Footy Form: AFL Round 8 tips, best bets and TAB Market Movers
Round 8 is here and some blockbuster matches are set to excite.We take a look at every game from a punter’s perspective to try and find you a winner. Plus, see all this week’s TAB Market Movers.
Round 8 is here and some blockbuster matches are on the cards.
We take a look at every game from a punter’s perspective to try and find you a winner.
Plus, scroll down to see who have been this week’s TAB Market Movers.
GWS GIANTS v RICHMOND
Giants Stadium, Friday 7.50pm
Given the Tigers’ injury woes, GWS looks the better side on paper – but the Giants haven’t been playing like a top side.
They rank last in the competition for inside-50s and defensively are conceding an average of 68 points a game – the fifth-worst in the league.
Richmond has won its past two games against the Giants, including last year’s Grand Final by 89 points.
The Tigers have also won their past three games and rediscovered their groove.
While still undermanned, I like Richmond to win by 1-39 points at $2.60.
TAB ODDS: GWS GIANTS $1.65 RICHMOND $2.30
Moneyball: Richmond has attracted 57 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
CHASING THE MONEY
– RICHMOND is coming off three consecutive wins including a 54-point belting of North Melbourne last week.
– GWS has lost its past two games and has fallen in four of its past six games overall.
– THE Tigers scored an 89-point win when these sides last met in the 2019 Grand Final.
– RICHMOND has won its past two games against the Giants, but lost the previous two encounters before that.
– THE Giants hold a 3-2 record at Giants Stadium this season, after going 7-2 at the venue last year.
– THE Tigers have lost their past three games at Giants Stadium, but are 3-3 at the venue overall since 2012.
– RICHMOND’S defence ranks third for average points against this season, while the Giants’ defence ranks equal-13th.
– RICHMOND ranks third for inside-50s, with GWS last.
FRIDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
Greater Western Sydney’s Lachie Whitfield 25+ disposals and Richmond’s Dustin Martin 1+ goals is $4.
NORTH MELBOURNE v CARLTON
Gabba, Saturday 1.05pm
The Blues appear to have finally arrived.
They were unlucky to lose after the siren to Port Adelaide last week but had thumped the Western Bulldogs the week before and should have no trouble doing the same to a depleted Kangaroos.
North has an injury list longer than Ben Brown’s run up, and has kicked a combined 14 goals from its past three games including two against Richmond last week.
Expect the Blues to beat the Roos for the first time since 2014.
TAB ODDS: NORTH MELBOURNE $2.55 CARLTON $1.52
Moneyball: Carlton has attracted 93 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
SYDNEY v HAWTHORN
SCG, Saturday 3.35pm
Two teams that are desperate for a win, the Hawks coming off three straight losses and the Swans off four.
There were at least some better signs in attack for Sydney last week, kicking nine goals against Gold Coast.
The Hawks, on the other hand, managed just seven goals against Melbourne after kicking only three against Collingwood the previous week.
The Swans scored a 19-point win when the sides met last year and I think they can do it again at home.
TAB ODDS: SYDNEY $2.25 HAWTHORN $1.67
Moneyball: Hawthorn has attracted 53 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
PORT ADELAIDE v ST KILDA
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7.40pm
Two of the most attacking teams in the competition, this game promises to be anything but a low-scoring, dour affair.
The Saints bounced back against bottom-of-the-table Adelaide last week, but ladder-leader Port presents a much greater challenge.
The Power have won six of their seven games this season, and have defensively conceded more than nine goals just once. They also rank No. 1 for inside-50s and have a forward line that is firing.
Consider the Power by 1-39 points at $1.85.
TAB ODDS: PORT ADELAIDE $1.40 ST KILDA $3
Moneyball: Port Adelaide has attracted 71 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
ADELAIDE V ESSENDON
Adelaide Oval, Sunday 1.05pm
The Bombers were poor last week and still have a missing cog in their midfield in Dylan Shiel, but you would think Essendon bounces back against a winless Adelaide.
The Crows showed some more competitiveness against St Kilda on Monday night, but still have a struggling forward line. Consider Essendon by 1-39 points at $1.85.
TAB ODDS: ADELAIDE $2.65 ESSENDON $1.48
Moneyball: Adelaide has attracted 65 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
WEST COAST V COLLINGWOOD
Optus Stadium, Sunday 3.35pm
I’m surprised the Eagles are relatively firm favourites here.
West Coast has won its past three games, but all have been against bottom-four sides.
Collingwood is coming off an impressive win over top-four side Geelong in Perth and knocked off West Coast at Optus Stadium by one point last year. I’m on the Pies.
TAB ODDS: WEST COAST $1.70 COLLINGWOOD $2.20
Moneyball: Collingwood has attracted 84 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
MELBOURNE v BRISBANE
Metricon, Sunday 6.10pm
Melbourne has been better the past two weeks and has finally put some scores on the board with better forward connection.
But it’s hard to go past a Brisbane side that further sharpened its credentials with a 20-point win over GWS last week. Brisbane also scored a 33-point win when it met Melbourne last year.
TAB ODDS: MELBOURNE $2.60 BRISBANE $1.50
Moneyball: Brisbane has attracted 72 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
FREMANTLE v GEELONG
Optus Stadium, Monday 8.10pm
The Dockers will get another big crowd in for Monday night football, but they face a challenge to send them home happy. Captain Nat Fyfe is still sidelined, one of multiple key injuries crippling the Dockers.
Despite a poor Round 7 performance against Collingwood, the Cats should have too much midfield strength and scoring power.
TAB ODDS: FREMANTLE $2.55 GEELONG $1.52
Moneyball: Geelong has attracted 87 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
ROUND 8 TAB MARKET MOVERS
PREMIERSHIP
Brisbane Lions were $7.50 before Round 7 and are now $6.50 favourites
Collingwood were $7.50 before Round 7 and are now $7
Port Adelaide and Richmond were both $8 before Round 7 and are now $7
GWS were $7 co-favourites before Round 7 and are now $10
Geelong were $10 before Round 7 and are now $15
BROWNLOW MEDAL
Lachie Neale was the $2.60 favourite before Round 7 and is now $2.75
Patrick Dangerfield was $10 before Round 7 and is now $8
Christian Petracca was $26 before Round 7 and is now $11
Petracca opened $501 for this season’s Brownlow minutes after last year’s count finished
Max Gawn was $34 before Round 7 and is now $17
COLEMAN MEDAL
Charlie Dixon was $6 before Round 7 and is now the $3.75 favourite
Jeremy Cameron was $7 before Round 7 and is now $6
West Coast’s Josh Kennedy was $13 before Round 7 and is now $7
Tom Papley was $11 before Round 7 and is now $9
RISING STAR
Izak Rankine was $4 before Round 7 and is now the $2.50 favourite
Max King was $3.50 before Round 7 and is now $3.75
Noah Anderson was $15 before Round 7 and is now $13
Will Day was $51 before Round 7; $21 on Monday and is now $13
Matt Rowell is currently a $15 chance
Originally published as Footy Form: AFL Round 8 tips, best bets and TAB Market Movers
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