Victoria’s booming birth areas and old folks’ areas driving real estate deals and shaping the state’s future
Hotspot suburbs have emerged across the state where soon-to-be parents break the budget at auctions and cashed-up retirees are driving super hard bargains. SEE THE SUBURBS
Victorians buying into the state’s nappy valleys, where the birthrate is surging, are breaking their budgets and shelling out tens of thousands more as they look to lock in a dream home.
But agents selling in tombstone towns, where deceased estates are more common, have revealed a greater share of cashed-up retirees are often able to negotiate a lower price because they don’t make offers subject to finance.
KPMG analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data on births and deaths has highlighted the top suburbs for both life stages.
RELATED: Forever homes: Families refuse to leave Melbourne’s most ‘welcoming’ suburbs
Gen Y, Gen X & Boomers: who’s the highest property achiever?
Millennial moves: Why young families are leaving our cities – again
The financial services giant picked out the Mickleham-Yuroke region in Melbourne’s north as the state’s fountain of youth, with 783 births, almost two a day, in 2023.
Rockbank, Mt Cottrell, Aintree and Thornhill Park in Melbourne’s west were next, with local agents revealing nesting parents-to-be would often pay a premium for their dream home.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Mornington Peninsula, other seaside towns and even some of the state’s regional centres — including the Wonthaggi-Inverloch region — have had hundreds of residents pass.
KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said locations with significant housing developments, dominated by affordable homes, had seen a boom in births.
Regions where deaths outpace births often have a concentration of aged care homes; fewer younger buyers due to limited development; or younger generations who have moved for economic reasons.
“Then there are coastal locations such as Rosebud, Lakes Entrance, and Portarlington where people retired to 20 years ago and now have a higher proportion of elderly residents,” Mr Rawnsley said.
Bombay Real Estate associate director Jatin Mehta said Victoria’s top births’ region, an area including Mickleham, attracted a lot of first-home buyers thanks to the affordability of larger houses, having several schools and a multicultural community.
“Mickleham is a place where people settle down, not where they buy a unit, stay for a few years and then upgrade to a bigger home,” Mr Mehta said.
He has seen couples expecting a baby bid higher than their set budget at auctions as their delivery date looms, including one family who went $40,000 above their limit.
Ray White Officer director Gavin Staindl, whose patch includes the birth hotspot Pakenham, said $500,000-$750,000 could usually secure a three-bedroom house in the area.
Local homeowners are active on social media, petitioning for infrastructure including a cinema and department stores in their suburb, which would make it even more family friendly.
As Christmas approaches, he has observed pregnant vendors hoping to sell before their baby arrives, while expecting buyers want to be settled in their future school zone.
“Even if it’s $5000 above what they want to pay, some buyers will spend that if it means they are in a home by their timeline,” he said.
Ray White Wollert director Mike Assaad is no stranger to soon-to-be and new parents experiencing heightened emotions at auctions.
“It gets to the point where, when we knock the hammer down, they are screaming,” Mr Assad said.
While he still sees buyers starting a family go above their desired price range, nowadays this happens less due to the rising cost of living and higher interest rates.
Belle Property Dromana principal Grant McConnell said plenty of retirees headed to Rosebud and surrounds for the coastal lifestyle an hour from Victoria’s capital.
Buyers who have sold their former family home in suburban Melbourne were often able to offer Peninsula sellers a cash settlement.
“The majority of our sales are unconditional sales,” Mr McConnell said.
He added that some homeowners preferred to deal with buyers who could pay immediately, even for a price $5000 to $10,000 below their asking range, rather than those who made offers subject to finance.
For husband and wife Norman Vellien and Melodie Naidoo, buying their first home in Pakenham was a major life milestone.
The couple, originally from Mauritius, came to Australia as international students less than a decade ago.
“To have a house in eight years is a massive achievement, I think,” Mr Vellien said.
They are now parents to on Matteo, who will turn three in March, and have a pet greyhound, Mia, and a rabbit, Brune.
Before buying their new home, Mr Vellien and Ms Naidoo were renting in the Cranbourne North area and spent months saving to buy a home, with the aim of doing so by this November.
Mr Vellien, a semi-professional soccer player, who played White Star Dandenong this year, said that he put the money earned from his role as goalkeeper towards their savings.
And while he and his wife sometimes worry about finances and wondered if they would achieve their goal of buying a house, their strong Catholic faith helped them stay hopeful.
Positive signs along the way, such as when they were told they would have to pay $4000 in conveyancer’s fees but the sum ended up being $2000, also assisted in boosting their spirits.
Mr Vellien said Pakenham’s affordable property prices, schools, shops, parks and 61km distance to Melbourne’s CBD attracted them to the area.
Handily, it’s close to their work and tertiary studies in the city’s southeast.
“We wanted a good work-life balance and that means you can’t have a massive mortgage,” Mr Vellien said.
Mr Vellien and Ms Naidoo faced some competition for the unit they bought and then moved into less than a fortnight ago, with about five buyers putting in offers.
“We came in pretty strong because we really loved the house,” Mr Vellien said.
They like that their new home is not a townhouse and that it has a decent-sized backyard and a garage.
The pair purchased the two-bedroom abode through Mr Staindl, who had the listing for what was formerly his grandmother’s home.
Mr Staindl said his own mother, who organised the sale, had hoped a first-home buyer family would purchase the residence.
Pakenham was a Victorian birth hotspot in 2023, with 401 babies born to residents.
Victoria’s Top 10 Nappy Valleys
Mickleham, Kalkallo area
Births in 2023: 783
Median residents’ age: 30.6 years old
Rockbank, Aintree area
Births in 2023: 680
Median residents’ age: 31.5 years old
Wollert area
Births in 2023: 581
$680,000
Median residents’ age: 31.4 years old
Werribee, Mambourin area
Births in 2023: 549
Median residents’ age: 32.2 years old
Clyde North and South area
Births in 2023: 499
Median residents’ age: 30.8 years old
Cranbourne South, Botanic Ridge area
Births in 2023: 448
Median residents’ age: 32.8 years old
Beaconsfield, Officer area
Births in 2023: 428
Median residents’ age: 33.6 years old
Wallan, Wandong area
Births in 2023: 424
Median residents’ age: 33.6 years old
Melton South, Weir Views area
Births in 2023: 420
Median residents’ age: 31.6 years old
Tarneit area
Births in 2023: 412
Median residents’ age: 29.9 years old
Victoria’s Top 10 Tombstone Towns
Region: Rosebud, McCrae area
Number of deaths in 2023: 345
Median residents’ age: 52.3 years old
Wonthaggi, Inverloch area
Number of deaths in 2023: 288
Median residents’ age: 51.5 years old
Moe, Newborough area
Number of deaths in 2023: 287
Median residents’ age: 44.2 years old
Wangaratta area
Number of deaths in 2023: 274
Median residents’ age: 44.2 years old
Wheelers Hill area
Number of deaths in 2023: 265
Median residents’ age: 47.8 years old
Kangaroo Flat, Golden Square area
Number of deaths in 2023: 242
Median residents’ age: 42 years old
Boronia area
Number of deaths in 2023: 231
Median residents’ age: 39.2 years old
Grovedale, Mt Duneed area
Number of deaths in 2023: 229
Median residents’ age: 36.1 years old
Frankston North area
Number of deaths in 2023: 221
Median residents’ age: 38 years old
Bairnsdale area
Number of deaths in 2023: 217
Median residents’ age: 45.1 years old
Source: KPMG, Australian Bureau of Statistics, PropTrack.
-Additional reporting by Tom Bowden
Sign up to the Herald Sun Weekly Real Estate Update. Click here to get the latest Victorian property market news delivered direct to your inbox.
MORE: Melbourne homebuyers’ ‘last chance’ to secure land under $500k | RPM
Indian interest in Melbourne homes surges, also US and NZ among top international buyers
Labor’s new housing deal needs three tweaks to be game changing
Originally published as Victoria’s booming birth areas and old folks’ areas driving real estate deals and shaping the state’s future
‘Act immediately to survive’: Grampians towns evacuated as winds change
Residents in multiple Grampians towns have been urged to take shelter as a matter of survival as firefighters battle an “uncontrollable” bushfire.
‘Horrendous’: Andy Lee, Bec Harding infuriate neighbours
One of Australia’s much loved comedians Andy Lee has managed to get on the nerves of locals over something that is only going to get bigger and noisier.
Total fire ban declared for Victoria as Boxing Day scorcher looms
High temperatures and strong winds are set to create the perfect storm for firefighters already tackling a huge blaze in the Grampians, with a total fire ban declared across Victoria for Boxing Day.