Matt Windley looks at each team's run home and the finals make-up

MATT WINDLEY pulls apart every club's run home and predicts where your team will finish.

WAITING for finals or planning your September holidays? MATT WINDLEY pulls apart every club's run home and predicts where your team will finish on the ladder.

RECAP MATTY'S CHAT IN THE BLOG WINDOW MID-WAY DOWN THE STORY

1. HAWTHORN
60pts 136.7%
R20: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium
R21: Collingwood, MCG
R22: North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
R23: Sydney, ANZ Stadium
Matt says: Hawthorn's loss to Richmond could have been fatal for its minor premiership chances had it not been coupled with a Geelong defeat the night before. Top spot is still the Hawks' to lose, but they will have to win their next three games to make sure Round 23 against Sydney isn't a virtual playoff for first. Could still finish as low as fourth with another surprise defeat.

2. SYDNEY
58pts 143.3%
R20: Collingwood, ANZ Stadium
R21: St Kilda, SCG
R22: Geelong, Simonds Stadium
R23: Hawthorn, ANZ Stadium
Matt says: Extremely tough run home for Sydney made tougher again by Collingwood's apparent return to form. Trip to Geelong to take on the Cats shapes as the most defining game on the Swans roster. A win at Simonds Stadium should see the Swans finish in the top two - earning two home finals and an easier path to a second consecutive Grand Final - while it would also give John Longmire's men a chance at finishing on top. On the flip side, losses to two of the Pies, Cats and Hawks would likely see the Swans tumble to fourth.

3. GEELONG
56pts 133.8%
R20: Port Adelaide, Simonds Stadium
R21: West Coast, Patersons Stadium
R22: Sydney, Simonds Stadium
R23: Brisbane Lions, Simonds Stadium
Matt says: The loss to North Melbourne was a wake-up call no doubt, but Hawthorn's loss the following day keeps Geelong's quest for top still alive. The Cats should easily account for Port Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane Lions, meaning the Round 22 showdown with Sydney is key in deciding whether the Cats finish top two - and potentially remain in Victoria for the whole of September - or not. Finishing third or fourth would likely see the Cats travel to Sydney or Perth to take on the Swans or Dockers at some stage during the finals. Percentage key in jostling for position with Hawks.

JPod

4. FREMANTLE
54pts 124.2%
R20: Greater Western Sydney, Patersons Stadium
R21: Melbourne, MCG
R22: Port Adelaide, Patersons Stadium
R23: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium
Matt says: No one expects Fremantle to drop another game given it plays the bottom three teams in the comp plus Port Adelaide at home. That means top four is already a lock for the Dockers, now they must wait to see how results unfold in regards to their chances of taking one of those vital top two slots on the ladder. Top spot is not out of the question, but Hawthorn would need to lose to both Collingwood and Sydney for that to happen. Taking second is still a realistic chance; Geelong could quite easily lose to Sydney, even at the Cattery, while the Swans still have other tricky fixtures against the Pies and Hawks to account for. The Swans have a 19 per cent gap on the Dockers as things stand, but Ross Lyon's men could easily eclipse that with huge wins against the Giants, Demons and Saints. Two home finals for Freo would almost gift the club its first Grand Final appearance.

5. ESSENDON
52pts 117.4%
R20: West Coast, Etihad Stadium
R21: North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
R22: Carlton, MCG
R23: Richmond, MCG
Matt says: After such an admirable season in the face of unprecedented scrutiny, are the wheels finally starting to fall off the Essendon bandwagon? In 2011 it all fell apart after Round 9, last year it was Round 15. Consecutive heavy losses to Hawthorn and Collingwood will have set off alarm bells at Windy Hill. And with games against a resurgent North Melbourne as well as arch-enemies Carlton and Richmond still to come, you'd have to say it is likely the Bombers will now slip behind at least Richmond in the pecking order before September comes around. That would almost certainly pit the Bombers and Pies together in an epic elimination final at the MCG.

6. COLLINGWOOD
48pts 115.5%
R20: Sydney, ANZ Stadium
R21: Hawthorn, MCG
R22: West Coast, MCG
R23: North Melbourne, MCG
Matt says: The form Collingwood displayed against Essendon is good enough to beat most sides - potentially even win the premiership - but games against Sydney and Hawthorn stand between the Magpies and any further progression up the ladder. The Pies should take it up to those two sides based on the weekend's form, but recent history suggests the Swans and Hawks currently have the measure of Nathan Buckley's men. With that in mind, it's hard to see the Pies moving out of that sixth-seventh bracket which will likely see it lie in waiting for either of Richmond or the Bombers in a massive elimination final in front of upwards of 95,000 on Sunday, September 9.

7. RICHMOND
48pts 115.5%
R20: Brisbane Lions, MCG
R21: Carlton, MCG
R22: Greater Western Sydney, Skoda Stadium
R23: Essendon, MCG
Matt says: They said a run of matches against Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn would be season-defining - how true that turned out to be. Not only is Richmond now certain of playing in its first finals series since 2001, it will likely head in to September as one of the competition's form teams and a legitimate contender for the premiership. Anything's possible if the Tigers play like they did against the Hawks for the rest of the year. Damien Hardwick's men have the draw to be able to win their last four games on the trot, which would likely mean a fifth-placed finish awaits. That would be huge, as the reward for finishing fifth is likely to be a home final against Port Adelaide.

Ollie Wines

8. PORT ADELAIDE
44pts 108.6%
R20: Geelong, Simonds Stadium
R21: Gold Coast, AAMI Stadium
R22: Fremantle, Patersons Stadium
R23: Carlton, AAMI Stadium
Matt says: With a the most unlikely of off-breaks, Port Adelaide's finals chances went from hanging in the balance to near certainty. Simplistically, home wins against Gold Coast and Carlton will seal the deal, but the Blues may still loom as the last remaining challenger. Let's assume the Power defeats the Suns and loses to both Geelong and Fremantle away, that would set up a do-or-die Round 23 showdown with the Blues if they were to win two of their next three games. Is that likely? Well you'd say they will beat the Western Bulldogs, probably lose to Richmond - meaning the Power will be keeping a very close eye on proceedings between the Blues and Bombers at the MCG in Round 22.

RECAP MATTY'S CHAT IN THE WINDOW BELOW:



9. CARLTON
36pts 109.8%
R20: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium
R21: Richmond, MCG
R22: Essendon, MCG
R23: Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium
Matt says: The Gods conspired against Carlton this weekend. A loss to Fremantle coupled with Port Adelaide's get out of jail act against Adelaide put the Blues well and truly on the ropes. As mentioned above, Carlton's only way of making the finals is if its Round 23 clash with Port Adelaide has the prize of eighth spot on the line - outside of Essendon losing its points. If Port plays to form and loses to Geelong and Fremantle, but defeats Gold Coast then the Blues will have to win two of their next three against the Western Bulldogs, Richmond and Bombers. On current form its shaping up to be a crucial night at the MCG on August 24 where a win against the Dons will keep the hopes of Mick Malthouse's men alive.

10. NORTH MELBOURNE
32pts 122.8%
R20: Adelaide, AAMI Stadium
R21: Essendon, Etihad Stadium
R22: Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium
R23: Collingwood, MCG
Matt says: Many a finalist would be glad North Melbourne isn't likely to feature in this year's finals series given the form it showed in defeating Geelong on Friday night. Realistically the Kangaroos are only going to make the finals if they finish ninth and Essendon is docked points. To do that, the Roos may only have to win two games - most likely to come against Adelaide and the Bombers. But given North's difficult draw, and the fact Carlton may still be playing for eighth in the final rounds, 10th spot would have to be the bookies favourite for the time being.
 

Scott Selwood

11. WEST COAST
32pts 103.5%
R20: Essendon, Etihad Stadium
R21: Geelong, Patersons Stadium
R22: Collingwood, MCG
R23: Adelaide, Patersons Stadium
Matt says: Like North Melbourne, West Coast is playing only for ninth, but to even get that high would require a major form reversal.

12. BRISBANE LIONS
32pts 85.1%
R20: Richmond, MCG
R21: Greater Western Sydney, Gabba
R22: Western Bulldogs, Gabba
R23: Geelong, Simonds Stadium
Matt says: Like North Melbourne and West Coast, the Brisbane Lions too are only playing for ninth. Should be good enough to defeat Greater Western Sydney and Western Bulldogs at home, but lowly percentage means a surprise win against Richmond or Geelong will be required to put the club in the running.

13. ADELAIDE
28pts 100.6%
R20: North Melbourne, AAMI Stadium
R21: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium
R22: Melbourne, AAMI Stadium
R23: West Coast, Patersons Stadium
Matt says: The Angus Monfries miracle goal in the Showdown pretty much summed up the twists and turns of Adelaide's season. Has been clearly good enough when up and going, but short on personnel for much of the year.

14. GOLD COAST
24pts 88%
R20: Melbourne, Metricon Stadium
R21: Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium
R22: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium
R23: Greater Western Sydney, Metricon Stadium
Matt says: Champion Data says Gold Coast, along with Fremantle, has the easiest run home of any side in the competition. The Suns will start as favourites against Melbourne, St Kilda and Greater Western Sydney, but a win against Port Adelaide would be high on Guy McKenna's agenda given it will shape the eight and make a massive statement of intent coming in to next year.

15. WESTERN BULLDOGS
20pts 79%
R20: Carlton, Etihad Stadium
R21: Adelaide, Etihad Stadium
R22: Brisbane Lions, Gabba
R23: Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
Matt says: Battled admirably against Sydney on the weekend and will fancy its chances against Carlton in what is the last game the Western Bulldogs have that can shape the destiny of this year's premiership race.

16. ST KILDA
12pts 78.7%
R20: Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium
R21: Sydney, SCG
R22: Gold Coast, Etihad Stadium
R23: Fremantle, Etihad Stadium
Matt says: St Kilda just praying for the season to be over - but it will be a slow and painful death for the Saints given they play three of the competition's top four sides in the final month.

17. MELBOURNE
8pts 53.6%
R20: Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium
R21: Fremantle, MCG
R22: Adelaide, AAMI Stadium
R23: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium
Matt says: The wooden spoon is still not out of the question for a Melbourne side that won't win another game this year based on last weekend's output.

18. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
4pts 54.6%
R20: Fremantle, Patersons Stadium
R21: Brisbane Lions, Gabba
R22: Richmond, Skoda Stadium
R23: Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium
Matt says: Great to see Greater Western Sydney chalk up its first win of the season last week, now the only interest in its season is to see whether it can snag another win to hand off the wooden spoon to Melbourne. Realistically the Giants win tally isn't going to be added to in the next three weeks, only a Round 23 clash with Gold Coast provides any glimmer of hope for an upset.

Andrew Walker

MATT WINDLEY'S PREDICTED LADDER:
1. Hawthorn 18-4
2. Geelong 18-4
3. Sydney 17-1-4
4. Fremantle 17-1-4
5. Richmond 16-6
6. Essendon 15-7
7. Collingwood 14-8
8. Port Adelaide 13-9
--------
9. North Melbourne 10-12
10. Carlton 10-12
11. Brisbane Lions 10-12
12. West Coast 9-13
13. Gold Coast 9-13
14. Adelaide 8-14
15. Western Bulldogs 7-15
16. St Kilda 3-19
17. Melbourne 2-20
18. Greater Western Sydney 1-21

Which would mean ...

WEEK 1 FINALS:
Hawthorn v Fremantle, MCG
Geelong v Sydney, Etihad Stadium
Richmond v Port Adelaide, MCG
Essendon v Collingwood, MCG

WEEK 2 FINALS:
Loser of Haw v Frem // winner of Rich v P.A
Loser of Geel v Syd // winner of Ess v Coll