AFL Draft’s big flaw exposed in Suns’ three-year gift

The AFL Draft’s big flaw was on display as the Gold Coast Suns pulled off a controversial raid with explosive rumours swirling.

Catch up on the big AFL Draft Talking Points.

Once again the AFL Draft’s big flaw was on display as Gold Coast landed four first-round prospects for very little.

A perennial problem with the bidding system for father-son and Academy players is how it forces one club to become the antagonist, and bid on a rival team’s prospects so they have to match.

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In an ideal world, prospects would receive a bid based on their talent. But we don’t live in an ideal world. And just like Nick Daicos sliding to No.4 a couple of years ago, allowing Collingwood to save points, Gold Coast took advantage of Jed Walter sliding to No.3 (rather than No.2) in the 2023 draft.

We don’t know exactly why North Melbourne chose not to bid on Walter at No.2. But if they were willing to bid on him at No.3, there’s absolutely no reason (in that ideal world we spoke about) why they wouldn’t have done it at No.2, since it would’ve forced Gold Coast to pay more points. They were always going to match the bid, after all.

Most of 2023’s first-round picks together in Melbourne. Photo: Michael Klein

The whisper going around rival clubs was that it was linked to a trade back on October 11, when Gold Coast sent their future end-of-first-round assistance pick to the Kangaroos in exchange for pick 18.

The suggestion is there was a wink-wink element to the deal; whether the Suns explicitly asked the Roos not to bid on Walter with their first pick, or if it was an unspoken element of the deal, we’ll never know. But it’s very similar to GWS not bidding on Nick Daicos (2021) or Will Ashcroft (2022) - coincidentally having completed trades with Collingwood and Brisbane in the months prior to those drafts.

In the lead-up to last year’s draft, where the Giants chose to take Aaron Cadman at No.1 rather than bidding on Ashcroft, their list boss Adrian Caruso told AFL Media: “Will would be a worthy No.1 pick, there’s no doubt about that, whether we call his name out or we don’t, but we’ve got to factor in a whole range of things with that pick one, whether or not we did or we don’t bid.”

Palm Beach Currumbin and Gold Coast Suns Academy gun Jed Walters was the Suns’ first pick in the 2023 AFL Draft. Picture: Chris Hyde

Why does this matter? Well, the Suns saved a couple hundred points when the bid for Walter came at No.3 rather than No.2 - and combined with a few pre-first round trades, had more than enough points to survive a whopping four first-round bids.

They successfully landed Walter (No.3), Ethan Read (No.9), Jake Rogers (No.14) and Will Graham (No.26), all of whom went around where the experts expected - with Walter’s drop from No.2 to No.3 the biggest (given the gap in points between those two picks).

In fact the Suns still have a whopping six picks left, five of them with a points value - 51, 54, 56, 61 and 69 - giving them options heading into day two of the draft.

While they could use the picks to draft more players, it would seem more likely they’d try and trade out into the 2024 draft. Even if they don’t get a lot out of it, a future third or fourth would help them... and they’re gonna need the help.

That’s because the pipeline of Suns Academy talents has grown stronger in recent years, peaking for now with the 2023 crop, but there’s plenty to get excited about over the next two years as well.

Next year, Gold Coast should land Leo Lombard, who a few months ago was good enough to play in their VFL Grand Final triumph - at just 16 years old.

But then comes another bumper crop. While there’s a long way to go until the 2025 Draft, a whopping five Suns Academy prospects were named in the AFL’s Under-16 All-Australian side this year - Kalani White, Zeke Uwland, Dylan Petterson, Jai Murray and Beau Addinsall.

If even a few of them are draft-worthy, the Suns will need to bank points just like they did for 2023’s quartet.

And this is where the flow-on effects from North Melbourne not bidding as early as possible on Walter come into play. By saving points this year, they could turn that into 2024 draft capital - which they can then turn into 2025 draft capital, should they so choose.

Maybe the Suns just end up passing on night two, but at the very least, they’ve shown the points system was absolutely no barrier between them and landing four first-round prospects... and surely it should be a bit harder than that.

Let’s use the Ethan Read as a quick example - they got him at pick 9, only having to pay picks 34 and 38 (with pick 48 turning into pick 49 as well). On paper, that’s two late second-round picks for a top-10 selection... a trade nobody would ever do, ever.

Ethan Read went at pick 9. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

There’s the very real chance the Kangaroos’ late bid gives the Suns the draft capital they need in 2024 and 2025 to successfully nab even more talent. If it means they pay less for their prospects, that helps them get better for a lower price than the AFL intended. In turn, that hurts the other 17 clubs.

“A lot of work has gone into this year’s draft crop, both from a football sense in developing these players since they were 13, to also a strategy perspective over the last three years, planning how we could ensure we would be able to secure all four players through the draft,” Suns national recruiting manager Kall Burns said after the first round was completed.

Of course, in the end, they easily had enough points - 857 of them, to be exact.

Let’s be clear - the Suns aren’t doing anything wrong here. This is the system at fault, not them.

If a team is going to be forced to pay as much as possible, a rival club has to become an antagonist; but that works against the antagonistic club in all other circumstances, hurting the relationship if they need to make trades (as happened with the Kangaroos and Suns, and with the Giants and Magpies/Lions).

It’s much easier for a club to just say sure, we won’t bid on your kid, because that suits them in that immediate circumstance. Why should they act on behalf of the entire league when they have their own issues to worry about first? Nobody is going to be selfless when there’s a chance to be selfish.

We’re not saying there’s an easy solution - a third-party panel determining the value of a prospect, for example, would run into its own issues of fairness - but it’s an exploit clubs with father-son and Academy ties keep using.

Originally published as AFL Draft’s big flaw exposed in Suns’ three-year gift