Geelong champ Paul Chapman may be forced out as Cats assess ageing list

JON Anderson looks at why Paul Chapman is struggling for his footballing life at the Cats, and what rivals may offer a lifeline.

HOW does a player such as Paul Chapman, who sits comfortably in his team's best 22, suddenly find himself struggling for his footballing life?

Geelong has yet to make a final decision on the futures of Joel Corey, James Podsiadly, Josh Hunt and Chapman but is expected to release a statement in the coming days.

Coach Chris Scott was keen to let the dust settle from the epic preliminary final loss to Hawthorn, a game Chapman missed due to suspension.

Chapman, 31, has made it clear to the club his preferred option is to remain a one-team player and believes his form this year, when available, was good enough to suggest he can go on.

To highlight his plight, it's best to closely analyse his 2013 form in the eight games he played - two of which saw him start as a substitute which reduces his overall figures.

Of the players to average over 20.3 disposals, only 10 averaged more goals while "Chappy" also boasted a healthy assist rate.

So why is his future at Geelong even a topic for debate, give comparisons can't be made with players such as Alan Didak and Darren Jolly, who no longer commanded a regular senior position?

The reality is Chapman finds himself in the most dangerous territory, an ageing player with dodgy hamstrings at a club that has five 30-plus veterans on its list, with a further three to turn 30 next year.

Chappy and Pods

Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie, Hamish McIntosh, Jarred Rivers and Matthew Stokes will reach the same milestone in 2015 so the Geelong hierarchy is acutely aware of implementing a succession plan.

To do so they have to be confident of the up and comers, Josh Caddy and Cam Guthrie being two that have truly emerged. The club is positive Caddy can provide a contested ball alternative to Joel Corey.

Guthrie is the sure-ball handling and sound decision-maker that Corey Enright has always been, but from there on it isn't as clear cut.

Expect Josh Cowan, Taylor Hunt and Jordan Murdoch to be given every senior opportunity in 2014, while George Horlin-Smith, Jordan Schroder and Billie Smedts failed to make compelling senior statements in the VFL Grand Final.

There is no reason for the Cats not to think they can challenge again next year, but do they believe Chapman needs to be part of that?

The answer is increasingly leaning towards no, even if the player is prepared to take a substantial pay cut, say from around the $400,000 mark to a base $150,000 with a performance-based onus.

Chappy at training

HOW CHAPPY MAY FIT AT ANOTHER CLUB:

Carlton

Almost resigned to losing Eddie Betts but likely to bring in Dale Thomas on good money. And possibly Taylor Adams. Haven't discussed Chapman but a case of "never say never".

Collingwood

Highly unlikely. Having brought in some older players with mixed results in recent times the Pies want to get games into players such as Alex Fasolo and Jamie Elliott.

Essendon

Unlikely given they went down the mature-aged recruit path with Brendon Goddard last year, even if the move was an unqualified success.

Hawthorn

Would walk into Hawks line-up on Saturday but that doesn't mean the Hawks would recruit him. At 32 when next season starts may not suit list management policy. A loss on Saturday may sway thinking.

Chappy 250

Melbourne

Paul Roos has said his club will look at all available players. And for a club where player development has been next to non-existent and leadership not much better, Chapman's experience could be invaluable.

North Melbourne

Kangaroos have already expressed interest in soon-to-be 30-year-old Nick Dal Santo, so Chapman would seem a possible fit, particularly if Eddie Betts chooses Adelaide.

Richmond

The Tigers need small forwards and an extra hard-nut around the stoppages. The Tigers won't have to give anything up for him. So where’s the problem?

St Kilda

Possibly not a matter of if the Saints would go for him but more a matter of would Chapman want to extend his career at a club that is not going to be playing finals in the next two seasons.

Western Bulldogs

Coach Brendan McCartney has been steadfast in his commitment to developing youth and Dogs are keen to get games into their pups. Daniel Giansiracusa playing on could also sway thinking.