Crows have momentum to go top

WARNING, Crows players - do not read this article. I don't want to jinx you, but I'm tipping you to finish minor premier in season 2012.

Taylor Walker

WARNING, Crows players - do not read this article.

Go and enjoy your mid-season break this weekend because you deserve it.

I don't want to jinx them or have the players getting ahead of themselves, but I'm tipping the Crows to finish minor premier in season 2012.

No, I haven't lost the plot. If you look back, I tipped them to finish in the top-four at the start of the year and copped a heap of criticism.

As I did last year, when I also predicted a top four finish, only for them to underachieve badly.

But this season is obviously very different, no injuries, a new coach, new game plan and a rejuvenated list. They are now playing to their full potential but still have some upside about them.

With the mid-season bye upon them, Adelaide is one of four sides equal top of the AFL ladder with an impressive 8-2 record. The others are West Coast, Essendon and Collingwood.

It's funny how history repeats itself. This year reminds me of 2005 when Neil Craig took over and led Adelaide from 12th (eight wins) in 2004 to minor premier in 2005 with 17 wins.

Last year the Crows slumped to 14th with seven wins and now I'm tipping them to win as many as 18 games this season.

They've already got eight on the board and with a favourable draw ahead, I'm expecting big things.

The major challenges in the run home will be the round 15 Showdown with Port Adelaide, playing West Coast Eagles at AAMI Stadium in round 17, travelling to Geelong in round 18 and hosting Essendon in round 19.

So to make 18 wins, they can only afford to drop two of their final 12 games.

It seems a lot but when you break it down, it's very achievable.

Especially if they win 2-3 of the four tough games mentioned above, and avoid any unnecessary slip-ups.

Three months is a long time in football and lots of things can change quickly.

Let's have a look at what can change the Crows' destiny in 2012, both for better or worse:

INJURIES

SO far they've avoided any disasters with only a few minor injuries keeping players out.

This is very rare but Adelaide has had more than its fair share of injuries in the past six to eight years and was due for some luck.

SUSPENSION

BIG Tex Walker has just returned from missing two games for his tackle on Geelong's Harry Taylor,

and was lucky not to be rubbed out for a slide earlier in the season.

Midfielders being tagged heavily need to be careful not to get frustrated as they are targeted in the run home, and one wayward punch could potentially cost them a month on the sidelines.

FATIGUE

MOST teams at some stage throughout the year will go through a patch where everyone starts to feel tired or heavy in the legs.

The Crows have been "up" since the start of the NAB Cup and we all know how long the season is.

The fact they've had no injuries means that most of the club's best 22 have played every game.

The trick now will be resting the players at the right times, and in the right fashion, without compromising their mental preparation and form. This is a very hard aspect to manage but Geelong, with the help of Sanderson, did it perfectly last year.

EXPECTATION

IT'S very different being the "hunted" instead of the "hunter" and the opposition will now be taking a very close look at why Adelaide has climbed the ladder.

Scott Thompson, Patrick Dangerfield and Rory Sloane will be watched closer. Opposition ruckmen will find ways to go against Sam Jacobs, teams won't always allow Brent Reilly to be loose and so on.

IMPROVEMENT

DESPITE Adelaide's resurgence, not all players have been at their best in the first 10 rounds.

Jason Porplyzia, David Mackay, Richard Douglas, Chris Knights and to a lesser extent Bernie Vince can all improve significantly in the second half of the year.

If Porps hits the heights of his 57 goals in 2009 he adds another dimension to the forward line.

Mackay, Douglas and Vince can add even more depth to an already cracking midfield.

Chris Knights could be, and I repeat could be, the ace in the pack. If he can replicate his 2009 form and come into the side with his speed and goalkicking ability, he could be yet another X-factor.

In a season that has already produced many surprises and upsets, it's quite possible that anything could happen in the remaining 12 rounds.

But given even luck across all sides, Crows supporters should definitely not be booking holidays in early September, unless you're planning on being in Adelaide or Melbourne.

IT'S timely to look at the hits and misses of the season so far.

Aside from the Crows, other teams to have surprised me with their "upside" are Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond and Sydney.

I thought Collingwood might slide a little in season 2012 but Nathan Buckley and his injured troops have proved me wrong.

If they can regain some of their best players they will take a power of beating.

Essendon has surprised everyone including themselves and I just keep waiting for them to fall over.

But the longer they go without tripping, the less likely it is that they will.

Richmond has always promised but rarely delivered and finally it might be their turn.

Their wins over Hawthorn and St Kilda, a cracking game on Friday night, have the Tiger faithful finally coming out of the closet.

Sydney also has a favourable draw and just keeps getting the job done. They do however need Shane Mumford and Adam Goodes fit and Sam Reid back in form to continue to challenge.

On the flipside, the misses of the season are Carlton, Fremantle, Melbourne, Gold Coast and dare I say it, Geelong.

Carlton's last three weeks have been woeful. They have crumbled like a pack of cards with injuries taking a toll.

If they are fair dinkum they need to stand up otherwise Brett Ratten is in trouble because I have them missing the top eight.

Fremantle looked a lot better against Adelaide on the weekend and if they play like that more often, they could challenge for the eight, but have so far been disappointing under Ross Lyon.

The Demons may have turned the corner, after a win against Essendon, but they have been nothing short of a rabble this year.

They would want to improve a lot in the run home to justify the coaching group they assembled.

I thought Gold Coast might have been one of the big improvers this year but they have gone backwards.

I knew players could have second-year blues but not an entire club.

This will help the Crows keep Tippett in Adelaide but a sharp spike next year wouldn't surprise me.

I love Geelong and respect them greatly but they just can't seem to get into top gear. I'm not writing them off, but maybe the loss of coaches and players over the last three years has finally caught up with them.

But they may make me eat my words come September.