AFL 2015: Which teams still have full control of their season’s destiny? Where your side can finish

DOES your team still control its own 2015 destiny? The Champion Data numbers that show where your club is likely to finish at their best or worst.

Each AFL club’s percentage chance of finishing in a given position on the ladder if they were to win all of their remaining games, with every other game simulated based on team quality. Numbers from Champion Data.

FIFTEEN AFL clubs still control their destiny.

With seven rounds to go in the 2015 season, all diehard fans want to know is whether their club still has a chance of going all the way.

Thankfully, Champion Data simulations of the possibilities that remain allow us to see which teams still have a hand in dictating their fates.

By simulating the season, the footy stats gurus are able to see what clubs could either do if they were to storm towards September and win all of their games, or completely collapse and not win again in the home and away rounds.

The numbers reveal that five teams have a shot at the minor premiership if they win every game, ranging from Fremantle’s guaranteed title to Richmond’s 13% chance if they were to repeat 2014’s heroics.

Each AFL club’s percentage chance of finishing in a given position on the ladder if they were to win all of their remaining games, with every other game simulated based on team quality. Numbers from Champion Data.

Even if West Coast were to go undefeated in the remaining rounds they would have a 1% chance of finishing second, despite beating the Dockers on the way home in that hypothetical situation.

The most likely position for the teams sitting in the bottom half of the top eight — GWS, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood and Adelaide — is fourth, with slim chances for the Giants, Dogs and Crows to gain a home qualifying final by winning out.

Every side from Geelong (11th) up would be guaranteed of a finals berth if they were to win the last seven games of the year, based on this simulation.

Port Adelaide have a 82% chance of making the finals if they win the remainder of their games, most likely reaching seventh or eighth if they were to reach a total of 13 wins.

For St Kilda, Melbourne and Essendon it’s tougher, with the 5-10 sides having at most a 33% chance (Bombers) of playing finals by reaching 12 wins, but most likely still finishing outside of the finals places.

Carlton could finish as high as 10th with a miraculous undefeated end to the season while the Suns and Lions could reach 11th.

Each AFL club’s percentage chance of finishing in a given position on the ladder if they were to lose all of their remaining games, with every other game simulated based on team quality. Numbers from Champion Data.

At the other end of the spectrum, even Fremantle could drop out of the top eight if they were to lose every game for the rest of the reason.

Even Sydney, currently sitting at 11-4, would have a 6% chance of playing finals if they were to lose the rest of their games.

At six wins so far, Port Adelaide are safe from ‘winning’ the wooden spoon, unable to drop that far in this simulation.

The Saints, Demons and Bombers could all still achieve the feat, given a 1 or 2% chance each of finishing last by losing out.

Gold Coast or Brisbane would win the wooden spoon if they didn’t win again this year while Carlton could still avoid it, given a 24% chance of finishing 16th or 17th with a 3-19 record.

As always, don’t take this as gospel — it’s just one way of looking at the season.

Originally published as AFL 2015: Which teams still have full control of their season’s destiny? Where your side can finish