Brownlow bias may put Suns' Gary Ablett in shade

IF the Gold Coast were playing finals this year, skipper Gary Ablett would be an unbackable favourite for the Brownlow Medal.

IF the Gold Coast were playing finals this year, skipper Gary Ablett would be an unbackable favourite for the Brownlow Medal.

But with the Suns having won just two games, Ablett will have to defy history to claim his second "Charlie".

The 2009 winner is second favourite for the league best and fairest behind Jobe Watson, whose chances appear to be fading with Essendon's finals hopes.

Ablett also leads The Herald Sun award and is ranked second behind Watson, on 28 votes from 17 games, by AFL statisticians Champion Data whose stats form the rankings of the popular fantasy footy leagues.

Umpires have historically preferred to award top votes to players from the victorious team, which explains why the Brownlow medallist so often comes from sides contending for the premiership.

Not since Hawthorn's Shane Crawford in 1999 has the game's highest individual honour gone to a player whose side did not make the finals.

Since then, nine winners were from sides that made the grand final.

Ablett's eye-catchers

That bias towards the victors means Ablett, who has produced a staggering six 40-plus possession games this year, may struggle to collect too many three-votes tallies for best on ground. Last Sunday's clash with Hawthorn is a classic example.

Ablett collected 43 possessions, booted two goals and was the Foxtel commentary team's unanimous best on ground. But there is a strong chance Hawthorn skipper Luke Hodge will get top votes for his 35-possession effort.

The superstar Suns midfielder has played 14 games where he would not be out of place among the votegetters but, because all bar two were losses, there are no guarantees he even gets minor votes.

Had they all been wins Ablett would probably have earned top votes seven or eight times and a handful of ones and twos, adding up to more than 30 votes which is enough to win the award every year.

Another quirk when considering Ablett's Brownlow chances is his performances in the Suns' two wins.

In the first victory against Richmond he was their best player, but shaded by Tiger Trent Cotchin.

And in the win over the Giants in the second meeting between the two clubs, his possession count was well down on his usual output but he booted three goals and could be considered the reason the Suns won.