobart) and St Kilda (Marvel).

Essendon have copped a tough draw, while Carlton play most of their remaining games in Melbourne.

The Blues and Cats are the only true contenders in the group of six easiest fixtures.

In contrast the Bombers, who have a relatively easy run into the bye weeks, will want to bank their wins early. They face four current top-eight teams in their last nine games but also dangerous sides outside the eight like Adelaide, Fremantle, Gold Coast and Brisbane; though on the plus side they have just one game (Round 24 vs Brisbane) interstate.

The draw is also commercially favourable with plenty of primetime fixtures.

Adelaide and Brisbane’s slow starts to the year are compounded by their difficult draws to end the season, ranking second and fourth-hardest, while Port Adelaide - after passing a big test against Geelong last Friday night - will need to pass even more of them with the third-toughest run.

WHO HAS THE HARDEST RUN HOME?

1. Essendon (113.2%)

2. Adelaide Crows (111.6%)

3. Port Adelaide (109.4%)

4. Brisbane Lions (108.3%)

5. Western Bulldogs (105.9%)

6. Collingwood (105.9%)

7. North Melbourne (105.8%)

8. Melbourne (105.6%)

9. Fremantle (104.7%)

10. St Kilda (103.8%)

11. GWS Giants (101.5%)

12. Sydney Swans (100.7%)

13. West Coast Eagles (99.9%)

14. Richmond (99.4%)

15. Hawthorn (96.3%)

16. Gold Coast Suns (94.9%)

17. Geelong (93.6%)

18. Carlton (92.3%)

Based on average percentage of opponents across Rounds 16-24

See the full Rounds 16-23 fixture below.

AFL FIXTURE (Rounds 16-23, all times AEST)

Broadcasters listed are for Victoria

Round 16

Friday June 28

Brisbane Lions v Melbourne, Gabba, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Saturday June 29

Sydney Swans v Fremantle, SCG, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood, People First Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)

Geelong v Essendon, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Sunday June 30

St Kilda v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 1:10pm (Foxtel)

Richmond v Carlton, MCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)

West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)

Round 17

Friday July 5

Collingwood v Essendon, MCG, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Saturday July 6

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

North Melbourne v Gold Coast Suns, Marvel Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Geelong v Hawthorn, GMHBA Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

GWS Giants v Carlton, ENGIE Stadium, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Fremantle v Richmond, Optus Stadium, 8:10pm (Foxtel)

Sunday July 7

Melbourne v West Coast Eagles, MCG, 1:10pm (Foxtel)

St Kilda v Sydney Swans, Marvel Stadium, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows, Gabba, 4:10pm (Foxtel)

Round 18

Friday July 12

Collingwood v Geelong, MCG, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Saturday July 13

Sydney Swans v North Melbourne, SCG, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Hawthorn v Fremantle, UTAS Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Western Bulldogs v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

Adelaide Crows v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)

Melbourne v Essendon, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Sunday July 14

Gold Coast Suns v Port Adelaide, People First Stadium, 1:10pm (Foxtel)

Richmond v GWS Giants, MCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)

West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions, Optus Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)

Round 19

Friday July 19

Essendon v Adelaide Crows, Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Saturday July 20

St Kilda v West Coast Eagles, Marvel Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

GWS Giants v Gold Coast Suns, ENGIE Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Hawthorn v Collingwood, MCG, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

Geelong v Western Bulldogs, GMHBA Stadium, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)

Sunday July 21

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans, Gabba, 1:10pm (Foxtel)

Fremantle v Melbourne, Optus Stadium, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Carlton v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)

Round 20

Friday July 26 (Paris Olympics begin)

Carlton v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Saturday July 27

North Melbourne v Geelong, Blundstone Arena, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

St Kilda v Essendon, Marvel Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

Gold Coast Suns v Brisbane Lions, People First Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

Melbourne v GWS Giants, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Fremantle v West Coast Eagles, Optus Stadium, 8:10pm (Foxtel)

Sunday July 28

Collingwood v Richmond, MCG, 1:10pm (Foxtel)

Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs, SCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Adelaide Crows v Hawthon, Adelaide Oval, 4:10pm (Foxtel)

Round 21

Friday August 2

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 7:15pm (Foxtel/Seven)

West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns, Optus Stadium, 8:30pm (Foxtel)

Saturday August 3

North Melbourne v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Geelong v Adelaide Crows, GMHBA Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)

Collingwood v Carlton, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Sunday August 4

GWS Giants v Hawthorn, Manuka Oval, 1:10pm (Foxtel)

Essendon v Fremantle, MCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)

St Kilda v Brisbane Lions, Marvel Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)

Round 22

Friday August 9

Sydney Swans v Collingwood, SCG, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Saturday August 10

North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles, Blundstone Arena, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Brisbane Lions v GWS Giants, Gabba, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Fremantle v Geelong, Optus Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

Melbourne v Port Adelaide, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Essendon v Gold Coast Suns, Marvel, 7:30pm (Foxtel)

Sunday August 11

Carlton v Hawthorn, MCG, 1:10pm (Foxtel)

Richmond v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 4:10pm (Foxtel)

Round 23

Friday August 16

Essendon v Sydney Swans, Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Saturday August 17

Gold Coast Suns v Melbourne, Heritage Bank Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

GWS Giants v Fremantle, ENGIE Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)

Collingwood v Brisbane Lions, MCG, 4:35pm (Foxtel)

St Kilda v Geelong, Marvel Stadium, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)

Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)

Sunday August 18

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 1:10pm (Foxtel)

Hawthorn v Richmond, MCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)

West Coast Eagles v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)

Round 24

Dates TBC

Brisbane Lions v Essendon, Gabba

Carlton v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium

Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium

Geelong v West Coast Eagles, GMHBA Stadium

Hawthorn v North Melbourne, UTAS Stadium

Melbourne v Collingwood, MCG

Richmond v Gold Coast Suns, MCG

Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows, SCG

Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants, Mars Stadium

Originally published as Nightmare, dream runs for AFL contenders as Rounds 16-23 locked in