AFL captains snub Gold Coast and St Kilda in finals predictions

The annual AFL captain’s survey revealed low expectations for a finalist from 2023 and predicted two new coaches won’t play finals and a clear Brownlow pick that isn’t Nick Daicos.

Suns head coach Damien Hardwick will have to perform a miracle. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images)\

Expectations new Gold Coast coach Damien Hardwick can lift the Suns into the finals for the first time are low among the 18 AFL captains, with less than a quarter picking them to make the eight.

The annual captains’ survey also revealed 2022 premiers Geelong aren’t expected to bounce back after missing the finals in 2023, with only two skippers picking them to return to September action.

Unsurprisingly, last year’s grand finalists Collingwood and Brisbane were heavy selections to get back to the last day in September, with GWS, who stormed to the preliminary final, picked as the other major player.

But it was the lack of support for the Suns and Cats, as well as Essendon, Fremantle and the Tigers, that stood out.

Suns head coach Damien Hardwick has a big job ahead. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

The Bombers, Dockers and Tigers, under new coach Adem Yze, were picked by just one other captain to make the finals. Only three skippers picked St Kilda, who were in the top eight all of 2023, to repeat their feat.

Hardwick and the Suns are under the most pressure after chairman Bob East declared making the finals was the minimum expectation after they signed the triple-premiership winner to a six-year deal.

“We need to be playing finals footy, we need to be competing for premierships,” East said.

“If we don’t seize the moment, seize this opportunity, it would be a real shame.”

Among the other standout selections from the captains was Western Bulldogs skipper Marcus Bontempelli as the most favoured to win the Brownlow Medal despite Collingwood star Nick Daicos’ domination in 2023.

Only a late season injury stopped Daicos from storming to victory, but 10 captains picked Bontempelli to win the medal and only two picked Daicos.

Three captains correctly nominated Lachie Neale in 2023.

No.1 draft pick Harley Reid was tipped to take out the Rising Star award, but he’s set to get a stern challenge from North Melbourne’s George Wardlaw.

Marcus Bontempelli is the Brownlow favourite. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

THE CAPTAIN’S SURVEY RESULTS

Q. Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year’s top eight?

(18 times seven selections).

17 – Collingwood

16 – Brisbane

15 – Carlton, GWS GIANTS

14 – Melbourne, Sydney Swans

10 – Adelaide Crows

7 – Port Adelaide

6 – Western Bulldogs

4 – Gold Coast SUNS

3 – St Kilda

2 – Geelong Cats

1 – Essendon, Fremantle, Richmond

Q. Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final?

9 – Brisbane Lions

6 – Collingwood

3 – GWS GIANTS

Q. Which player from another club do you think will win the 2024 Brownlow Medal?

10 – Marcus Bontempelli, Western Bulldogs

2 – Nick Daicos, Collingwood

1 – Charlie Curnow, Carlton; Jordan Dawson, Adelaide Crows; Tom Green, GWS GIANTS; Errol Gulden, Sydney Swans; Darcy Parish, Essendon; Sam Walsh, Carlton;

Q. Which player do you think will win the 2024 AFL Rising Star?

6 – Harley Reid, West Coast Eagles

5 – George Wardlaw, North Melbourne

3 – Ryley Sanders, Western Bulldogs

2 – Colby McKercher, North Melbourne

1 – Blake Howes, Melbourne; Jed Walter, Gold Coast SUNS