Collingwood vs Melbourne: AFL First Qualifying Final betting odds, picks and predictions
As the AFL finals kick off with Collingwood and Melbourne battling at the MCG, who do the odds like?
The 2023 AFL finals kick off with a mammoth matchup as old rivals Collingwood and Melbourne go hammer and tongs in the 1st Qualifying Final at the MCG on Thursday night. Read on for CODE Bet’s AFL betting analysis and best bets for Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons in the 1st Qualifying Final on Thursday September 7.
COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES (1st) vs MELBOURNE DEMONS (4th): 1st QUALIFYING FINAL - AFL FINALS BETTING PREVIEW
COLLINGWOOD: $1.96 (via Ladbrokes)
MELBOURNE: $1.95 (via bet365)
MCG, Thursday, 7.20pm
Full CODE Bet Match Centre here
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT
- After three straight Magpies wins over the Demons, Melbourne won the last matchup between the two 66-62 on King’s Birthday in Round 13.
- Collingwood’s last game and the last three Demons contests have gone under the total points line… despite the last seven Melbourne finals games going over.
- This game finds the AFL’s second-ranked defence (Melbourne) taking on the 3rd (Collingwood).
- Injury outs and the weather could play havoc with this matchup.
THE COLLINGWOOD vs MELBOURNE: AFL FINALS BETTING MATCH-UP
Minor premiers Collingwood ‘host’ fourth-placed Melbourne in the First Qualifying Final at the MCG on Thursday night in what promises to be a clash of mega proportions.
Collingwood looked the class of the AFL all season until losing three of its last five games, but managed to demolish the Bombers in the final round to lock up the top spot on the ladder at 18-5, while the Demons won seven of its last eight to finish 16-7.
Collingwood has won 38 of 62 games (61.3%) at the MCG over the past five seasons, while the Demons are 30-21 in that same span (57.7%).
Collingwood finished the season ranked third for defence in only conceding 73.3 points a game, but gave up 90.8 an outing in its last five. Luckily, the Pies get much-needed defensive reinforcements with Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy set to return.
Offensively the Pies landed fourth in the comp, scoring 93.1 a game and managed 91.8 across its last five, and scored 93.6 in 14 games at the MCG this season.
The Demons offence slipped to sixth overall at 90.4 after a mid-season swoon, but averaged 97 points a game in its 13 MCG games in 2023. Defensively Melbourne landed second in the AFL, conceding a miserly 72.2 points a game: the highest score kicked against them at the ‘G was 104 that Brisbane managed in Round 18.
With the weather in Melbourne not looking promising, the total points line has dipped dramatically to sit around 155.5 mark.
So with the defences on offer – and considering that the last game between the two was played in beautiful conditions on King’s Birthday and still went under – look for this game to buck the trend of the total points over hitting in the last seven Demons finals games.
- Total Points - Under 155.5: $1.91 (via bet365)
HOT OR COLD PIES?
The Pies head into this qualifying final off a big win over Essendon and welcome back defenders Darcy Moore, and Nathan Murphy, but their overall form has been a worry. In the three weeks prior to the Bombers game the Pies allowed 100+ points each game, while there have been weeks where their offence has gone missing.
But Collingwood will look to its overall balance to get past Melbourne and include a couple of bigs in Mason Cox and Darcy Cameron to counteract the Demons defenders.
With no Nick Daicos still for the Pies, look for Daicos The Elder (aka Josh) to continue his impressive run of only dipping below 24 disposals once in his last 10 games. Daicos has also kicked a goal in 70% of those games. He’s also had 25+ and a goal in 10 games this season.
- Josh Daicos - 25 disposals, anytime goal: $3.22 (via Ladbrokes)
Jordan De Goey missed the King’s Birthday clash against Melbourne, but in his last three against them managed 32, 22 and 25 touches, and for his career De Goey averages 21 disposals against the Demons.
This year De Goey’s also averaging almost 24 touches a game and has also booted a goal in three of his last four outings, while in 94 career appearances at the MCG, he has 104 goals.
- Jordan De Goey - 25+ disposals, anytime goal: $3.50 (via bet365)
One other midfielder who has stood up in Daicos The Younger’s absence is Jack Crisp: he’s now hit eight straight games where he’s gone for 20+ disposals. Crisp has also booted at least one goal in three straight finals games.
- Jack Crisp - 20+ disposals, anytime goal: $4.75 (via bet365)
Jamie ‘Billy’ Elliott has proven Collingwood’s most reliable goal kicker this season with 38 for the season and 28 over the last 10 games. Billy has also gone for 3+ in six of his last nine, showing a level of consistency that the Pies will need from him again on Thursday.
- Jamie Elliott - 3+ goals: $3.75 (via bet365)
DEMONIC POSSESSIONS
Melbourne spent the second half of the season rounding into form and with the return of both Clayton Oliver and Bayley Fritsch at the tail end of the year, look primed for a deep finals run.
Most of that oomph starts in the middle with captain Max Gawn, superstar Christian Petracca and the ball-gathering brilliance of Oliver, which has been supplemented superbly this year by Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw.
Petracca has averaged over 26 possessions a game this year and had 28 when the two teams met on King’s Birthday. Since Oliver’s return, Trac hasn’t missed a beat, going for 24, 22 and 29 disposals and kicking at least a goal in each game, while against the Pies, Petracca has also gone for 27+ touches the last four times they’ve met.
- Christian Petracca - 25 disposals, anytime goal: $2.02 (via Ladbrokes)
Clayton Oliver’s return came at the exact right time for the Demons, easing into finals with 27, 14 and 25 disposal games. He’s had a ridiculous 42+ touches in his last two outings against the Pies, has averaged over 30 this year and following a week off, should get plenty of the pill again against the Pies.
- Clayton Oliver - 35+ disposals: $3.70 (via Ladbrokes)
Viney, meanwhile, has been staunch as ever in the Melbourne midfield, ripping off 25+ touch games like they’re going out of fashion. Son Of Todd has now hit 11 straight games of 25+ disposals. On King’s Birthday he was immense as well with 32 disposals, 19 contested possessions, nine clearances and 11 tackles.
- Jack Viney - 25+ disposals: $1.50 (via Ladbrokes)
Up front is where the Demons worries have been for large parts of the year. Kysaiah Pickett and Jacob Van Rooyen have been handy and consistent, kicking 34.24 and 28.9 respectively.
- Kysaiah Pickett - 2+ goals: $1.91 (via bet365)
- Jacob van Rooyen - Anytime goal: $1.31 (via TopSport)
But with Brodie Grundy and Ben Brown unable to have much of an impact, it has fallen to the likes of Alex Neal-Bullen to fill in the gaps.
In his 23 games this year ANB has kicked 18.10 while averaging 15.3 disposals a game. Most importantly, the Hyphen has snagged at least one goal in seven straight night games.
- Alex Neal-Bullen - 15+ disposals, anytime goal: $2.80 (via bet365)
BEST COLLINGWOOD vs MELBOURNE GOAL KICKING BET
Bayley Fritsch returned with a bang for Melbourne, booting five goals against Sydney in the last game of the home and away season.
The Elegantly Haired One also loves playing at the ‘G, having kicked at least two goals in eight of the last nine games there.
After booting 3.3 on King’s Birthday and with a couple of big Demon targets taking pressure off him, Bayley should shake loose for a handful of majors.
- Bayley Fritsch - 3+ goals: $3 (via TopSport)
WHO WINS?
Collingwood lost only three games all season at the MCG: one of which was that King’s Birthday game against Melbourne.
With the return of Bayley Fritsch to the Melbourne forward line, the Demons look slightly stronger than this banged up Pies team head into this one and should squeak out another close win. After all, six of Collingwood’s past eight finals have been decided by 15 points or less.
BEST COLLINGWOOD vs MELBOURNE BET: Melbourne 1-39 $2.40 (via Ladbrokes)
AFL QUALIFYING FINAL - COLLINGWOOD vs MELBOURNE SAME GAME MULTI
- Jack Viney - 25+ disposals
Viney is an elite contested ball winner, who will relish the wet conditions and has had 25+ in the last 11 games.
- Josh Daicos - 25+ disposals
The All-Australian winger has used his elite fitness to build 25+ disposals in five of the last six games.
- Kysaiah Pickett - 2+ goals
Kozzy is a great crumbing forward who will get plenty of opportunities to score in tough, wet conditions.
- Jamie Elliot - 2+ goals
‘Billy’ loves stepping up on the big stage and has kicked 2+ goals in nine of the last 10 matches.
FOUR-LEG SGM @ $9.15 (via Ladbrokes)
[all odds as of September 6]
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Originally published as Collingwood vs Melbourne: AFL First Qualifying Final betting odds, picks and predictions
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