Cats not good enough to take cream as Geelong dynasty ends

GEELONG'S unbelievable run of dominance appears to be over - dare I say it, I don't think they've got the firepower to pinch another flag this year.

Joel Selwood

GEELONG'S unbelievable run of dominance appears to be over. I have a huge amount of respect for the Cats but, dare I say it, I don't think they've got the firepower to pinch another flag this year.

Along with Brisbane in the early 2000s - which also won three flags from four grand finals - Geelong's been the most dominant team in the competition since Hawthorn of the 1980s.

Since the start of 2007, Geelong has played 138 games, winning 113 and losing just 25.

That's a good run by anyone's standards.

It delivered flags in 2007, 2009 and 2011 and lost the 2008 grand final to Hawthorn - despite having more scoring shots than the Hawks.

Before the start of last year people wanted to write off the Cats. The doomsayers thought losing their dual premiership coach Mark Thompson, who had been at the helm for 10 years, and their superstar Gary Ablett would be too much to cover.

They were wrong. The Cats went through the whole season with only two losses and peaked absolutely perfectly in the finals where they played their best football. Was that good management? Luck? Or pure class from the players?

If it was the latter, I might be like the doomsayers of last year and be writing them off too early.

But there's no doubt my confidence in the Cats is waning.

Six years is a long time in modern football for the premiership window to stay open. It's a very long time for the core group to have an appetite hungry enough for sustained success.

Apart from Thompson and Ablett, there have been plenty of other big names who have left the Cattery including assistant coach Ken Hinkley, who was crucial to their development from 2004-09 and is now at Gold Coast.

Brenton Sanderson played 199 games, won a best-and-fairest, was assistant coach from 2007-11 and is now in charge at Adelaide.

Brendan McCartney was at Geelong for 11 years and had a huge influence on everyone he coached, so much so Bomber Thompson took him to Essendon when he made the switch and now he's coaching the Western Bulldogs.

A bloke known as "The Weapon", Dean Robinson, was responsible for Geelong's strength and conditioning during their run of success and he is having the same impact at Essendon.

On the players' side, the Cats have lost a huge amount of talent and experience in dual premiership captain Tom Harley, the Ablett brothers, defender Max Rooke and ruckman Steven King.

Then at the end of last year there was an exodus of big names, which seems to have been too much to replace.

Captain Cameron Ling retired. His leadership and tagging abilities have been sorely missed.

Ruckman Brad Ottens was a big-game player who gave the midfield first use of the footy, while Cameron Mooney and 300-gamer Darren Milburn were generals at either end of the ground.

It's a massive amount of experience on and off the field and that's why it's hard to keep the premiership window open for any longer than they have.

Even the most optimistic of supporters, former star Billy Brownless has conceded the Cats aren't good enough to win the flag this year.

And it would take a lot for Billy to admit that.

Geelong is seventh on the ladder with an 8-5 win-loss record and plays the Gold Coast this week so expect that to go to 9-5, which doesn't sound too bad, does it? But then the Cats have the most demanding run home.

They play Collingwood at the MCG, Essendon in Friday night football at the MCG, Adelaide at Simonds Stadium, Hawthorn on another big Friday night, West Coast in Perth, St Kilda again on Friday night then the Bulldogs, which is the only "easy" game.

To top it off they play Sydney in round 23.

History shows you've got to make the top four to win the flag.

To finish top four they would have to win seven of their last nine games which on current form is unlikely.

Even winning four of their last nine to make the finals is no easy task given their draw.

As is the norm when any era finishes, tough calls need to be made with club greats to keep the list rejuvenated and refreshed.

It's a very fine line between finishing players' careers too early - and often a number of them at once - and playing them a year too long.

Remember the Chad Cornes and Dean Brogan scenario at Port last year? Or Tyson Edwards and Ben Hart at Adelaide?

It's a delicate situation that if handled incorrectly can leave former greats bitter and lost to the club forever.

At Geelong, so far every call it has made in the past few years has been spot on.

Lingy may have squeezed out another year but a lot of players like to go out with a bit of petrol in the tank instead of running on empty.

But the hard calls will keep coming. Next year Matthew Scarlett, Jimmy Bartel, Paul Chapman, Joel Corey, Corey Enright, Josh Hunt, Steve Johnson, James Kelly, James Podsiadly, Orren Stephenson and David Wojcinski are all on the wrong side of 30.

A total of 11 players over the age of 30 is way too many and they can't all stay.

Then Shannon Byrnes, Tom Lonergan and Andrew Mackie hit the big 30 a year later.

The problem Geelong faces is that in the top 10 of last year's best-and-fairest, only Joel Selwood and Harry Taylor are not in this list of players.

Chris Scott had a dream first year as coach when the Cats won the flag after he inherited a super squad.

But he's going to earn his money managing the list and having to make some of the toughest calls I've seen.

What does he do with the following:

Scarlett has mentioned retirement but if he wants to, he's good enough to go again.

Chapman looks to have slowed significantly - but you'd still want him in your side.

Enright and Corey were one-two in the Cats' best-and-fairest last year so still have claims to be there and Podsiadly is still important to their forward line.

Wojcinski's speed is critical but he might simply have to go.

Whichever way the Cats go, they need to move at least three or four players from the list each year for the next three years.

Speed has never been more important in football than it is now and the Cats are badly lacking it.

They need to do what Scott Watters did at St Kilda by injecting Tim Milera, Ahmed Saad and Jack Steven.

They are also struggling around the stoppages which is the most critical area of modern day football.

They're 12th in contested ball, 17th in hard ball gets and 15th in clearances.

Geelong needs to target or develop players to fix this problem and, unfortunately for Port fans, Travis Boak fits the bill perfectly.

All good things come to an end and I don't think I've gone the early crow in saying the Geelong dynasty is over.

If it's good enough for Billy Brownless, it's good enough for me.